When being contrarian in daily fantasy sports, there's a fine line between taking a calculated risk and being reckless. But differentiating your lineups from everyone else's is the name of the game if you plan on taking down one of those highly lucrative DFS tournaments. Whether it's because of bookmaker totals, other options at a given position, or some gem you've found that everyone is overlooking, we can always find potential under-rostered plays if we look hard enough.
Here are three such players to consider branching out for on FanDuel's main slate.
Chris Paddack, P, San Diego Padres ($7,500)
We have a solid nine-game slate tonight with a variety of pitching options.
Both Trevor Bauer and Tyler Glasnow are the best two pitchers on the slate, but both have some potential drawbacks. Glasnow hasn't looked as sharp in some of his recent starts, while Bauer faces an always dangerous Houston Astros lineup. This may cause you to look elsewhere for pitching, and Chris Paddack is an option to consider.
Paddack has been a bit up and down this season but still comes in with a 3.95 xFIP, 21.9% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate while allowing only 0.74 HR/9. We'd like to see more strikeouts from him to boost his fantasy potential, but limiting home runs is always a good thing.
Tonight, he'll be up against the Milwaukee Brewers' lineup, which has been lackluster this season, to say the least. This year versus right-handed pitchers, they come in with a 77 wRC+ (29th in the league), .143 ISO (24th), 26.6% strikeout rate (3rd), 34.1% fly-ball rate (21st), and 32.7% hard-contact rate (11th).
The Brewers' offense is certainly lacking a bit of juice this season and is one worth attacking tonight.
Randy Arozarena, OF, Tampa Bay Rays ($4,100)
For some reason, the Tampa Bay Rays have a 4.02 implied run total tonight, and that's far too low.
This is a team that has won 11 of their last 12 games and now gets to face Mike Minor, who is not a pitcher you need to be afraid of. He comes in with a 4.31 xFIP, 1.43 HR/9, modest 24.3% strikeout rate, and 42.3% fly-ball rate against right-handed hitters. Those are some truly average-to-bad numbers across the board, and with the power the Rays have, why is their total so low?
This is why I'm turning to Randy Arozarena and the Rays tonight for that power upside. This season, Arozarena has posted a 138 wRC+, .200 ISO, 40.0% hard-contact rate, and 36.4% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers.
If other DFS players are going to be shying away from the Rays in tournaments tonight, they make a great team to target with this matchup.
Mike Yastrzemski, OF, San Fransico Giants ($3,000)
The San Francisco Giants shouldn't be too chalky tonight, and they have a great matchup.
With a 4.56 implied run total, the Giants sit with the seventh-highest total on the slate, and it's just okay. They don't jump off the page at first glance, but this is a team you should consider tonight.
They are going up against Merrill Kelly, who has a 4.67 xFIP and low 17.8% strikeout rate while allowing 1.06 HR/9 and a 42.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters this season. He is a middle-of-the-road MLB pitcher, and the lack of strikeout/shutdown potential from him, combined with the home runs, makes him the type of pitcher I like to attack.
This means we want power from the Giants' lineup, and that means Mike Yastrzemski is a great choice. He comes in with a 149 wRC+, massive .307 ISO, .338 wOBA, 37.7% hard-contact rate, and 50.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Those are some serious power numbers and not only does this put Yastrzemski in a great spot, but he is also only $3,000!