numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers
Over 8.0 (-115): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Giants Moneyline (-136): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The pitching matchup in this one pits Alex Wood versus Jordan Lyles. That gives the San Francisco Giants a big advantage, and our model likes San Fran more than oddsmakers do.
Lyles has pitched to a 5.07 SIERA and 16.8% strikeout rate in 118 2/3 innings since the start of 2020. He's not good. He's permitted at least three earned runs in three straight starts, and Lyles is taking on a Giants lineup that owns the 10th-best wOBA against righties (.320).
Wood has been a key part of a very successful Giants rotation, spinning a 3.54 SIERA and 24.9% strikeout rate in 2021. The Texas Rangers' lineup struggles against southpaws, posting the fourth-worst wOBA (.293) in the split.
Our projections identify good betting value on the Giants moneyline as well as the total. We project San Fran to win 5.67-3.87 and give them win odds of 66.5%. The -136 moneyline implies win odds of only 57.6%. We also have the over hitting 58.7% of the time.
Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays
Over 7.5 (-110): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The Tampa Bay Rays have ace Tyler Glasnow going while the Washington Nationals turn to Jon Lester. The Rays obviously have a huge edge on the mound, but that's reflected in the moneyline as Tampa is -240 to win. The betting value can be found on the total.
Let's start with Lester, because our numbers have the Rays doing the heavy lifting toward getting us to the over. Lester just isn't any good anymore, struggling to a 4.99 SIERA and 16.2% strikeout rate since the start of 2020. He should be in a world of trouble today against the Rays, and we project Tampa Bay to plate 5.31 runs.
So we don't need too much from the Nats' offense against Glasnow. That's a good thing, because Glasnow is dealing this campaign to the tune of a 2.92 SIERA and 35.6% strikeout rate. If we're looking for a ray (sorry) of hope for Washington, we can find it in the 41.3% fly-ball rate Glasnow allows to lefties. Maybe Juan Soto, Josh Bell or Kyle Schwarber runs into one.
Our algorithm projects Tampa Bay to win 5.31-3.92. That's 9.23 total runs, and we forecast the over to hit 64.0% of the time.