Unlike last night's rather thin pitching slate, Tuesday's 15-gamer is loaded with viable options, and we'll have our work cut out for us to narrow down our favorites. It's also a Coors Field night, as the Colorado Rockies are looking at a hefty implied total, but they're hardly the only offense with high expectations tonight.
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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.
Pitchers
Brandon Woodruff ($11,400): Some of the top stacks on the board will require a good chunk of salary to roster, which could make getting up to Woodruff tricky tonight, but he's definitely worth finding space for. The Milwaukee right-hander has produced an excellent 3.03 SIERA, 31.0% strikeout rate, and 5.9% walk rate this season, and he hasn't seen any noticeable dip in those numbers this month as some others have since the foreign substance crackdown. This is a juicy matchup against a Cubs team that's staring at a pitiful 3.05 implied total and is striking out 26.5% of the time versus righties.
Robbie Ray ($10,800): Ray is right there with Woodruff as one of the night's best options, and he also gets us $600 back in our pockets. Not only are Ray's peripheral numbers right there with Woodruff's, but he's turned it up a notch in the month of June, posting a 2.70 SIERA, 36.4% strikeout rate, and 6.8% walk rate over his last five starts. Home runs are still a problem for Ray, but with everything else clicking, he's now posted 43 or more FanDuel points in four of those five outings, including two cracking 50 points. His matchup also stands out this evening, as he's up against the Mariners, who are showing an 88 wRC+ and 27.7% strikeout rate versus left-handers this season.
James Kaprielian ($8,000): If you're looking for more cap space, Lucas Giolito and Charlie Morton are good choices in the sub-$10,000 range, but once you get past $9,000, Kaprielian is a guy to consider. That's because he's up against the lowly Rangers, a team that enters the night with a 91 wRC+ and 25.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching. In fact, Texas has one of the slate's lowest implied totals at 3.69. As for Kaprielian, he has a solid 25.7% strikeout rate, though walks are sometimes an issue at a 10.6% clip. Note that there's a massive gap between Kaprielian's strikeout rate versus righties (32.3%) compared to lefties (18.1%), but the good news is that the Rangers' top lefty hitters (Joey Gallo and Nate Lowe) tend to whiff a lot.
Others to Consider: Walker Buehler ($10,000), Lucas Giolito ($9,800), Charlie Morton ($9,000), Trevor Rogers ($8,700)
Stacks
Colorado Rockies: On the hitting side, we begin with Coors Field, where the Rockies find themselves in a fantastic spot at home versus Chase De Jong. Over five starts, De Jong has recorded a poor 4.93 SIERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, and 10.5% walk rate, and he's found little success across his limited MLB stints over the years, compiling a 6.46 ERA across 78.0 career innings. What should also get us excited is De Jong's nonexistent ground-ball rate (25.7%), which has led to him coughing up a whopping 51.4% fly-ball rate.
The only downside is that this isn't the most exciting Rockies lineup, and they're collectively getting quite the salary hike on Tuesday. Still, it's hard to ignore this matchup and Colorado's enormous 6.16 implied total.
Trevor Story ($4,400) isn't having one of his best campaigns, but he's still the top bat in this lineup, while guys like Charlie Blackmon ($3,700) and Ryan McMahon ($4,100) will have the platoon advantage. C.J. Cron ($3,700) is one of the better power threats with a solid 10.3% barrel rate. Considering those hefty salaries, Yonathan Daza ($3,000) will be a necessity in many stacks as the likely number-two hitter.
Boston Red Sox: The Rockies aren't the only team hovering around a six-run implied total, with the Red Sox boasting an enticing 6.35 mark on another hot and humid evening at Fenway. Brad Keller has typically kept the ball in the park through a high ground-ball rate, but that hasn't been the case in 2021, as he's allowing 1.42 home runs per nine innings. He has a low strikeout rate and high walk rate versus both lefties and righties, but he's actually showing worse underlying numbers against the latter with a 5.35 xFIP, 14.4% strikeout rate, and 10.8% walk rate.
That should put us back on J.D. Martinez ($3,800) and Xander Bogaerts ($3,700), and Hunter Renfroe ($2,800) lines up as an excellent value again following an explosive night at the plate on Monday. Additionally, Enrique Hernandez ($3,300) may have reclaimed the leadoff job, giving him a boost. There's also no reason to shy away from the lefties, too, with Rafael Devers ($3,700) always being a no-brainer -- just look at those Statcast metrics -- and Alex Verdugo ($3,100) is easy to like at his salary.
San Diego Padres: The above teams are hardly the only teams with high implied totals, as the Blue Jays, Indians, and Yankees all check in above five runs, and the Astros will almost certainly join them when their number is out. We also have the Pirates on the other side of that Coors game, and they'll likely see lower roster percentages compared to the Rockies.
But let's touch on the Padres -- yet another team with a high total -- who deserve our attention against Tony Santillan. With Santillan making just his fourth MLB start, we don't have a huge sample to go off of, but early returns show a 4.70 SIERA over his first 13 2/3 innings, and he's already allowed three home runs off a 51.4% fly-ball rate. Although the young righty has shown some punchout potential with a 25.0% strikeout rate, he's also struggled with walks (12.5% rate), which is another plus for San Diego.
To top it all off, the Padres get a park factor boost in Great American Ball Park, and this will also be the second time they've seen Santillan this month. Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,700) and Manny Machado ($3,600) are the usual guys to start with, but the salaries get pretty appealing after those two between Jake Cronenworth ($3,300) and Tommy Pham ($3,000), along with everyone in the bottom half of the order.
Others to Consider: Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, Oakland Athletics, Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals