numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals
Yankees Moneyline (-154): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Yankees -1.5 (-104): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The New York Yankees are sizable favorites tonight at the Kansas City Royals, but our model thinks they should be even bigger favorites.
The pitching matchup is Nestor Cortes against Daniel Lynch. Advantage Yankees.
Cortes has a 3.78 SIERA and 27.3% strikeout rate in 2021. Although just four of his 12 appearances have been starts, he's permitted only three earned runs across 10 frames over his last two appearances, both of which were starts.
As for Lynch, the left-handed rookie has struck out just 16.4% of hitters in his first 27 MLB innings. Righties have a .370 wOBA against him, which should spell trouble versus the likes of Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, and Luke Voit.
Our projections have the Yankees winning 5.62-3.87, and we give them win odds of 66.0%. The -154 moneyline implies win odds of only 60.6%. As such, we rank New York on the moneyline as a two-star bet. We also have them covering as 1.5-run favorites 55.3% of the time.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Rangers +1.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Rangers Moneyline (+190): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Two rising hurlers face off in this one as Kolby Allard and Logan Gilbert take the hill.
Allard, a former highly touted prospect for the Atlanta Braves, is having his best campaign to date after some early-career woes. Through 81 2/3 innings, he's sporting a 4.13 SIERA, 21.0% strikeout rate, and 5.2% walk rate. The SIERA and walk rate are career-best clips by a wide margin, and he's taking on a Seattle Mariners offense that sits just 27th in wOBA for the year (.297).
Gilbert has a great matchup, as well, as the Texas Rangers are dead last in wOBA for the season (.288) as well as the last 14 days (.255). Gilbert can cruise if he's on as he boasts a 3.58 SIERA and 28.2% strikeout rate. He has, however, given up at least three runs in three straight outings -- allowing 10 earned runs over 13 1/3 innings in that time.
Our model has the Mariners winning 4.27-3.64, but there's some value on Texas. We project the underdog Rangers to cover 1.5 runs 58.4% of the time. We also give them a 40.1% chance to win while their +190 moneyline implies win odds of 34.5%.