numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers

Rangers +1.5 (-120): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Rangers Moneyline (+134): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

The Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers close out their series this afternoon (2:05 p.m. EST), and it'll be Chris Flexen and Spencer Howard on the bump. It should be a tight affair, and our model gives the M's a 51.7% chance to win.

But given the lines -- which have the underdog Rangers at +134 to win and -120 to cover 1.5 runs -- the value lies on the Texas side.

Howard was once a prospect of note with the Philadelphia Phillies, and he's getting his shot with Texas. He's shown decently well so far, posting a 4.66 SIERA, 24.7% strikeout rate and 11.6% swinging-strike rate in 33 2/3 MLB frames this year. His bugaboo has been free passes (12.7% walk rate), but he never had a double-digit walk rate at any stop in the minors outside of his very first pro stint. Other than walks, the rest of Howard's 2021 numbers are solid.

Flexen -- funny enough -- has the exact same 4.66 SIERA, but his strikeout rate is only 16.3%. He's permitted 14 earned runs over his last 21 2/3 innings. Flexen's outlook today is certainly enhanced by a soft matchup with a Texas offense that has been truly dreadful across the last 30 days (.252 wOBA), but he's unlikely to overpower even the Rangers.

As I said at the jump, we project Seattle to win 51.7% of the time, so this is close to a toss-up. We have the Rangers covering at a 60.2% rate, and we rate a Texas runline bet as a two-star gamble. Taking the Rangers to win outright is a one-star bet.

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees

Twins +1.5 (+120): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Twins Moneyline (+220): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

The New York Yankees are playing their best ball of the season and are fresh off a pivotal sweep of the Boston Red Sox. And I'm telling you to bet on the Minnesota Twins?

Yes, I am.

That's what our projections point to tonight.

While Jameson Taillon -- the Yanks' starter -- sports an ERA of 1.53 over 35 1/3 second-half innings, once you pop the hood, things don't look as juicy. He's running a .265 BABIP in the split while his homer-to-fly-ball rate is an unsustainably low 4.3% (it was 14.7% in the first half). A lot of his underlying numbers, including a 21.1% strikeout rate and 4.85 xFIP, point to an average pitcher.

The Twins are swinging it well lately, so they can take advantage. Over the last seven days, Minnesota sits seventh in wOBA (.358) and is striking out just 19.4% of the time, the eighth-lowest rate. Losing Nelson Cruz was a blow, but Max Kepler, Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco are still pretty good. And the Twins get a park boost at Yankee Stadium.

Minnesota's John Gant figures to have his hands full with New York's offense, but he won't be out there for long in what should be a bullpen game. The Yankees still have so much swing and miss in their lineup as they carry the highest strikeout rate (28.7%) over the past week.

All in all, our model projects the Yankees to win 56.5% of the time, but that creates value on Minnesota at their current odds. At +220 on the moneyline, the Twins implied win odds are only 31.3%, but we have the likelihood of them them winning at 43.5%. We also think they cover at a clip of 61.1%, giving that bet a three-star rating and making it our highest-rated bet of the day (as of Thursday morning).