We've got all 30 teams in play on Friday night's slate, and yet it's pretty easy to whittle down our top pitching options, with two in particular standing out above the crowd. I'm not sure the same can be said for our bats, where we find quite a few strong lineups in plus matchups. Note that weather could be a factor in a handful of spots.
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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.
Pitchers
Aaron Nola ($10,000): A quick glance at Nola's game log doesn't show a ton of consistency of late, but when he's on, he's demonstrated an incredible ceiling. This includes coming one out away from a complete game twice in his last six starts, resulting in scores of 57 and 60 FanDuel points. The Phillies aren't afraid to give him a long leash, as he reached 117 and 116 pitches in those starts.
Those outings came against the Padres and Braves, too, so not exactly cupcake opponents -- unlike tonight when he faces the lowly Diamondbacks. Arizona's active roster owns a lackluster 83 wRC+ and 25.1% strikeout rate versus righties this year, and they may also be missing their best hitter, Ketel Marte, who left last night's game early due to hip discomfort. On paper, this is a spot where Nola should thrive.
The veteran right-hander is showing strong peripherals this season, owning a 3.34 SIERA, 29.3% strikeout rate, and 5.6% walk rate. There could be some rain in the forecast, though, so that will be something to keep tabs on.
Gerrit Cole ($11,200): Cole has a tough draw versus the Athletics, but he's another guy whose upside isn't in question. Despite a dip in punchouts in June, Cole has ramped back up in the later summer months, and he's one of just three qualified starters with a season strikeout rate above 34%. He also ranks second in the league behind only Corbin Burnes in SIERA and strikeout-minus-walk rate.
Oakland only has a 21.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching, so Cole will have his work cut out for him, but he clearly has the firepower to overcome just about any matchup. Throwing at pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum should give Cole an assist, too, and the Athletics come in with a mere 3.41 implied total.
Joe Musgrove ($9,200): Rostering Musgrove might drive you mad in 2021, but at least his strikeouts have come around more often recently, as he's posted a 30.6% strikeout rate over the last 30 days (five starts). And despite the ups and downs, he's still displaying a pristine 3.48 SIERA, 28.1% strikeout rate, and 6.5% walk rate for the year, and the Angels' lineup drops off in a hurry once you get past Shohei Ohtani.
While it's admittedly hard to trust Musgrove, some of his best FanDuel scores have occurred over the past month or so, and his underlying numbers aren't far behind Nola's and Cole's.
Stacks
Tampa Bay Rays: As of this writing, the Rays are showing the top implied total on the board at nearly six runs (yay!), but this is also the game with perhaps the biggest weather concerns (boo...).
But if this one plays, we can deploy what has been a very familiar tactic in 2021: stack against Matt Harvey.
This season, Harvey's posted a 5.25 xFIP, 18.3% strikeout rate, and 46.2% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. In same-sided matchups, he's only allowed a 26.6% fly-ball rate but gives up plenty of contact off of a measly 16.1% strikeout rate. Lefties are the preference, but Harvey isn't doing anything special in either split.
Brandon Lowe ($3,900), Austin Meadows ($3,300), and Wander Franco ($3,900) give us a trio of solid bats with the platoon advantage, while the right-handed Nelson Cruz ($3,800) is always a no-brainer when you can fit him in. Joey Wendle ($2,600) isn't super exciting, but he gives us a value lefty to work with.
Toronto Blue Jays: We have no real rain worries out in Detroit, which is where we find the Blue Jays facing a struggling Matt Manning. The young right-hander has shown a complete inability to get punchouts with a 12.0% strikeout rate and 6.6% swinging-strike rate, which doesn't bode well for him against this Toronto juggernaut.
Manning also only holds a 40.6% ground-ball rate versus righties, so Toronto's top power bats shouldn't have any trouble piling up fly balls and line drives. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,500), Marcus Semien ($3,900), Teoscar Hernandez ($3,800), and Bo Bichette ($3,600) are locked and loaded in the top four spots in the order, with Guerrero and Hernandez owning the highest barrel rates of the group.
After that, everyone else comes in at mid-to-low salaries, including more righties with some pop in Lourdes Gurriel ($3,100) and Randal Grichuk ($2,700).
Manning gets more grounders versus lefties but also comes in with a comically bad 8.5% strikeout rate and 5.90 xFIP in the split, so Corey Dickerson ($2,600) is a top-notch value.
Boston Red Sox: Boston's seemingly endless supply of cushy matchups continues on Friday against southpaw Logan Allen, who has some of the worst numbers of the entire slate. Across his seven starts this season -- most of which came earlier this campaign -- he's put up a 5.68 xFIP, 13.9% strikeout rate, and 10.2% walk rate. His work in Triple-A this year hasn't inspired much confidence, either, as he's submitted a 5.17 xFIP, 22.6% strikeout rate, and 12.6% walk rate.
Allen hasn't logged high pitch counts in most of his outings, so he's unlikely to reach even five innings, but that won't matter if the Red Sox get to him right away. J.D. Martinez ($3,800) and Xander Bogaerts ($3,800) lead the way here, along with leadoff man Enrique Hernandez ($3,600).
Bobby Dalbec ($2,600) has come alive with some truly massive performances this month, dropping his strikeout rate to a more palatable 25.0% in August while posting a .408 ISO.
Others to Consider: Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals