numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves
Astros Moneyline (+100): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
With the series knotted at 1-1, things shift to Atlanta for Game 3, and we've got Ian Anderson and Luis Garcia going.
Garcia had been struggling down the stretch and in the postseason after a stellar rookie campaign, but he put together a stellar outing last time out, tossing 5 2/3 innings of one-hit ball against the Boston Red Sox in the clinching game of the ALCS. Garcia ended the regular season with a 3.91 SIERA and 26.4% strikeout rate. He was a key cog for Houston.
In a postseason where starters have been given a very short leash, Anderson is a perfect example. Despite some good numbers (3.86 SIERA and 24.0% strikeout rate) in these playoffs, Anderson has completed five innings just once. He's been better in the small sample of this postseason than he was in the regular season, where he had a 4.38 SIERA, 23.2% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate.
The teams had Thursday off, so with each bullpen rested and ready to rock, neither starter is likely to go too deep.
Anderson definitely has the tougher matchup between the two, as Houston had the second-best wOBA (.336) this campaign with the lowest strikeout rate (19.4). Plus, the loss of the DH in a National League park doesn't hurt Houston's lineup too much, as Yordan Alvarez will likely shift to the outfield and Jose Siri should be the bat from the Game 2 lineup who drops out of the starting nine.
Our model has this game as basically a 50-50 toss-up as we project Houston to win 50.3% of the time. With Houston at +100 on the moneyline, backing the Astros to win is the top bet -- per our algorithm -- on a night where betting value is hard to come by.