3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 4/26/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
George Springer To Hit a Home Run (+370)
The Toronto Blue Jays have plenty of power in their lineup, and that could be on full display tonight.
With a 4.55 implied run total, the Blue Jays are among the top-tier teams on tonight's slate, and they could push past that total with their matchup against Nick Pivetta. Last season, Pivetta allowed 1.41 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, along with a 44.1% fly-ball rate and a 34.0% hard-contact rate. He's always been a bit of a home run prone pitcher, and facing a dangerous Blue Jays lineup, we could see multiple balls go over the wall.
We turn to George Springer, who ended last year with a very solid .299 ISO, 135 wRC+, a 48.5% fly-ball rate, and a 34.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. He's essentially checking every box that I like to see when it comes to identifying hitters who are in a spot to hit a home run.
Yuli Gurriel Over 2 Total Bases (+105)
The Houston Astros are going to be a popular option in DFS tonight, but we'll turn to their player props.
Taylor Hearn will be on the mound for the Texas Rangers and that leads to the Astros carrying a 4.50 implied run total. Last year, he allowed a .340 wOBA, a 5.10 xFIP, 1.52 HR/9, a 41.0% fly-ball rate, and a 37.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. This puts the Astros in a great spot to put up some runs in a hurry and cash in on some player props.
Yuli Gurriel had some strong numbers versus left-handed pitchers last season with a 151 wRC+, a .204 ISO, a .389 wOBA, a 44.6% fly-ball rate, and a very low 8.2% strikeout rate. He doesn't waste any chances at the plate and has plenty of power upside in this split.
Anthony Rizzo To Record an RBI (+135)
Anthony Rizzo and the New York Yankees have a phenomenal matchup against Jordan Lyles tonight.
The short answer -- Lyles isn't a good pitcher, and we should be attacking him whenever he's on the slate.
The long answer -- last season, Lyles allowed a .347 wOBA, a 5.63 xFIP, 1.75 HR/9, a 45.3% fly-ball rate, and a 37.9% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters. Those are some of the worst numbers you will find on this slate -- or really any slate this season. Hence, we want to attack Lyles.
The Yankees are carrying a strong 4.59 implied run total, and we want to get a player prop from their offense. Rizzo to record an RBI has a juicy +135 line, and with his .318 wOBA, .197 ISO, and 42.1% fly-ball rate last season versus right-handed pitchers, he can cash in on that prop in one swing.
