Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | Aaron Sanchez | 11 | 5.80 | 52.2% | 36.2% | 22.9% | 13.3% | 7.1% |
| WSH | Antonio Senzatela | 11 | 5.20 | 41.9% | 26.8% | 15.5% | 8.2% | 4.0% |
| HOU | Tarik Skubal | 8.5 | 4.72 | 33.5% | 19.8% | 10.6% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| MIL | Hunter Greene | 8 | 4.68 | 32.8% | 19.3% | 10.2% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| PHI | Taijuan Walker | 8 | 4.42 | 28.3% | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| TOR | Aaron Civale | 8 | 4.36 | 27.3% | 15.1% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| MIN | Spenser Watkins | 8 | 4.33 | 26.8% | 14.8% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| LAA | Rich Hill | 7.5 | 3.99 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| DET | Jose Urquidy | 8.5 | 3.78 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| BAL | Chris Archer | 8 | 3.67 | 16.6% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| CLE | Jose Berrios | 8 | 3.64 | 16.1% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| NYM | Aaron Nola | 8 | 3.58 | 15.3% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| BOS | Shohei Ohtani | 7.5 | 3.51 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| TB | Robbie Ray | 6.5 | 3.37 | 12.6% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| CIN | Adrian Houser | 8 | 3.32 | 12.0% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| MIA | Nick Martinez | 6.5 | 3.25 | 11.1% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| SD | Jesus Luzardo | 6.5 | 3.25 | 11.1% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| SEA | Shane McClanahan | 6.5 | 3.13 | 9.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | NYM | 6.9 | 91.4% | 82.0% | 68.9% | 53.8% | 38.9% | 26.1% | 16.1% |
| Shohei Ohtani | BOS | 6.7 | 90.1% | 79.7% | 65.8% | 50.3% | 35.5% | 23.1% | 14.0% |
| Robbie Ray | TB | 6.2 | 86.7% | 74.2% | 58.7% | 42.7% | 28.5% | 17.5% | 9.9% |
| Logan Webb | STL | 6.0 | 84.4% | 70.8% | 54.6% | 38.6% | 24.9% | 14.8% | 8.1% |
| Shane McClanahan | SEA | 5.9 | 83.9% | 70.0% | 53.6% | 37.6% | 24.1% | 14.2% | 7.7% |
| Jose Berrios | CLE | 5.7 | 82.2% | 67.6% | 50.8% | 34.9% | 21.8% | 12.5% | 6.6% |
| Jesus Luzardo | SD | 4.7 | 69.5% | 51.1% | 33.7% | 19.9% | 10.7% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| Adrian Houser | CIN | 4.7 | 68.4% | 49.8% | 32.5% | 19.0% | 10.0% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Nick Martinez | MIA | 4.6 | 67.9% | 49.2% | 31.9% | 18.6% | 9.8% | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| Hunter Greene | MIL | 4.5 | 66.1% | 47.2% | 30.0% | 17.2% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Rich Hill | LAA | 4.5 | 65.8% | 46.8% | 29.7% | 16.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Jose Urquidy | DET | 4.4 | 63.9% | 44.7% | 27.8% | 15.5% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Taijuan Walker | PHI | 4.3 | 61.6% | 42.2% | 25.7% | 13.9% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Tarik Skubal | HOU | 4.1 | 59.0% | 39.5% | 23.4% | 12.4% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Aaron Civale | TOR | 4.1 | 57.6% | 38.1% | 22.3% | 11.6% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Antonio Senzatela | WSH | 4.0 | 57.0% | 37.5% | 21.8% | 11.3% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Miles Mikolas | SF | 4.0 | 56.7% | 37.1% | 21.5% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Chris Archer | BAL | 3.6 | 48.3% | 29.2% | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Aaron Sanchez | COL | 3.4 | 44.6% | 26.0% | 13.2% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Spenser Watkins | MIN | 3.2 | 40.0% | 22.1% | 10.7% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
| Batter | Team | Opp | PA | Proj HR | HR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | PHI | NYM | 4.36 | 0.34 | 23.4% |
| J.D. Martinez | BOS | LAA | 4.19 | 0.32 | 22.4% |
| Hunter Renfroe | MIL | CIN | 4.09 | 0.32 | 22.4% |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | CLE | 4.63 | 0.32 | 22.4% |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | DET | 4.25 | 0.32 | 22.4% |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | NYM | 4.58 | 0.31 | 21.9% |
| C.J. Cron | COL | WSH | 4.27 | 0.30 | 21.4% |
| Brandon Lowe | TB | SEA | 4.36 | 0.30 | 21.4% |
| George Springer | TOR | CLE | 4.85 | 0.28 | 20.4% |
| Gary Sanchez | MIN | BAL | 4.14 | 0.28 | 20.4% |
| Jared Walsh | LAA | BOS | 4.29 | 0.28 | 20.4% |
| Jesus Aguilar | MIA | SD | 4.66 | 0.26 | 19.3% |
| Matt Chapman | TOR | CLE | 4.3 | 0.26 | 19.3% |
| Randal Grichuk | COL | WSH | 4.38 | 0.25 | 18.7% |
| Max Kepler | MIN | BAL | 4.47 | 0.25 | 18.7% |
| Lourdes Gurriel | TOR | CLE | 4.52 | 0.25 | 18.7% |
| Randy Arozarena | TB | SEA | 4.8 | 0.25 | 18.7% |
| Jesus Sanchez | MIA | SD | 4.43 | 0.25 | 18.7% |
| Jorge Soler | MIA | SD | 4.55 | 0.24 | 18.2% |
| Byron Buxton | MIN | BAL | 4.91 | 0.24 | 18.2% |
| Willy Adames | MIL | CIN | 4.54 | 0.24 | 18.2% |
| Darin Ruf | SF | STL | 4.53 | 0.23 | 17.6% |
| Javier Baez | DET | HOU | 4.54 | 0.23 | 17.6% |
| Gio Urshela | MIN | BAL | 4.36 | 0.23 | 17.6% |
| Trevor Story | BOS | LAA | 4.64 | 0.23 | 17.6% |
| Rafael Devers | BOS | LAA | 4.42 | 0.23 | 17.6% |
| Ty France | SEA | TB | 4.44 | 0.23 | 17.6% |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | MIN | 4.3 | 0.23 | 17.6% |
| Carlos Correa | MIN | BAL | 4.69 | 0.22 | 17.0% |
| Brandon Drury | CIN | MIL | 4.65 | 0.22 | 17.0% |
| Josh Bell | WSH | COL | 4.54 | 0.22 | 17.0% |
| Taylor Ward | LAA | BOS | 4.85 | 0.22 | 17.0% |
| Pete Alonso | NYM | PHI | 4.37 | 0.22 | 17.0% |
| Brandon Crawford | SF | STL | 4.31 | 0.21 | 16.3% |
| Wilmer Flores | SF | STL | 4.42 | 0.21 | 16.3% |
| Rhys Hoskins | PHI | NYM | 4.03 | 0.21 | 16.3% |
| Anthony Santander | BAL | MIN | 4.52 | 0.21 | 16.3% |
| Wander Franco | TB | SEA | 4.69 | 0.21 | 16.3% |
| Nelson Cruz | WSH | COL | 4.43 | 0.20 | 15.7% |
| Rougned Odor | BAL | MIN | 4.19 | 0.20 | 15.7% |
| Jorge Polanco | MIN | BAL | 4.58 | 0.20 | 15.7% |
| Joc Pederson | SF | STL | 4.64 | 0.20 | 15.7% |
| Austin Meadows | DET | HOU | 4.42 | 0.20 | 15.7% |
| Garrett Cooper | MIA | SD | 4.32 | 0.20 | 15.7% |
| Trevor Larnach | MIN | BAL | 4.25 | 0.20 | 15.7% |
| Andrew McCutchen | MIL | CIN | 4.31 | 0.19 | 15.1% |
| Mike Trout | LAA | BOS | 4.74 | 0.19 | 15.1% |
| Anthony Rendon | LAA | BOS | 4.51 | 0.19 | 15.1% |
| Xander Bogaerts | BOS | LAA | 4.31 | 0.19 | 15.1% |
| Max Stassi | LAA | BOS | 4.18 | 0.19 | 15.1% |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | TOR | 4.33 | 0.19 | 15.1% |
| Austin Hays | BAL | MIN | 4.08 | 0.19 | 15.1% |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | DET | 4.03 | 0.19 | 15.1% |
| Jazz Chisholm | MIA | SD | 4.77 | 0.19 | 15.1% |
| Franmil Reyes | CLE | TOR | 3.89 | 0.18 | 14.4% |
| Juan Soto | WSH | COL | 4.65 | 0.18 | 14.4% |
| Bo Bichette | TOR | CLE | 4.74 | 0.18 | 14.4% |
| Bobby Dalbec | BOS | LAA | 3.97 | 0.18 | 14.4% |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | CLE | 4.07 | 0.18 | 14.4% |
| Eduardo Escobar | NYM | PHI | 4.25 | 0.17 | 13.7% |
| Manny Machado | SD | MIA | 4.45 | 0.17 | 13.7% |
| Jurickson Profar | SD | MIA | 4.34 | 0.17 | 13.7% |
| Enrique Hernandez | BOS | LAA | 4.53 | 0.17 | 13.7% |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | PHI | 4.48 | 0.17 | 13.7% |
| Sam Hilliard | COL | WSH | 3.94 | 0.17 | 13.7% |
| Jo Adell | LAA | BOS | 4.40 | 0.17 | 13.7% |
| Tyler Stephenson | CIN | MIL | 4.32 | 0.17 | 13.7% |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SD | MIA | 3.78 | 0.17 | 13.7% |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | DET | 4.59 | 0.16 | 13.1% |
| Christian Yelich | MIL | CIN | 4.42 | 0.16 | 13.1% |
| Austin Hedges | CLE | TOR | 3.67 | 0.16 | 13.1% |
| Tom Murphy | SEA | TB | 3.88 | 0.16 | 13.1% |
| Jeimer Candelario | DET | HOU | 3.98 | 0.16 | 13.1% |
| Christian Arroyo | BOS | LAA | 3.75 | 0.16 | 13.1% |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | BOS | 4.63 | 0.16 | 13.1% |
| Tyler O'Neill | STL | SF | 4.42 | 0.16 | 13.1% |
| Nolan Arenado | STL | SF | 4.31 | 0.15 | 12.4% |
| Jonathan Schoop | DET | HOU | 4.09 | 0.15 | 12.4% |
| Trayce Thompson | SD | MIA | 4.00 | 0.15 | 12.4% |
| Jesse Winker | SEA | TB | 4.33 | 0.15 | 12.4% |
| Alex Bregman | HOU | DET | 4.36 | 0.15 | 12.4% |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | MIN | 4.64 | 0.15 | 12.4% |
| Dylan Moore | SEA | TB | 3.66 | 0.15 | 12.4% |
| Miguel Cabrera | DET | HOU | 4.31 | 0.14 | 11.6% |
| Jean Segura | PHI | NYM | 3.92 | 0.14 | 11.6% |
| Robbie Grossman | DET | HOU | 4.65 | 0.14 | 11.6% |
| Eugenio Suarez | SEA | TB | 4.22 | 0.14 | 11.6% |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | NYM | 4.25 | 0.14 | 11.6% |
| Luis Urias | MIL | CIN | 3.76 | 0.14 | 11.6% |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | WSH | 3.82 | 0.14 | 11.6% |
| Zack Collins | TOR | CLE | 4.19 | 0.14 | 11.6% |
| Abraham Toro | SEA | TB | 4.55 | 0.14 | 11.6% |
| Yadiel Hernandez | WSH | COL | 4.31 | 0.14 | 11.6% |
| Jason Vosler | SF | STL | 3.87 | 0.14 | 11.6% |
| Charlie Blackmon | COL | WSH | 4.49 | 0.13 | 10.9% |
| Trey Mancini | BAL | MIN | 4.41 | 0.13 | 10.9% |
| Yandy Diaz | TB | SEA | 4.47 | 0.13 | 10.9% |
| Ryan McMahon | COL | WSH | 4.16 | 0.13 | 10.9% |
| Alex Verdugo | BOS | LAA | 4.08 | 0.13 | 10.9% |
| Rowdy Tellez | MIL | CIN | 4.20 | 0.13 | 10.9% |
| Chas McCormick | HOU | DET | 3.92 | 0.13 | 10.9% |
| Mike Moustakas | CIN | MIL | 4.43 | 0.12 | 10.2% |
| Avisail Garcia | MIA | SD | 4.21 | 0.12 | 10.2% |
| Tommy Pham | CIN | MIL | 4.54 | 0.12 | 10.2% |
| Odubel Herrera | PHI | NYM | 3.80 | 0.12 | 10.2% |
| Mark Canha | NYM | PHI | 4.59 | 0.12 | 10.2% |
| Luis Torrens | SEA | TB | 4.00 | 0.12 | 10.2% |
| Paul DeJong | STL | SF | 3.87 | 0.12 | 10.2% |
| Austin Slater | SF | STL | 3.98 | 0.12 | 10.2% |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | MIA | 4.56 | 0.12 | 10.2% |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | NYM | 4.47 | 0.12 | 10.2% |
| Keibert Ruiz | WSH | COL | 4.20 | 0.12 | 10.2% |
| Alejo Lopez | CIN | MIL | 3.98 | 0.12 | 10.2% |
| Didi Gregorius | PHI | NYM | 4.14 | 0.11 | 9.4% |
| Tucker Barnhart | DET | HOU | 3.87 | 0.11 | 9.4% |
| James McCann | NYM | PHI | 3.81 | 0.11 | 9.4% |
| Elias Diaz | COL | WSH | 4.05 | 0.11 | 9.4% |
| Brian Anderson | MIA | SD | 4.10 | 0.11 | 9.4% |
| Josh Naylor | CLE | TOR | 4.11 | 0.11 | 9.4% |
| Andres Gimenez | CLE | TOR | 3.78 | 0.11 | 9.4% |
| Paul Goldschmidt | STL | SF | 4.53 | 0.10 | 8.6% |
| Jacob Stallings | MIA | SD | 3.88 | 0.10 | 8.6% |
| Yulieski Gurriel | HOU | DET | 4.14 | 0.10 | 8.6% |
| Harrison Bader | STL | SF | 4.09 | 0.10 | 8.6% |
| Kyle Farmer | CIN | MIL | 4.09 | 0.10 | 8.6% |
| Dominic Smith | NYM | PHI | 3.92 | 0.10 | 8.6% |
| Luis Arraez | MIN | BAL | 4.80 | 0.10 | 8.6% |
| Trent Grisham | SD | MIA | 3.89 | 0.10 | 8.6% |
| Joey Bart | SF | STL | 3.76 | 0.10 | 8.6% |
| Jeremy Pena | HOU | DET | 3.81 | 0.10 | 8.6% |
| Rene Pinto | TB | SEA | 3.91 | 0.10 | 8.6% |
| Eric Hosmer | SD | MIA | 4.23 | 0.09 | 7.8% |
| Jose Iglesias | COL | WSH | 3.71 | 0.09 | 7.8% |
| Martin Maldonado | HOU | DET | 3.70 | 0.09 | 7.8% |
| Cesar Hernandez | WSH | COL | 4.76 | 0.09 | 7.8% |
| J.P. Crawford | SEA | TB | 4.11 | 0.09 | 7.8% |
| Colin Moran | CIN | MIL | 4.21 | 0.09 | 7.8% |
| Albert Almora Jr. | CIN | MIL | 3.87 | 0.09 | 7.8% |
| Brandon Nimmo | NYM | PHI | 4.70 | 0.09 | 7.8% |
| Harold Ramirez | TB | SEA | 4.58 | 0.09 | 7.8% |
| Dylan Carlson | STL | SF | 3.76 | 0.09 | 7.8% |
| Ramon Urias | BAL | MIN | 3.97 | 0.09 | 7.8% |
| Santiago Espinal | TOR | CLE | 3.96 | 0.09 | 7.8% |
| Akil Baddoo | DET | HOU | 3.76 | 0.09 | 7.8% |
| Jose Azocar | SD | MIA | 4.11 | 0.09 | 7.8% |
| Manuel Margot | TB | SEA | 4.24 | 0.08 | 7.0% |
| Omar Narvaez | MIL | CIN | 3.98 | 0.08 | 7.0% |
| Myles Straw | CLE | TOR | 4.56 | 0.08 | 7.0% |
| Connor Joe | COL | WSH | 4.60 | 0.08 | 7.0% |
| Luis Gonzalez | SF | STL | 4.09 | 0.08 | 7.0% |
| Lorenzo Cain | MIL | CIN | 3.87 | 0.07 | 6.2% |
| Kolten Wong | MIL | CIN | 4.65 | 0.07 | 6.2% |
| Jeff McNeil | NYM | PHI | 4.14 | 0.07 | 6.2% |
| Andrew Velazquez | LAA | BOS | 3.96 | 0.07 | 6.2% |
| Thairo Estrada | SF | STL | 4.20 | 0.07 | 6.2% |
| Jorge Mateo | BAL | MIN | 3.75 | 0.07 | 6.2% |
| Steven Kwan | CLE | TOR | 4.44 | 0.07 | 6.2% |
| Michael Brantley | HOU | DET | 4.48 | 0.06 | 5.4% |
| Yadier Molina | STL | SF | 3.98 | 0.06 | 5.4% |
| Maikel Franco | WSH | COL | 4.09 | 0.06 | 5.4% |
| Owen Miller | CLE | TOR | 4.22 | 0.06 | 5.4% |
| TJ Friedl | CIN | MIL | 4.76 | 0.06 | 5.4% |
| Alcides Escobar | WSH | COL | 3.87 | 0.05 | 4.5% |
| Robinson Chirinos | BAL | MIN | 3.86 | 0.05 | 4.5% |
| Raimel Tapia | TOR | CLE | 4.41 | 0.05 | 4.5% |
| Amed Rosario | CLE | TOR | 4.00 | 0.05 | 4.5% |
| David Fletcher | LAA | BOS | 4.07 | 0.05 | 4.5% |
| Harold Castro | DET | HOU | 4.2 | 0.05 | 4.5% |
| Austin Nola | SD | MIA | 4.67 | 0.05 | 4.5% |
| Nick Gordon | MIN | BAL | 4.03 | 0.05 | 4.5% |
| Julio Rodriguez | SEA | TB | 3.77 | 0.05 | 4.5% |
| Starling Marte | NYM | PHI | 4.03 | 0.04 | 3.7% |
| Kevin Kiermaier | TB | SEA | 4.02 | 0.04 | 3.7% |
| Jon Berti | MIA | SD | 3.99 | 0.04 | 3.7% |
| Taylor Walls | TB | SEA | 4.13 | 0.04 | 3.7% |
| Roman Quinn | PHI | NYM | 3.69 | 0.03 | 2.8% |
| Victor Robles | WSH | COL | 3.98 | 0.03 | 2.8% |
| Tommy Edman | STL | SF | 4.64 | 0.03 | 2.8% |
| Corey Dickerson | STL | SF | 4.20 | 0.02 | 1.9% |
| Christian Vazquez | BOS | LAA | 3.86 | 0.01 | 0.9% |