Over the course of according to Mike Axisa, the Kansas City Royals recently signed the aforementioned 29-year-old Kris Medlen to a two-year contract worth a guaranteed $8.5 million. I don't see Beachy signing that lucrative of a deal, however. While Beachy is a year younger than Medlen, he never put up the type of numbers Medlen did in 2012 and 2013. Medlen earned his two-year, $8.5 million deal by throwing a combined 335 innings and having a 2.47 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Because of Beachy's injury risk and overall lack of experience, any team he signs with will more than likely give him an incentive based deal that will pay him depending on how much he pitches and how well he performs.
Three weeks ago, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reported that Beachy had finally settled on a team, and that it wouldn’t be the Twins, Braves or Rangers. There's been no news since then, but it'd make sense to see Beachy sign somewhere before Spring Training.
Three teams that I would keep an eye on as potential landing spots for Beachy are the Yankees, Tigers and Reds. Last year, all three teams ended up in the bottom half of the league in terms of ERA. The Reds led the trio with a combined 3.59 ERA, the Yankees were close behind with a 3.75 ERA, and the Tigers finished with a disappointing 4.06 ERA. None of these clubs drastically improved their rotation this offseason, so let's take a look at why Beachy would be a good fit for each team.
New York Yankees
The Yankees current rotation projects to be tore a ligament in his elbow but opted not to have Tommy John surgery. Whenever a pitcher takes this route, there's always a chance that they re-injure themselves and ultimately need surgery anyway. This, in combination with Sabathia's age and injury history (only had eight starts in '14), as well as Pineda's injury-plagued past, put the Yankees on a very thin sheet of "starting pitchers" ice.
In terms of Warren and Capuano, both are seemingly better fits for the bullpen. In his big league career, Adam Warren has only made three big league starts and none since 2013. While Warren has starting experience in the minors -- 90 starts -- there's no guarantee he'd successfully slide back into that roll after coming out of the bullpen for two seasons. Capuano, who is going into his 11th major league season, has never had an ERA as low as Beachy's 3.68 in 2011 and has a career ERA of 4.28. Based off his age and career ERA, Capuano is not the answer the Yankees are looking for.
The Yankees used 13 different starting pitchers last year, which included 77 starts from shoulder injury, but nonetheless, he enters the 2015 season as a huge wildcard for the Reds.
In an already shallow rotation, the Reds need more depth if they want to compete in the tough NL Central. If they happen to fall out of the race early in the season, we could see a blockbuster trade including their ace Johnny Cueto, who is in the last year of his contract. If the Reds become sellers instead of buyers, the Indiana-born Beachy becomes an ideal fit as an inexpensive reclamation project, similar to the Royals-Medlen situation.
A Chance Worth Taking
Brandon Beachy is only 28 years old and won’t turn 29 until September. While his once promising career has been derailed by injuries, he's still young enough to bounce back and regain some of his career 3.23 ERA capability. A good comparison to Beachy and his situation is that of Kazmir earned a minor league deal with the Cleveland Indians. The seemingly washed up Kazmir went on to have an ERA of 4.04, FIP of 3.51 and even struck out more than a batter an inning.
This expectation-surpassing performance led to a contract with the A's for 2014, where Kazmir pitched his way to a 3.55 ERA and a 3.15 FIP, as well as earning a trip to the All-Star Game. When Kazmir signed that deal, he was 29 years old, which is one year older than Beachy's current age. For a couple of million dollars, the risk is well worth the reward of a potential number three starter and the next Scott Kazmir.