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Pitchers
Lucas Giolito ($10,200)
Through eight starts this season, Sunday's most expensive option cannot be ignored when considering his outstanding 2.95 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (FIP) and 33.3% strikeout percentage in 42.1 innings.
Even at his second highest salary point this season, Giolito stands as numberFire's third overall pitcher with a 32.0 fantasy projection and 6.3 strikeouts against a Tampa Bay Rays' team sporting a vulnerable .293 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 21.9% strikeout percentage.
Kevin Gausman ($10,100)
In a favorable matchup against a Minnesota Twins' team with a .269 wOBA and a 27.5% strikeout percentage, Gausman stands as numberFire's top pitcher with a 38.4 Fantasy expectation, 3.8 value rating, and 7.2 strikeouts.
While it may be tempting to save salary with pitching options under 10K with so many appealing offensive spots, Toronto's ace deserves heavy consideration in all formats when examining his impressive 2.48 expected FIP, 28.7% K-percentage, and 16.9% swinging strike rate.
With six Twins' batters with K-rates over 22.5%, Gausman is an important decision point for today's slate with his mouth-watering spot.
Zac Gallen ($9,800)
After a 2.9% decrease, Arizona's right-hander has a great opportunity for a ceiling return on his discounted salary against a Pittsburgh Pirates' lineup with an overall .289 wOBA and a 21.7% strikeout percentage.
Despite a recent drop in his K-rate (-2.7% difference from his career 27.2% mark), the 26-year old has still been in overall good form through 50.1 innings this season, accounting for a 3.63 expected FIP, a 48.5% ground-ball percentage, and a 9.8% swinging strike rate.
Among Sunday's 22 pitchers, numberFire's models currently rank Gallen fifth among his position with 5.56 strikeouts.
Patrick Sandoval ($9,600)
In his fourth opportunity starting in the Major Leagues, Sandoval has been solid despite inconsistent command, recording a 3.82 expected FIP (career 3.88 mark) and a 22.7% strikeout rate through 43.1 innings.
Although his opposing lineup has displayed some patience against left-handers (11.4% walk pecentage), the Angels' starter still has an enticing opportunity versus a Philadelphia Phillies' team with a eye-dropping 30.2% K-rate in this particular split the last two seasons.
Stacks
Despite two recent quiet offensive games at Coors Field, Atlanta's offense contains today's top run total at a gaudy 6.2 mark against Colorado's inexperienced right-hander Ryan Feltner.
In his second stint in the Majors, Feltner has been relatively average at the big league level, accounting for a career 4.29 expected FIP and a worrisome 9.7% walk percentage while his AAA metrics display similar production with a 4.59 expected mark in 38.1 minor league innings this season.
With obvious struggles versus lefty bats (career 5.10 expected FIP), Atlanta stacks can start with Matt Olson (.363 expected wOBA, 10.6% barrel rate), Ozzie Albies (.417 expected slugging), and Michael Harris II (.419 expected slugging) while Ronald Acuna (.411 wOBA, 14.5%), Austin Riley (.411 expected wOBA, 17.5% barrel rate) and Dansby Swanson (10.5% barrel rate) all are in ideal batted ball form.
Charlie Morton will take the mound against a Colorado team projected for an undervalued 5.1 runs. Although the veteran has been stellar throughout most of his career, Morton has been in concerning form this season when comparing his 4.75 expected FIP to his career mark at 3.79 and recent opposing barrel rate (6.8% to career 4.9%).
With current struggles against batters from the opposing side of the plate (5.33 expected FIP in 23.0 innings this season), Ryan McMahon (9.3% barrel rate, .353 expected wOBA) and Charlie Blackmon (.269 expected average) stand out first while C.J. Cron (12.8% barrel rate, .510 expected slugging), Yonathan Daza (.381 expected wOBA, .460 expected slugging), and Brendan Rodgers (9% barrel percentage) can round out potential stacks.
Outside Coors Field, the Astros continue to earn respect from the gambling world with an impressive 5.9 run total against Kansas City's left-hander Jon Heasley.
Through 34.0 career innings, the 25-year old has really struggled throughout his MLB experience, producing a 6.52 expected FIP and an unsightly 12.8% walk rate.
To best combat Heasley's trouble against righty hitters (6.64 expected FIP, 5.8% K-rate), core Houston bats can include Jose Altuve (.373 expected wOBA, .496 expected slugging), Alex Bregman (.357 expected wOBA, 7.4% barrel rate), Jeremy Pena (11.1% barrel rate, .510 expected slugging) and Chas McCormick (12.1% barrel percentage, .510 expected slugging).