numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles
Orioles Moneyline (+106): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model favors the underdog Baltimore Orioles today in what is priced as close to a coin-flip matchup with the Chicago Cubs.
Jordan Lyles and Marcus Stroman are starting on the bump.
Lyles has surprisingly been decent in 2022. Through 62 innings, he's pitched to a 4.07 SIERA, his best mark since 2018. He's limiting juicy contact with a 31.3% hard-hit rate and 33.2% fly-ball rate, which has helped Lyles allow only 1.02 homers per nine.
Lyles has done all this despite 6 of his 11 starts coming against the Boston Red Sox or New York Yankees. The Cubs' offense has actually been solid this year, ranking 11th in wOBA, but they're not the Yanks or Sox.
Stroman has mostly been a quality arm this year for the Cubbies, but he's had a few blow-up outings. He permitted nine earned runs in four innings last time out against the St. Louis Cardinals, and he gave up seven runs in 4 1/3 frames earlier this year to the Tampa Bay Rays. He's up against an O's attack that is in a groove right now, sitting ninth in wOBA (.336) over the last seven days.
We have this game as a very even matchup, but we give the Orioles win odds of 50.7%. Their +106 moneyline price implies odds of 48.5%. Taking Baltimore to win is a one-star bet.
St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays
Over 7.5 (-115): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Packy Naughton and Corey Kluber are the starting pitchers for this interleague game, and our model thinks this total is too low.
Naughton has been good in a very small sample this season, but for his brief career, he owns a 4.81 SIERA and 15.5% strikeout rate. He's struggled in the bigs, and our projections have the Tampa Bay Rays getting to him for 4.54 runs.
Kluber has a 22.3% strikeout rate and 3.59 SIERA. He's been pretty nice this year for the Rays. But with the total at just 7.5 runs and Tampa projected to have success against Naughton, we shouldn't need too much from the offense of the St. Louis Cardinals -- which just welcomed back Tyler O'Neill last night -- for the over to hit. We have St. Louis plating 4.02 runs.
That's 8.56 runs in all, and we give the over a 58.4% chance to hit, rating it as a two-star wager.