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Pitchers
Kevin Gausman ($10,600)
numberFire's second ranked pitcher is Saturday's most expensive option after Gausman's FanDuel salary increased 4.9% to his highest point despite recording his worst performance of the season in his last outing.
While his most recent result was somewhat unlucky when comparing his 7.36 Earned Run Average (ERA) to his 4.29 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP), Gausman has overall been in amazing form through 64.2 innings this season, accounting for a sparkling 2.59 xFIP, a 27.5% K-rate, and a 16.3% swinging strike.
In a good opportunity to rebound against a Detroit Tigers' lineup with a projected 27.3% strikeout percentage and a .279 weighted on-base average (wOBA), our models expect Gausman to record 38.1 FanDuel points and 6.3 strikeouts.
Zack Wheeler ($10,500)
Philadelphia's ace is another top-tier option versus an Arizona Diamondbacks' team with a 24.5% K-rate and a 70.7% contact rate against right-handers.
In his third season with the Phillies, Wheeler has almost matched his career-best 2021 season, producing a 3.03 xFIP and a 28.3% strikeout percentage in 57.1 innings.
At his second highest salary point, the 32-year old stands as Saturday's top rated pitcher with a 43.5 fantasy projection and 7.86 expected strikeouts.
Charlie Morton ($7.500)
At his median salary point this season, Morton is an intriguing value possibility with a 22.0% K-rate against a weak Pittsburgh Pirates' team with a .252 wOBA and a 25.2% strikeout percentage.
While his 5.63 ERA and control issues are valid concerns, the veteran is trending towards some positive regression when observing his unsustainable .313 Batting Average on Balls in Play (career .305) and 4.54 xFIP.
Among Saturday's 20 pitchers, numberFire's models currently rank Morton first among his position with a 4.59 value rating and fourth overall with 6.3 projected Ks.
Stacks
Despite recent inconsistent offensive performances, the Yankees are an important decision point on Saturday afternoon versus Chicago's journeyman Matthew Swarmer.
While Swarmer's MLB resume is currently limited to 12.0 total innings, the 28-year old has overall profiled as an average starter on the Triple-A level, accounting for a 4.08 xFIP in 39.0 minor league innings this season and a 4.53 expected mark in 89.2 innings on the same level in 2021.
With some of his weaknesses on the Major League level are still unknown, New York stacks can start with Yankees' hitters in ideal batted form including a red-hot Aaron Judge (26.5% barrel rate, .469 expected wOBA), Giancarlo Stanton (24.1% barrel rate, .420 expected wOBA), DJ LeMahieu (.292 expected average), and Gleyber Torres (10.7% barrel percentage, .378 expected wOBA).
In a matchup against Beau Brieske, the Blue Jays are in another appetizing offensive opportunity against a low-strikeout (16.3% career K-rate) right-hander with a concerning 4.93 xFIP and glaring reverse splits (5.06 xFIP).
Toronto correlations can revolve around their most popular right-handed bats including Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (11.2% barrel rate, .392 expected wOBA), Bo Bichette (10.3% barrel percentage, .363 expected wOBA), and George Springer (9.2% barrel rate, .268 expected average) while Teoscar Hernandez (13.2% barrel rate), Lourdes Gurriel (.339 wOBA, 46.6% hard hit rate), and Santiago Espinal (,301 expected average) are secondary possibilities.
Zach Thompson will make his 25th career start against an Atlanta lineup projected for an appealing 5.7 runs.
While the 27-year old does a decent job managing hard contact (29.6% career rate) and keeping the ball on the ground (career 44.1%), Pittsburgh's right-hander often struggles versus hitters from the opposite side (4.87 xFIP) and his overall command (8.7%).
To best counter Thompson's weaknesses, fly-ball hitters from the left side should build the core of Atlanta's stacks, starting with Matt Olson (38.9% fly-ball percentage, 10.4% barrel rate) and Ozzie Albies (45.9% fly-ball percentage) while Ronald Acuna (40.6% fly-ball percentage, 17.7% barrel rate), Marcell Ozuna (45.0% fly-ball percentage, 13% barrel rate), and Dansby Swanson (10.9% barrel rate) still profile well enough for potential stacking.
Braxton Garrett will take the hill on the road in a difficult spot against an intimidating Astros' lineup with a 0.331 wOBA.
In his third opportunity to start in the Majors, the 24-year old has struggled overall with a 4.64 career xFIP and a 12.3% walk rate in 45.0 total innings.
With obvious trouble against righty bats (4.98 expected FIP), Jose Altuve (.360 expected wOBA), Jeremy Pena (10.2% barrel rate, .356 expected wOBA), and Alex Bregman (.355 expected wOBA) are exciting infield options while Martin Maldonado (10% barrel percentage) and Mauricio Dubon can be used as value.