MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 6/23/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves
Giants Moneyline (+140): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
We're four for five over the last two days. Let's keep it going.
Our model is into the San Francisco Giants, who are road 'dogs this afternoon in their series finale at the Atlanta Braves.
Alex Wood is pitching for San Fran, and he's been good, especially of late. For the campaign, Wood owns a 3.53 SIERA and 22.8% strikeout rate. Over his past five starts, he's pitched to a 2.93 FIP, 22.1% strikeout rate, 11.0% swinging-strike rate, and 5.3% walk rate. While a matchup with the Braves is a tough spot, Wood can have some success today.
Kyle Wright gets the ball for Atlanta. Wright started out the season in red-hot form, posting a sparkling 2.28 xFIP and 37.0% strikeout rate over March and April (24 innings). He's still been good since, but he hasn't lived up to that hot start, following up March/April with a 3.87 xFIP in May. He'll have his work cut out for him against a lefty-heavy Giants lineup that should feature Mike Yastrzemski (.372 expected wOBA), Joc Pederson (.424), and Brandon Belt (.377).
Our numbers have Atlanta winning 51.5% of the time, meaning we give San Francisco a 48.5% chance to win. The Giants' +140 moneyline price implies win odds of just 41.7%. Taking the Giants to win is a two-star wager.
Houston Astros at New York Yankees
Astros Moneyline (+114): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
We should be in for a fantastic series this weekend as the Houston Astros travel to the Bronx to face the New York Yankees. It's two of the best squads in the game, and things get started tonight.
The Yankees are slim -134 favorites while Houston is priced as a +114 underdog. Our algorithm likes the Astros' chances better than oddsmakers do.
Framber Valdez is on the hill for Houston. What Valdez lacks in strikeout juice (20.5% strikeout rate), he makes up for with a staggering 67.5% ground-ball rate. He's always done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard, allowing only 0.75 taters per nine for his career. In 2022, Valdez has given up only 0.44 homers per nine. His ability to limit the long ball will be extremely valuable against Aaron Judge and company.
The Yanks are countering with Jameson Taillon. A similar low-strikeout pitcher to Valdez, Taillon has struck out just 20.3% of hitters this campaign. But unlike the Astros' left-hander, Taillon doesn't have an out-of-this-world batted-ball profile; it's simply a good one, highlighted by a 27.8% hard-hit rate. He does, however, sport a stellar 3.1% walk rate.
Taillon will have to rely on the batted-ball gods today as he's unlikely to generate many punchouts against a Houston offense that strikes out at the third-lowest clip (19.6%).
We see both offenses having a good amount of success and think this will be a tight one as we project the Yankees to win by a score of 4.48-4.46. We give Houston a 47.4% chance to win. Their +114 moneyline implies win odds of 46.7%. It's not much, but there is a sliver of value there. We have a Houston moneyline bet pegged as a one-star play.
