MLB Betting Guide: Monday 6/27/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians
Over 8.0 (-106): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Sonny Gray and Triston McKenzie square off in this one, and our model backs both offenses to do some damage.
McKenzie gives up a lot of juicy contact. He's permitting a 41.0% hard-hit rate and 54.5% fly-ball rate this season, which has led to a whopping 1.70 homers per nine. The dinger issue is nothing new for him as he allowed 1.58 per nine a year ago and has given up 1.62 per nine for his career. Facing a Minnesota Twins lineup that features the likes of Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Max Kepler, McKenzie is in trouble today.
Gray has mostly been solid in 2022. He is, however, due for negative regression in the strikeout department as his 26.9% strikeout rate is inflated compared to his 9.9% swinging-strike rate. He also hasn't gone more than 85 pitches in any of his last three starts, which should lead to plenty of a Minnesota bullpen that is just 20th in reliever xFIP (3.83).
We have Minnesota beating the Cleveland Guardians by a score of 4.59-4.25 -- which is a total of 8.84 runs. We give the over a 52.6% chance to win out and rate it as a two-star play.
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Moneyline (-180): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Toronto Blue Jays are sizable home favorites today against the Boston Red Sox, but we think they should be even bigger favorites.
The Jays have a huge advantage on the mound as they'll send Kevin Gausman to oppose Connor Seabold.
Seabold has just three career MLB innings under his belt, and until today, he had spent all of 2022 at Triple-A, where he compiled a meh 4.41 xFIP and surrendered a 45.1% fly-ball rate. Seabold has a tall task in front of him versus a Jays offense that is third in wOBA (.329).
Gausman faces a stiff test, as well, against a Red Sox offense that is fifth in wOBA (.324), but he should be up to the challenge. Gausman sports a 3.10 SIERA, 26.1% strikeout rate and 16.2% swinging-strike rate. The SIERA and swinging-strike rate are career-best numbers. He's seen Boston twice this year and has held them to one earned run over 14 innings while punching out 17.
Toronto's -180 moneyline implies win odds of 64.3%. We give them a 66.3% chance to win and project the final score to be 5.39-4.06 in the Jays' favor. There's some value in taking Toronto to win, a bet we rate as a one-star wager.
