In daily fantasy baseball, success starts with nailing the starting pitcher spot in your lineup.
When compared to hitters, pitching performance tends to be much more predictable and stable throughout the course of the season. You know what you're getting from a top-level ace when you roster him: probably a dominant effort with only one or two implosions per season. In contrast, even the game's best hitters have days at the plate where they go 0-for-4.
As a result, lineup construction should begin with the starting pitcher. Which pitchers should you consider on today's main slate?
High-Salary Play
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
vs. Oakland Athletics
FanDuel Salary: $10,400
There are really only two options tonight that qualify as high-salaried plays: Joe Musgrove ($11,000) of the San Diego Padres and Logan Gilbert of the Seattle Mariners.
However, Musgrove faces the unenviable task of going up against the Los Angeles Dodgers, which is still a formidable attack despite missing Mookie Betts. They rank inside the to five in nearly every statistical category.
That's a far cry from what Gilbert will face in the Oakland Athletics, who rank in the bottom three against righties in terms of team wOBA, ISO, and wRC+.
And Gilbert? He's been pretty damn good in his first full MLB season. He sports a 3.24 ERA over 88 2/3 innings pitched, including a 24.9% strikeout rate and only a 6.3% barrel rate.
We peg Gilbert as the best hurler on the slate, projecting him for 34.5 FanDuel points. Invest confidently in the young righty.
Value Play
Adrian Houser, Milwaukee Brewers
at Pittsburgh Pirates
FanDuel Salary: $8,400
If spending up isn't your jam, you could save a little bit of coin and consider Adrian Houser against the Buccos.
Over the past month, the Pittsburgh Pirates have followed is a similar trend to their season-long marks -- their offense stinks. In that time, they rank third-worst in team wOBA (.292), and things don't get a whole lot better for opposing pitchers than a 26.7% strikeout rate.
Adrian Houser hasn't exactly been Cy Young, but his 48.1% ground-ball rate has ensured that he will not be prone to the long ball or a blow-up inning. His 17.6% strikeout rate isn't an earth-shattering mark, but his 33.1% hard-hit rate showcases that he's been tough to square up.
We project Houser for the third-most FanDuel points tonight, and he seems to be a worthy investment at this salary.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.