MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Tuesday 7/12/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SDAustin
Gomber
11.05.8252.5%36.5%23.2%13.5%7.2%
COLMike
Clevinger
11.05.1841.6%26.5%15.3%8.0%3.9%
NYYGraham
Ashcraft
8.05.0138.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
SEAJosiah
Gray
9.54.7734.4%20.5%11.0%5.4%2.4%
MINJason
Alexander
9.04.7534.0%20.2%10.9%5.3%2.4%
TEXJames
Kaprielian
8.54.7534.0%20.2%10.9%5.3%2.4%
WSHChris
Flexen
9.54.7333.7%19.9%10.7%5.2%2.3%
ATLDavid
Peterson
8.54.7233.5%19.8%10.6%5.1%2.3%
KCBeau
Brieske
9.04.6532.3%18.9%9.9%4.8%2.1%
SFDallas
Keuchel
8.04.6432.1%18.7%9.9%4.7%2.1%
MIAChris
Stratton
8.54.6231.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
CHCJordan
Lyles
9.04.6131.6%18.3%9.6%4.6%2.0%
LADMatthew
Liberatore
8.54.5730.9%17.8%9.2%4.4%1.9%
HOUNoah
Syndergaard
8.54.4128.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
BALAdrian
Sampson
9.04.3927.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
CLEDavis
Martin
8.04.3627.3%15.1%7.6%3.4%1.4%
DETKris
Bubic
9.04.3527.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
MILJosh
Winder
9.04.2525.5%13.8%6.7%3.0%1.2%
LAALuis
Garcia
8.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
STLMitch
White
8.53.9320.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
PITDaniel
Castano
8.53.8819.6%9.9%4.4%1.8%0.7%
BOSCorey
Kluber
7.53.8419.0%9.5%4.2%1.7%0.6%
NYMSpencer
Strider
8.53.7818.1%8.9%3.9%1.6%0.6%
OAKGlenn
Otto
8.53.7517.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
TBChris
Sale
7.53.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
CHWShane
Bieber
8.03.6416.1%7.7%3.3%1.2%0.4%
ARILogan
Webb
8.03.3612.4%5.5%2.2%0.8%0.2%
CINGerrit
Cole
8.02.998.3%3.3%1.2%0.4%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Gerrit
Cole
CIN7.995.4%89.3%79.8%67.2%53.0%39.1%26.9%
Shane
Bieber
CHW7.794.6%87.8%77.5%64.2%49.7%35.9%24.1%
Dylan
Cease
CLE7.091.8%82.6%69.8%54.9%40.0%27.0%16.8%
Spencer
Strider
NYM6.488.1%76.5%61.6%45.8%31.3%19.7%11.4%
Logan
Webb
ARI5.883.1%68.9%52.3%36.3%23.0%13.4%7.1%
Luis
Garcia
LAA5.580.1%64.6%47.5%31.7%19.3%10.7%5.5%
Josiah
Gray
SEA5.377.1%60.6%43.1%27.8%16.3%8.7%4.3%
Jose
Berrios
PHI5.275.5%58.5%41.0%26.0%15.0%7.8%3.8%
Corey
Kluber
BOS5.174.3%57.0%39.5%24.7%14.0%7.2%3.4%
David
Peterson
ATL5.074.1%56.6%39.1%24.4%13.8%7.1%3.3%
Adrian
Sampson
BAL4.971.8%53.8%36.3%22.0%12.1%6.1%2.8%
Jordan
Lyles
CHC4.768.9%50.4%33.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
Konnor
Pilkington
CHW4.768.9%50.4%33.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
Chris
Flexen
WSH4.768.6%50.0%32.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
Mike
Clevinger
COL4.667.9%49.2%31.9%18.6%9.8%4.7%2.0%
Noah
Syndergaard
HOU4.463.7%44.5%27.7%15.4%7.7%3.5%1.4%
Mitch
White
STL4.362.5%43.1%26.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
Davis
Martin
CLE4.259.9%40.4%24.2%12.9%6.2%2.7%1.1%
Chris
Sale
TB4.159.0%39.5%23.4%12.4%5.9%2.5%1.0%
Glenn
Otto
OAK4.158.8%39.3%23.2%12.2%5.8%2.5%1.0%
Kris
Bubic
DET4.056.5%36.9%21.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
Jason
Alexander
MIN3.955.3%35.7%20.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
Matthew
Liberatore
LAD3.954.7%35.2%19.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
Josh
Winder
MIL3.954.1%34.6%19.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
Beau
Brieske
KC3.954.1%34.6%19.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
James
Kaprielian
TEX3.953.7%34.2%19.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
Graham
Ashcraft
NYY3.953.7%34.2%19.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
Austin
Gomber
SD3.853.1%33.6%18.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
Daniel
Castano
PIT3.649.1%29.9%16.0%7.6%3.2%1.2%0.4%
Dallas
Keuchel
SF3.342.0%23.7%11.7%5.1%2.0%0.7%0.2%
Andrew
Bellatti
TOR1.33.8%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Chris
Stratton
MIA1.12.5%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Platoon? HR
PF
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Juan
Soto
WSHYes104Chris
Flexen
26.1%+285
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo101Jose
Berrios
26.1%+285
Willy
Adames
MILNo98Josh
Winder
26.0%+285
Manny
Machado
SDYes108Austin
Gomber
24.1%+315
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo103Noah
Syndergaard
23.8%+320
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Graham
Ashcraft
23.8%+320
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Davis
Martin
23.7%+320
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo106Josiah
Gray
23.3%+330
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes109Graham
Ashcraft
23.1%+335
Darick
Hall
PHIYes94Jose
Berrios
22.2%+350
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Davis
Martin
22.2%+350
George
Springer
TORNo101Andrew
Bellatti
21.5%+365
Will
Smith
LADYes91Matthew
Liberatore
21.4%+365
Mike
Trout
LAANo103Luis
Garcia
21.3%+370
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes108Noah
Syndergaard
21.3%+370
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo106Josiah
Gray
21.2%+370
C.J.
Cron
COLNo108Mike
Clevinger
20.9%+380
Brad
Miller
TEXYes101James
Kaprielian
20.8%+380
Luke
Voit
SDYes108Austin
Gomber
20.8%+380
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes92Corey
Kluber
20.5%+390
Trea
Turner
LADYes91Matthew
Liberatore
20.4%+390
Austin
Riley
ATLYes97David
Peterson
20.3%+390
Corey
Seager
TEXYes101James
Kaprielian
20.3%+395
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes101James
Kaprielian
20.3%+395
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes94Jose
Berrios
20.3%+395
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Dylan
Cease
20.0%+400
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo101Andrew
Bellatti
19.9%+400
Mookie
Betts
LADYes91Matthew
Liberatore
19.9%+400
Isaac
Paredes
TBYes94Chris
Sale
19.9%+405
William
Contreras
ATLYes97David
Peterson
19.8%+405
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo103Graham
Ashcraft
19.7%+410
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Jordan
Lyles
19.7%+410
Tyler
Naquin
CINYes109Gerrit
Cole
19.7%+410
Taylor
Ward
LAANo103Luis
Garcia
18.5%+440
Byron
Buxton
MINNo98Jason
Alexander
18.4%+445
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes103Shane
Bieber
18.2%+450
Trent
Grisham
SDNo109Austin
Gomber
18.2%+450
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Beau
Brieske
18.0%+455
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo103Adrian
Sampson
17.9%+460
Austin
Hays
BALNo103Adrian
Sampson
17.3%+480
Keston
Hiura
MILNo98Josh
Winder
17.2%+480
Joey
Votto
CINYes109Gerrit
Cole
17.1%+485
Seth
Brown
OAKYes101Glenn
Otto
16.7%+500
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103Jordan
Lyles
16.7%+500
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Jordan
Lyles
16.7%+500
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes104Josiah
Gray
16.5%+505
Michael
Chavis
PITYes90Daniel
Castano
16.4%+510
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108Luis
Garcia
16.3%+515
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLYes97David
Peterson
16.1%+520
Trevor
Story
BOSNo94Corey
Kluber
16.1%+520
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes101James
Kaprielian
16.1%+520
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96Jordan
Lyles
16.1%+525
Trey
Mancini
BALNo103Adrian
Sampson
16.0%+525
Aledmys
Diaz
HOUNo103Noah
Syndergaard
16.0%+525
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Graham
Ashcraft
16.0%+525
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo103Noah
Syndergaard
16.0%+525
Luis
Urias
MILNo98Josh
Winder
16.0%+525
Justin
Turner
LADYes91Matthew
Liberatore
15.9%+530
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes99Josh
Winder
15.8%+530
Gavin
Sheets
CHWNo103Konnor
Pilkington
15.8%+530
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Andrew
Bellatti
15.8%+535
Dylan
Moore
SEANo106Josiah
Gray
15.7%+535
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes109Mike
Clevinger
15.7%+535
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo91Mitch
White
15.7%+540
Juan
Yepez
STLNo91Mitch
White
15.7%+540
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo95James
Kaprielian
15.6%+540
Carlos
Correa
MINNo98Jason
Alexander
15.4%+550
Ryan
Jeffers
MINNo98Jason
Alexander
15.4%+550
Ramon
Urias
BALNo103Adrian
Sampson
15.4%+550
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo108Mike
Clevinger
15.3%+555
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes99Jason
Alexander
15.2%+560
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo101Andrew
Bellatti
15.1%+560
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo106Chris
Flexen
15.1%+565
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Davis
Martin
15.0%+565
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo99Shane
Bieber
14.9%+570
Rougned
Odor
BALYes96Adrian
Sampson
14.8%+575
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLYes97David
Peterson
14.8%+575
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Graham
Ashcraft
14.7%+580
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes90Dallas
Keuchel
14.5%+590
Austin
Slater
SFYes90Dallas
Keuchel
14.5%+590
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo97Matthew
Liberatore
14.5%+590
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Andrew
Bellatti
14.5%+590
Josh
Bell
WSHYes104Chris
Flexen
14.4%+595
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes94Chris
Sale
14.4%+595
Dan
Vogelbach
PITNo92Daniel
Castano
14.4%+595
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo106Chris
Flexen
14.4%+595
Ty
France
SEANo106Josiah
Gray
14.4%+595
Jose
Abreu
CHWYes99Konnor
Pilkington
14.4%+595
Nolan
Jones
CLEYes103Davis
Martin
14.3%+600
Jesus
Sanchez
MIAYes92Chris
Stratton
14.3%+600
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes97Mitch
White
14.3%+600
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo94Corey
Kluber
14.3%+600
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Davis
Martin
14.2%+600
Anthony
Santander
BALYes96Adrian
Sampson
14.2%+605
Brandon
Drury
CINNo103Gerrit
Cole
14.0%+610
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo103Noah
Syndergaard
14.0%+610
Max
Muncy
LADNo97Matthew
Liberatore
14.0%+615
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes100Spencer
Strider
14.0%+615
Brian
Serven
COLNo108Mike
Clevinger
13.9%+620
Christian
Bethancourt
TBYes94Chris
Sale
13.7%+625
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes104Josiah
Gray
13.7%+630
A.J.
Pollock
CHWYes99Konnor
Pilkington
13.6%+635
David
Peralta
ARIYes87Logan
Webb
13.6%+635
Luis
Robert
CHWNo99Shane
Bieber
13.6%+635
Mike
Moustakas
CINYes109Gerrit
Cole
13.5%+640
Tommy
Pham
CINNo103Gerrit
Cole
13.3%+650
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes100Spencer
Strider
13.3%+655
Christian
Yelich
MILYes99Josh
Winder
13.2%+660
Christian
Walker
ARINo90Logan
Webb
13.1%+660
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes87Logan
Webb
13.0%+665
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes104Josiah
Gray
13.0%+670
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo99Shane
Bieber
12.9%+675
Jake
Cronenworth
SDNo109Austin
Gomber
12.9%+675
Eric
Haase
DETYes92Kris
Bubic
12.8%+680
Spencer
Torkelson
DETYes92Kris
Bubic
12.8%+680
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes96Adrian
Sampson
12.8%+680
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes96Adrian
Sampson
12.8%+680
Darin
Ruf
SFYes90Dallas
Keuchel
12.6%+695
Diego
Castillo
PITYes90Daniel
Castano
12.6%+695
Matt
Olson
ATLNo100David
Peterson
12.6%+695
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes92Corey
Kluber
12.4%+710
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo99Shane
Bieber
12.2%+720
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Dylan
Cease
12.1%+725
Javier
Baez
DETYes92Kris
Bubic
12.1%+725
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo98Josh
Winder
12.1%+725
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo91Mitch
White
12.0%+735
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo97Spencer
Strider
12.0%+735
Dansby
Swanson
ATLYes97David
Peterson
12.0%+735
Ronald
Acuna
ATLYes97David
Peterson
12.0%+735
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes101James
Kaprielian
11.9%+735
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes94Jose
Berrios
11.9%+740
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo103Graham
Ashcraft
11.9%+740
Max
Stassi
LAANo103Luis
Garcia
11.9%+740
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo103Noah
Syndergaard
11.9%+740
Tyler
Stephenson
CINNo103Gerrit
Cole
11.9%+740
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo103Jordan
Lyles
11.9%+740
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes100Spencer
Strider
11.8%+745
Omar
Narvaez
MILYes99Josh
Winder
11.7%+750
Luis
Robert
CHWYes99Konnor
Pilkington
11.4%+775
Gio
Urshela
MINNo98Jason
Alexander
11.4%+775
Garrett
Stubbs
PHIYes94Jose
Berrios
11.2%+790
Joey
Bart
SFYes90Dallas
Keuchel
11.2%+790
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo103Noah
Syndergaard
11.2%+795
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFNo87Dallas
Keuchel
11.2%+795
Ramon
Laureano
OAKNo95Glenn
Otto
11.1%+800
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes108Luis
Garcia
11.1%+805
Brandon
Marsh
LAAYes108Luis
Garcia
11.1%+805
Jake
Lamb
LADNo97Matthew
Liberatore
11.1%+805
Cody
Bellinger
LADNo97Matthew
Liberatore
11.1%+805
Max
Kepler
MINYes99Jason
Alexander
11.0%+810
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo94Corey
Kluber
11.0%+810
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Andrew
Bellatti
11.0%+810
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo101Andrew
Bellatti
11.0%+810
Michael
Taylor
KCNo92Beau
Brieske
10.8%+825
Emmanuel
Rivera
KCNo92Beau
Brieske
10.8%+825
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo99Shane
Bieber
10.8%+830
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes104Chris
Flexen
10.7%+835
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDYes108Austin
Gomber
10.7%+840
Didi
Gregorius
PHIYes94Jose
Berrios
10.5%+850
Thairo
Estrada
SFYes90Dallas
Keuchel
10.5%+850
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes87Logan
Webb
10.5%+855
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes109Mike
Clevinger
10.3%+865
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Davis
Martin
10.0%+895
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes87Logan
Webb
9.8%+920
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo95James
Kaprielian
9.7%+935
Jace
Peterson
MILYes99Josh
Winder
9.5%+955
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo101Jose
Berrios
9.5%+955
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYes108Luis
Garcia
9.4%+960
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes92Kris
Bubic
9.2%+985
Keibert
Ruiz
WSHYes104Chris
Flexen
9.1%+1000
Maikel
Franco
WSHNo106Chris
Flexen
9.1%+1000
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWYes99Konnor
Pilkington
9.1%+1005
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes103Shane
Bieber
9.0%+1010
Nolan
Jones
CLEYes103Dylan
Cease
9.0%+1010
Ryan
O'Hearn
KCYes92Beau
Brieske
8.9%+1025
Josh
Smith
TEXYes101James
Kaprielian
8.9%+1025
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo103Noah
Syndergaard
8.8%+1030
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo103Graham
Ashcraft
8.8%+1030
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo103Adrian
Sampson
8.8%+1030
C.J.
Abrams
SDNo109Austin
Gomber
8.8%+1035
Randy
Arozarena
TBYes94Chris
Sale
8.6%+1055
Jonathan
Villar
LAAYes108Luis
Garcia
8.6%+1065
Austin
Hedges
CLENo99Dylan
Cease
8.5%+1070
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Dylan
Cease
8.5%+1070
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Dylan
Cease
8.5%+1070
Jonathan
Schoop
DETYes92Kris
Bubic
8.5%+1080
Alfonso
Rivas
CHCYes96Jordan
Lyles
8.5%+1080
Jose
Miranda
MINNo98Jason
Alexander
8.5%+1085
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo108Mike
Clevinger
8.4%+1090
J.D.
Davis
NYMNo97Spencer
Strider
8.4%+1095
Jake
Marisnick
PITYes90Daniel
Castano
8.3%+1105
Kevin
Newman
PITYes90Daniel
Castano
8.3%+1105
Josh
Harrison
CHWYes99Konnor
Pilkington
8.2%+1115
Sam
Huff
TEXNo95James
Kaprielian
8.2%+1115
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Dylan
Cease
8.2%+1120
Franchy
Cordero
BOSYes92Corey
Kluber
8.1%+1125
Nicky
Lopez
KCYes92Beau
Brieske
8.1%+1125
Nomar
Mazara
SDNo109Austin
Gomber
8.1%+1140
Kolten
Wong
MILYes99Josh
Winder
7.9%+1165
Alex
Kirilloff
MINYes99Jason
Alexander
7.9%+1165
Alec
Bohm
PHINo101Jose
Berrios
7.9%+1165
Yandy
Diaz
TBYes94Chris
Sale
7.9%+1175
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo90Chris
Stratton
7.8%+1180
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo90Chris
Stratton
7.8%+1180
Aaron
Hicks
NYYYes109Graham
Ashcraft
7.8%+1190
Seby
Zavala
CHWNo99Shane
Bieber
7.7%+1190
Robbie
Grossman
DETYes92Kris
Bubic
7.7%+1200
Rafael
Ortega
CHCYes96Jordan
Lyles
7.7%+1200
Odubel
Herrera
PHIYes94Jose
Berrios
7.5%+1225
Cavan
Biggio
TORYes94Andrew
Bellatti
7.5%+1225
Ben
Gamel
PITNo92Daniel
Castano
7.5%+1225
Riley
Greene
DETNo92Kris
Bubic
7.5%+1225
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHYes104Chris
Flexen
7.4%+1245
Joey
Wendle
MIAYes92Chris
Stratton
7.4%+1250
Christian
Vazquez
BOSNo94Corey
Kluber
7.4%+1255
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo103Gerrit
Cole
7.2%+1285
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo101Andrew
Bellatti
7.1%+1310
Brendan
Donovan
STLYes97Mitch
White
7.0%+1335
Willi
Castro
DETYes92Kris
Bubic
6.9%+1350
Josh
VanMeter
PITNo92Daniel
Castano
6.9%+1350
Mark
Canha
NYMNo97Spencer
Strider
6.8%+1365
Ke'Bryan
Hayes
PITYes90Daniel
Castano
6.8%+1375
David
Villar
SFYes90Dallas
Keuchel
6.8%+1375
Elvis
Andrus
OAKNo95Glenn
Otto
6.7%+1395
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo95Glenn
Otto
6.7%+1395
Garrett
Hampson
COLNo108Mike
Clevinger
6.7%+1400

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