Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | Paolo Espino | 8.5 | 5.26 | 43.0% | 27.7% | 16.2% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
| CIN | Trevor Rogers | 9.5 | 4.95 | 37.5% | 23.1% | 12.8% | 6.5% | 3.0% |
| MIL | Kyle Freeland | 8.5 | 4.84 | 35.6% | 21.5% | 11.7% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| CLE | Nick Pivetta | 9.5 | 4.79 | 34.7% | 20.8% | 11.2% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| HOU | Adam Oller | 8.0 | 4.72 | 33.5% | 19.8% | 10.6% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| ATL | Ranger Suarez | 8.5 | 4.71 | 33.3% | 19.7% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| BOS | Zach Plesac | 9.5 | 4.71 | 33.3% | 19.7% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| TB | Austin Voth | 9.0 | 4.71 | 33.3% | 19.7% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| SF | Tyler Gilbert | 9.0 | 4.69 | 33.0% | 19.4% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| SEA | Glenn Otto | 8.5 | 4.65 | 32.3% | 18.9% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| CHC | JT Brubaker | 8.5 | 4.57 | 30.9% | 17.8% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| MIA | Nick Lodolo | 9.5 | 4.55 | 30.6% | 17.5% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| SD | Drew Hutchison | 8.0 | 4.39 | 27.8% | 15.5% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| KC | Noah Syndergaard | 8.5 | 4.33 | 26.8% | 14.8% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| ARI | Jakob Junis | 9.0 | 4.31 | 26.5% | 14.5% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| BAL | Corey Kluber | 9.0 | 4.29 | 26.2% | 14.3% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| LAA | Zack Greinke | 8.5 | 4.17 | 24.2% | 12.9% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| PIT | Adrian Sampson | 8.5 | 3.93 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| TEX | Chris Flexen | 8.5 | 3.85 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| PHI | Max Fried | 8.5 | 3.79 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| COL | Aaron Ashby | 8.5 | 3.66 | 16.4% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| DET | Sean Manaea | 8.0 | 3.61 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| OAK | Jake Odorizzi | 8.0 | 3.28 | 11.5% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| WSH | Tony Gonsolin | 8.5 | 3.24 | 11.0% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | PHI | 6.5 | 88.5% | 77.1% | 62.4% | 46.6% | 32.0% | 20.3% | 11.8% |
| Nick Pivetta | CLE | 6.1 | 85.3% | 72.2% | 56.2% | 40.2% | 26.3% | 15.8% | 8.7% |
| Sean Manaea | DET | 6.0 | 85.1% | 71.9% | 55.9% | 39.9% | 26.0% | 15.6% | 8.6% |
| JT Brubaker | CHC | 5.8 | 82.9% | 68.6% | 52.0% | 36.0% | 22.8% | 13.2% | 7.0% |
| Aaron Ashby | COL | 5.5 | 79.8% | 64.2% | 47.1% | 31.4% | 19.1% | 10.6% | 5.4% |
| Tony Gonsolin | WSH | 5.4 | 78.7% | 62.7% | 45.4% | 29.8% | 17.8% | 9.7% | 4.9% |
| Nick Lodolo | MIA | 5.2 | 76.7% | 60.1% | 42.6% | 27.4% | 16.0% | 8.5% | 4.1% |
| Corey Kluber | BAL | 4.9 | 72.1% | 54.2% | 36.6% | 22.3% | 12.3% | 6.2% | 2.8% |
| Ranger Suarez | ATL | 4.8 | 71.0% | 52.9% | 35.4% | 21.3% | 11.6% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| Chris Flexen | TEX | 4.7 | 69.5% | 51.1% | 33.7% | 19.9% | 10.7% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| Adrian Sampson | PIT | 4.5 | 65.3% | 46.2% | 29.2% | 16.5% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Trevor Rogers | CIN | 4.4 | 64.6% | 45.5% | 28.5% | 16.0% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| Zach Plesac | BOS | 4.3 | 63.0% | 43.7% | 27.0% | 14.9% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Jake Odorizzi | OAK | 4.3 | 62.6% | 43.3% | 26.7% | 14.7% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Noah Syndergaard | KC | 4.1 | 58.2% | 38.7% | 22.7% | 11.9% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Kyle Freeland | MIL | 4.1 | 58.0% | 38.5% | 22.6% | 11.8% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Glenn Otto | SEA | 3.8 | 53.3% | 33.8% | 18.9% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Austin Voth | TB | 3.8 | 52.0% | 32.6% | 18.0% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Gilbert | SF | 3.5 | 46.1% | 27.3% | 14.1% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Paolo Espino | LAD | 3.5 | 45.5% | 26.7% | 13.7% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Drew Hutchison | SD | 3.4 | 45.0% | 26.3% | 13.5% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Adam Oller | HOU | 3.2 | 39.7% | 21.9% | 10.5% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Zack Greinke | LAA | 3.1 | 37.1% | 19.8% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jakob Junis | ARI | 3.1 | 36.8% | 19.7% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? | HR PF | Opp SP | HR Prob% | xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Yes | 92 | Adam Oller | 27.2% | +270 |
| Hunter Renfroe | MIL | Yes | 103 | Kyle Freeland | 27.1% | +270 |
| Willy Adames | MIL | Yes | 103 | Kyle Freeland | 26.2% | +280 |
| Mookie Betts | LAD | No | 107 | Paolo Espino | 23.9% | +320 |
| Jared Walsh | LAA | Yes | 92 | Zack Greinke | 23.7% | +320 |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | Yes | 92 | Zack Greinke | 23.3% | +330 |
| Austin Riley | ATL | Yes | 110 | Ranger Suarez | 22.8% | +340 |
| Marcell Ozuna | ATL | Yes | 110 | Ranger Suarez | 22.8% | +340 |
| Jeremy Pena | HOU | No | 94 | Adam Oller | 22.3% | +345 |
| Anthony Santander | BAL | Yes | 110 | Corey Kluber | 22.1% | +350 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | No | 112 | Corey Kluber | 21.5% | +365 |
| Adolis Garcia | TEX | No | 99 | Chris Flexen | 21.2% | +370 |
| Joey Votto | CIN | No | 113 | Trevor Rogers | 20.8% | +380 |
| Javier Baez | DET | Yes | 99 | Sean Manaea | 20.6% | +385 |
| Trea Turner | LAD | No | 107 | Paolo Espino | 20.2% | +395 |
| Isaac Paredes | TB | No | 112 | Austin Voth | 19.7% | +405 |
| Wilmer Flores | SF | Yes | 93 | Tyler Gilbert | 19.7% | +410 |
| Eugenio Suarez | SEA | No | 99 | Glenn Otto | 19.6% | +410 |
| C.J. Cron | COL | Yes | 103 | Aaron Ashby | 19.5% | +415 |
| Kris Bryant | COL | Yes | 103 | Aaron Ashby | 19.5% | +415 |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | Yes | 92 | Adam Oller | 19.4% | +415 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | Yes | 102 | Paolo Espino | 19.3% | +420 |
| Tommy Pham | CIN | Yes | 111 | Trevor Rogers | 19.3% | +420 |
| Ronald Acuna | ATL | Yes | 110 | Ranger Suarez | 19.2% | +420 |
| Rhys Hoskins | PHI | Yes | 110 | Max Fried | 19.2% | +420 |
| Darin Ruf | SF | Yes | 93 | Tyler Gilbert | 19.1% | +420 |
| Kole Calhoun | TEX | Yes | 96 | Chris Flexen | 19.0% | +425 |
| Juan Soto | WSH | Yes | 102 | Tony Gonsolin | 18.7% | +435 |
| Austin Slater | SF | Yes | 93 | Tyler Gilbert | 18.6% | +440 |
| William Contreras | ATL | Yes | 110 | Ranger Suarez | 18.5% | +440 |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | Yes | 96 | Glenn Otto | 18.4% | +445 |
| Alex Bregman | HOU | No | 94 | Adam Oller | 18.3% | +445 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | Yes | 93 | Nick Pivetta | 18.0% | +455 |
| Brandon Drury | CIN | Yes | 111 | Trevor Rogers | 17.9% | +460 |
| Willson Contreras | CHC | No | 103 | JT Brubaker | 17.9% | +460 |
| Patrick Wisdom | CHC | No | 103 | JT Brubaker | 17.9% | +460 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | No | 106 | Max Fried | 17.8% | +460 |
| Randy Arozarena | TB | No | 112 | Austin Voth | 17.8% | +460 |
| Martin Maldonado | HOU | No | 94 | Adam Oller | 17.2% | +480 |
| Garrett Cooper | MIA | Yes | 111 | Nick Lodolo | 17.2% | +480 |
| Nelson Cruz | WSH | No | 107 | Tony Gonsolin | 17.2% | +480 |
| Trey Mancini | BAL | No | 112 | Corey Kluber | 17.1% | +485 |
| Guillermo Heredia | ATL | Yes | 110 | Ranger Suarez | 17.1% | +485 |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | Yes | 102 | Paolo Espino | 16.9% | +495 |
| Will Smith | LAD | No | 107 | Paolo Espino | 16.5% | +505 |
| Ketel Marte | ARI | Yes | 99 | Jakob Junis | 16.5% | +505 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | No | 92 | Noah Syndergaard | 16.4% | +510 |
| Luke Voit | SD | No | 99 | Drew Hutchison | 16.2% | +520 |
| Chas McCormick | HOU | No | 94 | Adam Oller | 16.1% | +520 |
| Jonah Heim | TEX | Yes | 96 | Chris Flexen | 16.1% | +525 |
| Brandon Lowe | TB | Yes | 110 | Austin Voth | 15.8% | +530 |
| Francisco Mejia | TB | Yes | 110 | Austin Voth | 15.8% | +530 |
| Jesus Aguilar | MIA | Yes | 111 | Nick Lodolo | 15.8% | +535 |
| Austin Hays | BAL | No | 112 | Corey Kluber | 15.8% | +535 |
| Dansby Swanson | ATL | Yes | 110 | Ranger Suarez | 15.6% | +540 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | No | 106 | Ranger Suarez | 15.6% | +540 |
| Michael Brosseau | MIL | Yes | 103 | Kyle Freeland | 15.5% | +545 |
| Marcus Semien | TEX | No | 99 | Chris Flexen | 15.5% | +545 |
| Daulton Varsho | ARI | Yes | 99 | Jakob Junis | 15.2% | +560 |
| Josh Naylor | CLE | Yes | 93 | Nick Pivetta | 15.0% | +565 |
| Franmil Reyes | CLE | No | 99 | Nick Pivetta | 14.9% | +570 |
| Jorge Alfaro | SD | No | 99 | Drew Hutchison | 14.9% | +570 |
| Randal Grichuk | COL | Yes | 103 | Aaron Ashby | 14.8% | +575 |
| Brandon Belt | SF | No | 99 | Tyler Gilbert | 14.8% | +575 |
| Christian Walker | ARI | No | 93 | Jakob Junis | 14.8% | +580 |
| Ramon Urias | BAL | No | 112 | Corey Kluber | 14.3% | +600 |
| Seth Brown | OAK | Yes | 92 | Jake Odorizzi | 14.3% | +600 |
| Christopher Morel | CHC | No | 103 | JT Brubaker | 14.0% | +610 |
| David Peralta | ARI | Yes | 99 | Jakob Junis | 13.8% | +620 |
| Maikel Franco | WSH | No | 107 | Tony Gonsolin | 13.8% | +625 |
| Eric Haase | DET | Yes | 99 | Sean Manaea | 13.6% | +635 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | No | 94 | Adam Oller | 13.6% | +635 |
| Brett Phillips | TB | Yes | 110 | Austin Voth | 13.6% | +635 |
| Josh Lowe | TB | Yes | 110 | Austin Voth | 13.6% | +635 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | Yes | 96 | Adrian Sampson | 13.5% | +640 |
| Leody Taveras | TEX | Yes | 96 | Chris Flexen | 13.5% | +640 |
| Cody Bellinger | LAD | Yes | 102 | Paolo Espino | 13.5% | +640 |
| Luke Williams | MIA | Yes | 111 | Nick Lodolo | 13.4% | +645 |
| Emmanuel Rivera | KC | No | 92 | Noah Syndergaard | 13.4% | +645 |
| Luis Urias | MIL | Yes | 103 | Kyle Freeland | 13.4% | +650 |
| Charlie Blackmon | COL | No | 101 | Aaron Ashby | 13.3% | +655 |
| Alek Thomas | ARI | Yes | 99 | Jakob Junis | 13.2% | +660 |
| Joey Bart | SF | Yes | 93 | Tyler Gilbert | 12.9% | +675 |
| Manny Machado | SD | No | 99 | Drew Hutchison | 12.9% | +675 |
| Ezequiel Duran | TEX | No | 99 | Chris Flexen | 12.9% | +675 |
| Ben Gamel | PIT | Yes | 96 | Adrian Sampson | 12.8% | +680 |
| Carlos Santana | SEA | Yes | 96 | Glenn Otto | 12.8% | +680 |
| Jorge Mateo | BAL | No | 112 | Corey Kluber | 12.8% | +680 |
| Josh Bell | WSH | Yes | 102 | Tony Gonsolin | 12.8% | +685 |
| Taylor Ward | LAA | No | 92 | Zack Greinke | 12.8% | +685 |
| Max Stassi | LAA | No | 92 | Zack Greinke | 12.8% | +685 |
| Darick Hall | PHI | No | 106 | Max Fried | 12.6% | +695 |
| Jurickson Profar | SD | Yes | 94 | Drew Hutchison | 12.6% | +695 |
| Thairo Estrada | SF | Yes | 93 | Tyler Gilbert | 12.2% | +715 |
| Julio Rodriguez | SEA | No | 99 | Glenn Otto | 12.2% | +720 |
| Ji-Man Choi | TB | Yes | 110 | Austin Voth | 12.1% | +730 |
| Nico Hoerner | CHC | No | 103 | JT Brubaker | 11.9% | +740 |
| Sean Murphy | OAK | No | 94 | Jake Odorizzi | 11.7% | +755 |
| Ramon Laureano | OAK | No | 94 | Jake Odorizzi | 11.7% | +755 |
| Bobby Dalbec | BOS | No | 99 | Zach Plesac | 11.5% | +770 |
| Christian Vazquez | BOS | No | 99 | Zach Plesac | 11.5% | +770 |
| Jeimer Candelario | DET | Yes | 99 | Sean Manaea | 11.4% | +775 |
| Jake Lamb | LAD | Yes | 102 | Paolo Espino | 11.3% | +785 |
| Jesus Sanchez | MIA | No | 113 | Nick Lodolo | 11.3% | +790 |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | Yes | 110 | Corey Kluber | 11.2% | +790 |
| Nolan Jones | CLE | Yes | 93 | Nick Pivetta | 11.1% | +800 |
| Elias Diaz | COL | Yes | 103 | Aaron Ashby | 11.0% | +805 |
| MJ Melendez | KC | Yes | 92 | Noah Syndergaard | 11.0% | +810 |
| Josh Rojas | ARI | Yes | 99 | Jakob Junis | 11.0% | +810 |
| Mauricio Dubon | HOU | No | 94 | Adam Oller | 11.0% | +810 |
| Ty France | SEA | No | 99 | Glenn Otto | 10.8% | +830 |
| Trayce Thompson | LAD | No | 107 | Paolo Espino | 10.8% | +830 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | Yes | 96 | Chris Flexen | 10.7% | +835 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | No | 106 | Ranger Suarez | 10.6% | +840 |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | Yes | 94 | Drew Hutchison | 10.5% | +850 |
| Andrew Velazquez | LAA | Yes | 92 | Zack Greinke | 10.3% | +870 |
| Andrew McCutchen | MIL | Yes | 103 | Kyle Freeland | 10.2% | +880 |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | Yes | 103 | Aaron Ashby | 10.2% | +880 |
| Luis Gonzalez | SF | Yes | 93 | Tyler Gilbert | 10.1% | +890 |
| Xander Bogaerts | BOS | No | 99 | Zach Plesac | 10.0% | +895 |
| Miguel Rojas | MIA | Yes | 111 | Nick Lodolo | 10.0% | +895 |
| Jesse Winker | SEA | Yes | 96 | Glenn Otto | 10.0% | +900 |
| Orlando Arcia | ATL | Yes | 110 | Ranger Suarez | 10.0% | +905 |
| Joey Wendle | MIA | No | 113 | Nick Lodolo | 9.8% | +920 |
| Seiya Suzuki | CHC | No | 103 | JT Brubaker | 9.6% | +940 |
| Ryan McMahon | COL | No | 101 | Aaron Ashby | 9.5% | +950 |
| Hunter Dozier | KC | No | 92 | Noah Syndergaard | 9.4% | +965 |
| Jonathan India | CIN | Yes | 111 | Trevor Rogers | 9.1% | +995 |
| Andres Gimenez | CLE | Yes | 93 | Nick Pivetta | 9.0% | +1015 |
| Luis Rengifo | LAA | Yes | 92 | Zack Greinke | 8.9% | +1025 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | HOU | No | 94 | Adam Oller | 8.9% | +1025 |
| Stephen Piscotty | OAK | No | 94 | Jake Odorizzi | 8.9% | +1025 |
| Whit Merrifield | KC | No | 92 | Noah Syndergaard | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Kyle Lewis | SEA | No | 99 | Glenn Otto | 8.5% | +1070 |
| Myles Straw | CLE | No | 99 | Nick Pivetta | 8.5% | +1070 |
| Harold Castro | DET | No | 94 | Sean Manaea | 8.3% | +1100 |
| Eric Hosmer | SD | Yes | 94 | Drew Hutchison | 8.3% | +1105 |
| Franchy Cordero | BOS | Yes | 93 | Zach Plesac | 8.2% | +1115 |
| Mark Kolozsvary | CIN | Yes | 111 | Trevor Rogers | 8.2% | +1120 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | Yes | 110 | Max Fried | 8.1% | +1130 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | PIT | No | 103 | Adrian Sampson | 8.0% | +1145 |
| Jake Marisnick | PIT | No | 103 | Adrian Sampson | 8.0% | +1145 |
| Michael Taylor | KC | No | 92 | Noah Syndergaard | 8.0% | +1155 |
| Sergio Alcantara | ARI | Yes | 99 | Jakob Junis | 7.9% | +1165 |
| Robinson Chirinos | BAL | No | 112 | Corey Kluber | 7.8% | +1185 |
| Yandy Diaz | TB | No | 112 | Austin Voth | 7.8% | +1185 |
| Amed Rosario | CLE | No | 99 | Nick Pivetta | 7.7% | +1190 |
| Ian Happ | CHC | Yes | 96 | JT Brubaker | 7.7% | +1200 |
| Alex Verdugo | BOS | Yes | 93 | Zach Plesac | 7.5% | +1240 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | Yes | 92 | Noah Syndergaard | 7.4% | +1250 |
| Jonathan Schoop | DET | Yes | 99 | Sean Manaea | 7.4% | +1255 |
| Donovan Solano | CIN | Yes | 111 | Trevor Rogers | 7.3% | +1275 |
| Jason Delay | PIT | No | 103 | Adrian Sampson | 7.2% | +1285 |
| Nick Castellanos | PHI | Yes | 110 | Max Fried | 7.2% | +1290 |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | No | 106 | Max Fried | 7.1% | +1300 |
| Yermin Mercedes | SF | Yes | 93 | Tyler Gilbert | 7.0% | +1335 |
| Yoshitomo Tsutsugo | PIT | Yes | 96 | Adrian Sampson | 6.9% | +1350 |
| Connor Joe | COL | Yes | 103 | Aaron Ashby | 6.8% | +1375 |
| Yolmer Sanchez | BOS | Yes | 93 | Zach Plesac | 6.7% | +1390 |
| Nicky Lopez | KC | Yes | 92 | Noah Syndergaard | 6.6% | +1405 |
| Carson Kelly | ARI | No | 93 | Jakob Junis | 6.6% | +1425 |
| Gavin Lux | LAD | Yes | 102 | Paolo Espino | 6.5% | +1450 |
| Yadiel Hernandez | WSH | Yes | 102 | Tony Gonsolin | 6.5% | +1450 |
| Avisail Garcia | MIA | Yes | 111 | Nick Lodolo | 6.3% | +1490 |
| Jacob Stallings | MIA | Yes | 111 | Nick Lodolo | 6.3% | +1490 |