fWAR, just a year removed from a 4.4 fWAR season.
Kipnis was immensely valuable in 2013, which earned him his hefty contract, as well as a lofty draft-day price in fantasy baseball leagues. Both the Indians and fantasy owners have to feel burned by his huge drop-off in 2014, and it is worth examining what to expect from him moving forward. Was Kipnis' big season a fluke, or will he turn back the clock to his 2013 form? Let’s take a look.
By the Numbers
It was as if Kipnis was a completely different player from one year to the next.
Production | Average | OBP | Slugging | wRC+ | fWAR | nERD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013 | 0.284 | 0.366 | 0.452 | 129 | 4.4 | 1.98 |
2014 | 0.240 | 0.310 | 0.330 | 86 | 1.0 | 0.41 |
The difference in wRC+ is especially staggering, as he went from being 29% better than average offensively in 2013 to 14% below average last season. The drop in Dan Szymborski’s projection system, has Kipnis pegged for a .256/.330/.388 slash line in 2015. It certainly would not match the level of performance we saw from him in 2013, but given his strong base stealing numbers and slight power, it is a slash line fantasy owners could easily live with.
Last year was a disaster for Kipnis, and there is little to suggest he can repeat his All-Star season.
However, his speed is for real, and he has more power than he displayed last year. While he will likely never crush lefties the way he did in 2013, his complete incompetence against them from 2014 likely will not reoccur either. If you want to nab Kipnis is fantasy drafts, do not pay the pre-2014 price but rather a middle-round option tag that carries some risk.