MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Wednesday 8/10/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
STLKyle
Freeland
11.56.3160.3%44.3%30.0%18.6%10.7%
NYMT.J.
Zeuch
8.55.3043.7%28.3%16.7%8.9%4.4%
COLJose
Quintana
11.55.1941.7%26.6%15.4%8.1%3.9%
ATLNick
Pivetta
9.55.0539.3%24.5%13.9%7.1%3.4%
TORDean
Kremer
9.04.8936.5%22.2%12.2%6.1%2.8%
CHWKris
Bubic
9.04.7934.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
CHCJosiah
Gray
8.54.6933.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
HOUGlenn
Otto
7.54.6933.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
SDJakob
Junis
8.54.6933.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
BOSKyle
Wright
9.54.4528.9%16.3%8.3%3.8%1.6%
CLEDrew
Hutchison
8.04.4028.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
ARIMitch
Keller
8.04.3927.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
KCJohnny
Cueto
9.04.2124.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
MILJeffrey
Springs
7.54.1323.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
BALJose
Berrios
9.04.1123.2%12.2%5.8%2.5%1.0%
NYYRobbie
Ray
7.53.9721.0%10.8%4.9%2.0%0.8%
SFSean
Manaea
8.53.8118.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
WSHJustin
Steele
8.53.8118.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
PHISandy
Alcantara
7.03.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
PITMadison
Bumgarner
8.03.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
DETAaron
Civale
8.03.6015.6%7.3%3.1%1.2%0.4%
SEANestor
Cortes
7.53.5314.6%6.8%2.8%1.0%0.4%
TBBrandon
Woodruff
7.53.3712.6%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
MIANoah
Syndergaard
7.03.3412.2%5.4%2.1%0.7%0.2%
CINTaijuan
Walker
8.53.2010.5%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%
TEXJustin
Verlander
7.52.816.6%2.5%0.8%0.2%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Brandon
Woodruff
TB6.789.9%79.5%65.5%50.0%35.2%22.9%13.8%
Justin
Verlander
TEX6.689.4%78.5%64.2%48.6%33.9%21.8%13.0%
Robbie
Ray
NYY6.589.0%78.0%63.5%47.8%33.2%21.2%12.5%
Sandy
Alcantara
PHI6.387.0%74.7%59.4%43.4%29.1%18.0%10.2%
Kyle
Wright
BOS6.085.2%72.0%56.1%40.0%26.2%15.7%8.7%
Nestor
Cortes
SEA5.882.6%68.2%51.5%35.5%22.4%12.9%6.8%
Sean
Manaea
SF5.782.0%67.3%50.5%34.6%21.6%12.3%6.5%
Jose
Berrios
BAL5.781.5%66.5%49.7%33.8%20.9%11.9%6.2%
Nick
Pivetta
ATL5.579.4%63.6%46.4%30.8%18.6%10.2%5.2%
Jeffrey
Springs
MIL5.276.1%59.2%41.7%26.6%15.4%8.1%3.9%
Justin
Steele
WSH5.275.9%59.1%41.6%26.5%15.3%8.0%3.9%
Madison
Bumgarner
PIT5.175.1%58.0%40.5%25.6%14.6%7.6%3.6%
Josiah
Gray
CHC5.174.7%57.5%40.0%25.1%14.3%7.4%3.5%
Taijuan
Walker
CIN4.871.2%53.1%35.6%21.5%11.7%5.8%2.6%
Noah
Syndergaard
MIA4.871.0%52.9%35.4%21.3%11.6%5.8%2.6%
Touki
Toussaint
OAK4.565.9%47.0%29.9%17.0%8.7%4.1%1.7%
Glenn
Otto
HOU4.463.7%44.5%27.7%15.4%7.7%3.5%1.4%
Paul
Blackburn
LAA4.463.2%43.9%27.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
Johnny
Cueto
KC4.363.0%43.7%27.0%14.9%7.4%3.3%1.4%
Ryan
Pepiot
MIN4.362.3%43.0%26.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
Sonny
Gray
LAD4.362.1%42.8%26.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
Jose
Quintana
COL4.261.0%41.6%25.2%13.6%6.6%2.9%1.2%
Kris
Bubic
CHW4.260.6%41.2%24.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
Kyle
Freeland
STL4.159.3%39.8%23.7%12.6%6.0%2.6%1.0%
Jakob
Junis
SD4.056.3%36.7%21.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
Mitch
Keller
ARI3.954.3%34.8%19.6%9.9%4.4%1.8%0.7%
Dean
Kremer
TOR3.750.6%31.3%17.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
Drew
Hutchison
CLE3.648.9%29.7%15.9%7.5%3.2%1.2%0.4%
Aaron
Civale
DET3.443.7%25.2%12.7%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
T.J.
Zeuch
NYM2.831.5%15.7%6.8%2.6%0.9%0.3%0.1%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Nolan
Arenado
STLYes108Kyle
Freeland
26.1%+285
Austin
Riley
ATLNo99Nick
Pivetta
25.8%+290
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Jose
Berrios
25.7%+290
Aaron
Judge
NYYYes99Robbie
Ray
25.1%+300
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo98T.J.
Zeuch
24.8%+305
Byron
Buxton
MINNo107Ryan
Pepiot
24.4%+310
Matt
Olson
ATLYes93Nick
Pivetta
24.3%+310
Danny
Jansen
TORNo112Dean
Kremer
24.2%+315
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Glenn
Otto
24.0%+315
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLYes108Kyle
Freeland
23.6%+325
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Josiah
Gray
23.3%+330
Rougned
Odor
BALYes110Jose
Berrios
22.7%+340
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo112Dean
Kremer
22.6%+340
Trea
Turner
LADNo107Sonny
Gray
22.4%+345
Eugenio
Suarez
SEAYes99Nestor
Cortes
22.2%+350
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes92Paul
Blackburn
21.4%+365
Luke
Voit
WSHYes103Justin
Steele
21.2%+370
Mookie
Betts
LADNo107Sonny
Gray
20.8%+380
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYNo96Robbie
Ray
20.7%+385
Matt
Chapman
TORNo112Dean
Kremer
20.3%+390
Carlos
Correa
MINNo107Ryan
Pepiot
20.2%+395
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Sandy
Alcantara
20.1%+400
Seth
Brown
OAKYes92Touki
Toussaint
20.0%+400
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Glenn
Otto
19.9%+400
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103Josiah
Gray
19.7%+410
Will
Smith
LADNo107Sonny
Gray
19.6%+410
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes99Nestor
Cortes
19.5%+415
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes92Paul
Blackburn
19.4%+415
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes99Mitch
Keller
19.4%+415
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes94Drew
Hutchison
19.2%+420
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo99Nick
Pivetta
19.1%+425
Jose
Abreu
CHWYes92Kris
Bubic
19.0%+425
Taylor
Ward
LAANo94Paul
Blackburn
18.9%+430
Willy
Adames
MILYes103Jeffrey
Springs
18.9%+430
Keston
Hiura
MILYes103Jeffrey
Springs
18.9%+430
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Glenn
Otto
18.8%+430
Christian
Walker
ARINo93Mitch
Keller
18.7%+435
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes102Ryan
Pepiot
18.7%+435
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo103Josiah
Gray
18.5%+440
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo112Dean
Kremer
18.5%+440
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo112Jose
Berrios
18.5%+440
Evan
Longoria
SFYes96Sean
Manaea
18.5%+440
Josh
Donaldson
NYYYes99Robbie
Ray
18.3%+445
Hunter
Renfroe
MILYes103Jeffrey
Springs
18.2%+450
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Kyle
Wright
18.0%+455
Bo
Bichette
TORNo112Dean
Kremer
17.8%+460
Ramon
Urias
BALNo112Jose
Berrios
17.8%+460
Gleyber
Torres
NYYYes99Robbie
Ray
17.7%+465
Darick
Hall
PHIYes106Sandy
Alcantara
17.4%+475
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes101Brandon
Woodruff
17.4%+475
Brandon
Lowe
TBYes101Brandon
Woodruff
17.4%+475
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo103Brandon
Woodruff
17.3%+480
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Josiah
Gray
17.3%+480
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes96Sean
Manaea
17.2%+480
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes93Kyle
Wright
16.8%+495
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo99Nick
Pivetta
16.8%+495
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Sandy
Alcantara
16.7%+500
Jonathan
India
CINNo98Taijuan
Walker
16.6%+500
Jose
Miranda
MINNo107Ryan
Pepiot
16.5%+505
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Johnny
Cueto
16.4%+510
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYYes99Robbie
Ray
16.4%+510
Ty
France
SEAYes99Nestor
Cortes
16.4%+510
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo110Noah
Syndergaard
16.2%+515
Max
Muncy
LADYes102Sonny
Gray
16.2%+515
Joey
Gallo
LADYes102Sonny
Gray
16.2%+515
C.J.
Cron
COLYes108Jose
Quintana
16.1%+520
Ramon
Laureano
OAKNo94Touki
Toussaint
16.1%+520
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo103Brandon
Woodruff
16.0%+525
Starling
Marte
NYMNo98T.J.
Zeuch
16.0%+525
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes95T.J.
Zeuch
15.9%+530
Salvador
Perez
KCNo92Johnny
Cueto
15.8%+530
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Jakob
Junis
15.8%+535
Jose
Trevino
NYYYes99Robbie
Ray
15.7%+535
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes93Madison
Bumgarner
15.6%+540
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes102Sonny
Gray
15.6%+545
Andrew
McCutchen
MILYes103Jeffrey
Springs
15.5%+545
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes108Jose
Quintana
15.4%+550
Charlie
Blackmon
COLNo109Jose
Quintana
15.4%+550
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes95T.J.
Zeuch
15.3%+555
Mitch
Haniger
SEAYes99Nestor
Cortes
15.0%+565
Michael
Chavis
PITYes93Madison
Bumgarner
14.9%+570
Luis
Urias
MILYes103Jeffrey
Springs
14.8%+575
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96Josiah
Gray
14.8%+575
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFNo95Sean
Manaea
14.8%+575
Tyler
Naquin
NYMYes95T.J.
Zeuch
14.7%+580
Trent
Grisham
SDYes95Jakob
Junis
14.7%+580
Albert
Pujols
STLYes108Kyle
Freeland
14.7%+580
Paul
DeJong
STLYes108Kyle
Freeland
14.7%+580
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo101Justin
Verlander
14.5%+590
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo101Justin
Verlander
14.5%+590
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo112Jose
Berrios
14.3%+600
Jo
Adell
LAANo94Paul
Blackburn
14.3%+600
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Aaron
Civale
14.2%+600
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWYes92Kris
Bubic
14.2%+605
Josh
Bell
SDYes95Jakob
Junis
14.0%+615
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes99Mitch
Keller
13.8%+620
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Glenn
Otto
13.8%+625
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes110Jose
Berrios
13.6%+635
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo99Nick
Pivetta
13.6%+635
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Kyle
Wright
13.6%+635
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo99Kyle
Wright
13.6%+635
Austin
Hays
BALNo112Jose
Berrios
13.6%+640
A.J.
Pollock
CHWYes92Kris
Bubic
13.5%+640
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWYes92Kris
Bubic
13.5%+640
Luis
Robert
CHWYes92Kris
Bubic
13.5%+640
Corey
Seager
TEXYes102Justin
Verlander
13.5%+640
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes102Sonny
Gray
13.5%+640
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes102Justin
Verlander
13.5%+640
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes101Brandon
Woodruff
13.4%+645
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes95T.J.
Zeuch
13.4%+650
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo110Noah
Syndergaard
13.4%+650
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes94Drew
Hutchison
13.3%+655
Brandon
Drury
SDNo96Jakob
Junis
13.2%+655
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo107Ryan
Pepiot
13.0%+665
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo94Touki
Toussaint
13.0%+670
Donovan
Solano
CINNo98Taijuan
Walker
12.8%+680
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes103Justin
Steele
12.6%+695
Tyrone
Taylor
MILYes103Jeffrey
Springs
12.6%+695
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes99Mitch
Keller
12.5%+705
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Glenn
Otto
12.4%+705
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes108Jose
Quintana
12.3%+710
Chris
Taylor
LADNo107Sonny
Gray
12.3%+715
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Glenn
Otto
12.0%+730
Joey
Votto
CINYes95Taijuan
Walker
12.0%+730
Juan
Soto
SDYes95Jakob
Junis
12.0%+730
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes94Aaron
Civale
11.9%+740
Jake
McCarthy
ARIYes99Mitch
Keller
11.7%+750
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Johnny
Cueto
11.7%+755
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes102Justin
Verlander
11.3%+785
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes94Aaron
Civale
11.2%+790
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes94Drew
Hutchison
11.2%+790
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo112Dean
Kremer
11.2%+795
Maikel
Franco
WSHYes103Justin
Steele
11.0%+805
Lewin
Diaz
MIAYes106Noah
Syndergaard
10.9%+820
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo92Johnny
Cueto
10.8%+825
Gio
Urshela
MINNo107Ryan
Pepiot
10.8%+830
Elias
Diaz
COLYes108Jose
Quintana
10.7%+840
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes95Jakob
Junis
10.6%+840
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes95T.J.
Zeuch
10.6%+840
Jake
Fraley
CINYes95Taijuan
Walker
10.6%+840
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes95Jakob
Junis
10.6%+840
Eric
Hosmer
BOSYes93Kyle
Wright
10.4%+860
Thairo
Estrada
SFYes96Sean
Manaea
10.4%+865
Joey
Bart
SFYes96Sean
Manaea
10.4%+865
Jake
Meyers
HOUNo101Glenn
Otto
10.2%+880
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes103Justin
Steele
10.2%+880
Victor
Caratini
MILYes103Jeffrey
Springs
10.2%+880
Brandon
Marsh
PHIYes106Sandy
Alcantara
10.1%+890
JJ
Bleday
MIAYes106Noah
Syndergaard
10.1%+890
Kevin
Newman
PITYes93Madison
Bumgarner
10.1%+890
Albert
Almora
Jr.
CINNo98Taijuan
Walker
10.0%+905
Jose
Barrero
CINNo98Taijuan
Walker
10.0%+905
Nolan
Jones
CLEYes94Drew
Hutchison
9.8%+920
Jose
Iglesias
COLYes108Jose
Quintana
9.8%+920
Tyler
O'Neill
STLYes108Kyle
Freeland
9.8%+920
Max
Kepler
MINYes102Ryan
Pepiot
9.7%+925
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes102Justin
Verlander
9.7%+925
David
Peralta
TBYes101Brandon
Woodruff
9.7%+935
Stephen
Piscotty
OAKNo94Touki
Toussaint
9.6%+945
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes110Jose
Berrios
9.6%+945
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo112Dean
Kremer
9.5%+950
Carson
Kelly
ARINo93Mitch
Keller
9.5%+955
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo101Glenn
Otto
9.5%+955
Luis
Garcia
WSHYes103Justin
Steele
9.4%+965
Alec
Bohm
PHINo110Sandy
Alcantara
9.4%+965
Sam
Haggerty
SEAYes99Nestor
Cortes
9.1%+1005
Ehire
Adrianza
ATLYes93Nick
Pivetta
9.0%+1015
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes93Nick
Pivetta
9.0%+1015
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes92Paul
Blackburn
8.9%+1025
Jose
Siri
TBNo103Brandon
Woodruff
8.8%+1030
Austin
Slater
SFYes96Sean
Manaea
8.8%+1035
Oneil
Cruz
PITNo99Madison
Bumgarner
8.7%+1045
Ke'Bryan
Hayes
PITYes93Madison
Bumgarner
8.6%+1070
Michael
Brosseau
MILYes103Jeffrey
Springs
8.5%+1070
Keibert
Ruiz
WSHYes103Justin
Steele
8.5%+1070
Christian
Arroyo
BOSNo99Kyle
Wright
8.5%+1070
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Drew
Hutchison
8.5%+1070
Seby
Zavala
CHWYes92Kris
Bubic
8.5%+1080
Brandon
Crawford
SFNo95Sean
Manaea
8.4%+1090
Jeff
McNeil
NYMYes95T.J.
Zeuch
8.4%+1090
Riley
Greene
DETYes94Aaron
Civale
8.3%+1105
Max
Stassi
LAANo94Paul
Blackburn
8.1%+1130
Yadier
Molina
STLYes108Kyle
Freeland
8.0%+1150
J.D.
Davis
SFYes96Sean
Manaea
8.0%+1150
Jarred
Kelenic
SEANo96Nestor
Cortes
7.8%+1175
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo112Dean
Kremer
7.8%+1185
Austin
Hedges
CLENo99Drew
Hutchison
7.7%+1190
Nelson
Cruz
WSHYes103Justin
Steele
7.7%+1205
Miguel
Rojas
MIANo110Noah
Syndergaard
7.7%+1205
Jacob
Stallings
MIANo110Noah
Syndergaard
7.7%+1205
Tony
Kemp
OAKYes92Touki
Toussaint
7.4%+1250
David
Fletcher
LAANo94Paul
Blackburn
7.4%+1255
Nate
Eaton
KCNo92Johnny
Cueto
7.2%+1280
Nick
Madrigal
CHCNo103Josiah
Gray
7.2%+1285
Jesse
Winker
SEANo96Nestor
Cortes
7.2%+1295
Ezequiel
Duran
TEXNo101Justin
Verlander
7.1%+1310
Bubba
Thompson
TEXNo101Justin
Verlander
7.1%+1310
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes108Kyle
Freeland
7.1%+1310
Josh
Harrison
CHWYes92Kris
Bubic
6.9%+1350
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes92Kris
Bubic
6.9%+1350
Zach
McKinstry
CHCYes96Josiah
Gray
6.9%+1350
Christian
Yelich
MILNo101Jeffrey
Springs
6.8%+1365
Robbie
Grossman
ATLYes93Nick
Pivetta
6.7%+1390
Eddie
Rosario
ATLYes93Nick
Pivetta
6.7%+1390
Lars
Nootbaar
STLNo109Kyle
Freeland
6.6%+1420
Isiah
Kiner-Falefa
NYYYes99Robbie
Ray
6.5%+1430
Luis
Arraez
MINYes102Ryan
Pepiot
6.5%+1450
Nick
Gordon
MINYes102Ryan
Pepiot
6.5%+1450
Taylor
Walls
TBYes101Brandon
Woodruff
6.4%+1465
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo103Josiah
Gray
6.4%+1470
Luis
Gonzalez
SFYes96Sean
Manaea
6.3%+1475

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