MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 8/12/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
COLZach
Davies
12.56.3761.2%45.3%30.8%19.3%11.2%
ARIAntonio
Senzatela
12.56.1357.5%41.5%27.4%16.6%9.3%
HOUAdam
Oller
8.55.3744.9%29.4%17.5%9.5%4.7%
LADDaniel
Lynch
9.05.3444.3%28.9%17.1%9.3%4.6%
SDCory
Abbott
9.05.3444.3%28.9%17.1%9.3%4.6%
CHWDaniel
Norris
8.55.0439.1%24.4%13.8%7.1%3.3%
TORCal
Quantrill
9.05.0038.4%23.8%13.3%6.8%3.2%
NYYNathan
Eovaldi
9.54.9337.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
BOSDomingo
German
9.54.5730.9%17.8%9.2%4.4%1.9%
SFBryse
Wilson
7.54.5530.6%17.5%9.1%4.3%1.8%
MINPatrick
Sandoval
8.04.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
STLEric
Lauer
7.54.1323.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
ATLPablo
Lopez
7.54.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
TBAustin
Voth
7.54.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
NYMRanger
Suarez
7.04.0422.1%11.5%5.4%2.3%0.9%
CLEJose
Berrios
9.04.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
LAATyler
Mahle
8.03.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
KCTony
Gonsolin
9.03.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
WSHMike
Clevinger
9.03.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
DETMichael
Kopech
8.53.4613.7%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
BALCorey
Kluber
7.53.4413.5%6.1%2.4%0.9%0.3%
MIAJake
Odorizzi
7.53.4413.5%6.1%2.4%0.9%0.3%
MILJordan
Montgomery
7.53.3712.6%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
OAKLuis
Garcia
8.53.139.8%4.0%1.5%0.5%0.2%
PHIMax
Scherzer
7.02.968.0%3.2%1.1%0.3%0.1%
PITCarlos
Rodon
7.52.957.9%3.1%1.1%0.3%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Max
Scherzer
PHI7.694.5%87.5%76.9%63.5%49.0%35.2%23.5%
Carlos
Rodon
PIT7.694.4%87.4%76.8%63.4%48.9%35.0%23.4%
Josh
Sborz
SEA6.790.2%80.0%66.2%50.8%36.0%23.5%14.2%
Luis
Garcia
OAK6.387.1%74.8%59.5%43.5%29.3%18.1%10.3%
Pablo
Lopez
ATL5.983.9%70.0%53.6%37.6%24.1%14.2%7.7%
Tyler
Mahle
LAA5.883.2%69.0%52.5%36.5%23.2%13.5%7.2%
Patrick
Sandoval
MIN5.681.3%66.2%49.3%33.4%20.7%11.7%6.1%
Tony
Gonsolin
KC5.580.2%64.7%47.6%31.9%19.4%10.8%5.5%
Corey
Kluber
BAL5.478.4%62.3%45.0%29.5%17.6%9.6%4.8%
Jose
Berrios
CLE5.377.1%60.6%43.1%27.8%16.3%8.7%4.3%
Michael
Kopech
DET5.275.7%58.7%41.2%26.2%15.1%7.9%3.8%
Eric
Lauer
STL5.073.8%56.3%38.8%24.1%13.5%6.9%3.3%
Mike
Clevinger
WSH5.073.2%55.6%38.1%23.5%13.1%6.7%3.1%
Nathan
Eovaldi
NYY5.072.8%55.1%37.5%23.1%12.8%6.5%3.0%
George
Kirby
TEX4.972.6%54.9%37.4%22.9%12.7%6.4%3.0%
Ranger
Suarez
NYM4.870.6%52.4%34.9%20.9%11.3%5.6%2.5%
Daniel
Lynch
LAD4.668.1%49.4%32.1%18.7%9.9%4.7%2.1%
Jake
Odorizzi
MIA4.464.2%45.1%28.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
Jordan
Montgomery
MIL4.463.2%43.9%27.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
Zach
Davies
COL4.158.4%38.9%22.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
Cal
Quantrill
TOR4.158.2%38.7%22.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
Cory
Abbott
SD4.055.7%36.1%20.7%10.6%4.8%2.0%0.7%
Domingo
German
BOS3.954.3%34.8%19.6%9.9%4.4%1.8%0.7%
Antonio
Senzatela
ARI3.852.2%32.8%18.1%8.9%3.9%1.6%0.6%
Daniel
Norris
CHW3.751.4%32.1%17.6%8.5%3.7%1.5%0.5%
Austin
Voth
TB3.749.7%30.5%16.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
Adam
Oller
HOU3.238.6%21.1%10.0%4.2%1.5%0.5%0.2%
Bryse
Wilson
SF3.137.1%19.8%9.2%3.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
28.0%+255
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Adam
Oller
27.8%+260
Juan
Soto
SDYes104Cory
Abbott
25.7%+290
Brandon
Drury
SDNo106Cory
Abbott
25.6%+290
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo95George
Kirby
25.5%+290
Nolan
Arenado
STLYes91Eric
Lauer
24.6%+305
Mookie
Betts
LADYes92Daniel
Lynch
24.4%+310
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Cal
Quantrill
24.4%+310
Trea
Turner
LADYes92Daniel
Lynch
24.0%+315
Byron
Buxton
MINYes103Patrick
Sandoval
23.9%+320
Joc
Pederson
SFYes87Bryse
Wilson
22.8%+340
Jose
Miranda
MINYes103Patrick
Sandoval
21.8%+360
Hunter
Renfroe
MILYes91Jordan
Montgomery
21.4%+365
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108Tyler
Mahle
21.3%+370
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Domingo
German
21.2%+370
Manny
Machado
SDNo106Cory
Abbott
21.2%+370
Vladimir
Guerrero Jr.
TORNo101Cal
Quantrill
21.0%+375
Seth
Brown
OAKYes102Luis
Garcia
21.0%+375
Brandon
Lowe
TBYes92Austin
Voth
21.0%+375
Corey
Seager
TEXYes101George
Kirby
20.8%+380
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo98Max
Scherzer
20.5%+385
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Cal
Quantrill
20.5%+390
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLYes91Eric
Lauer
20.4%+390
Willy
Adames
MILYes91Jordan
Montgomery
20.4%+390
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes95Max
Scherzer
20.4%+390
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes108Tyler
Mahle
20.1%+395
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes93Nathan
Eovaldi
20.1%+395
Christian
Walker
ARINo108Antonio
Senzatela
19.8%+405
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes101Josh
Sborz
19.7%+405
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes93Domingo
German
19.6%+410
Anthony
Santander
BALYes92Corey
Kluber
19.4%+415
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Cal
Quantrill
19.4%+415
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Adam
Oller
19.4%+415
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes101George
Kirby
19.1%+420
Taylor
Ward
LAANo103Tyler
Mahle
19.1%+425
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo99Domingo
German
19.1%+425
Chris
Taylor
LADYes92Daniel
Lynch
19.0%+425
Will
Smith
LADYes92Daniel
Lynch
19.0%+425
Gary
Sanchez
MINYes103Patrick
Sandoval
18.9%+430
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Adam
Oller
18.8%+430
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Adam
Oller
18.7%+435
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWYes106Daniel
Norris
18.6%+435
C.J.
Cron
COLNo108Zach
Davies
18.6%+440
Josh
Bell
SDYes104Cory
Abbott
18.4%+445
Luke
Voit
WSHNo106Mike
Clevinger
17.7%+465
Danny
Jansen
TORNo101Cal
Quantrill
17.6%+465
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo101Luis
Garcia
17.6%+465
Matt
Olson
ATLYes92Pablo
Lopez
17.3%+480
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes109Antonio
Senzatela
17.1%+485
Brandon
Belt
SFYes87Bryse
Wilson
17.1%+485
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes94Jose
Berrios
17.0%+490
Salvador
Perez
KCNo92Tony
Gonsolin
17.0%+490
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo95Josh
Sborz
16.8%+495
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo90Pablo
Lopez
16.7%+500
Joey
Bart
SFNo90Bryse
Wilson
16.7%+500
Tyrone
Taylor
MILYes91Jordan
Montgomery
16.5%+505
Cody
Bellinger
LADNo92Daniel
Lynch
16.4%+510
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Adam
Oller
16.4%+510
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo106Mike
Clevinger
16.4%+510
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes109Zach
Davies
16.4%+510
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes98Ranger
Suarez
16.3%+515
Albert
Pujols
STLYes91Eric
Lauer
15.9%+530
Darick
Hall
PHIYes95Max
Scherzer
15.9%+530
Jose
Abreu
CHWYes106Daniel
Norris
15.9%+530
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Adam
Oller
15.8%+535
Mitch
Haniger
SEANo95Josh
Sborz
15.6%+540
Gio
Urshela
MINYes103Patrick
Sandoval
15.5%+545
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
15.5%+545
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes92Austin
Voth
15.5%+545
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo94Austin
Voth
15.5%+545
LaMonte
Wade Jr
SFYes87Bryse
Wilson
15.4%+550
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWYes106Daniel
Norris
15.2%+560
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes94Jose
Berrios
15.2%+560
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes104Cory
Abbott
15.1%+560
Trent
Grisham
SDYes104Cory
Abbott
15.1%+560
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes109Antonio
Senzatela
15.0%+565
Rougned
Odor
BALYes92Corey
Kluber
14.9%+570
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
14.9%+570
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo94Austin
Voth
14.9%+570
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes103Patrick
Sandoval
14.8%+575
Max
Stassi
LAANo103Tyler
Mahle
14.7%+580
Luis
Urias
MILYes91Jordan
Montgomery
14.7%+580
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo108Zach
Davies
14.6%+585
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo92Daniel
Lynch
14.4%+595
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes109Zach
Davies
14.3%+600
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo101Adam
Oller
13.8%+625
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo101Adam
Oller
13.8%+625
Ramon
Laureano
OAKNo101Luis
Garcia
13.8%+625
Myles
Straw
CLENo101Jose
Berrios
13.8%+625
Austin
Riley
ATLNo90Pablo
Lopez
13.8%+625
Oneil
Cruz
PITNo87Carlos
Rodon
13.8%+625
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes106Daniel
Norris
13.7%+630
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo106Mike
Clevinger
13.7%+630
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes92Austin
Voth
13.7%+630
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
13.6%+635
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes98Ranger
Suarez
13.5%+640
Darin
Ruf
NYMYes98Ranger
Suarez
13.5%+640
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo98Max
Scherzer
13.5%+645
Sam
Haggerty
SEAYes101Josh
Sborz
13.4%+645
Paul
DeJong
STLYes91Eric
Lauer
13.4%+650
Keston
Hiura
MILYes91Jordan
Montgomery
13.4%+650
Carlos
Correa
MINYes103Patrick
Sandoval
13.4%+650
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes104Cory
Abbott
13.0%+670
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHYes104Mike
Clevinger
13.0%+670
Riley
Greene
DETYes111Michael
Kopech
12.9%+670
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
12.9%+675
Trayce
Thompson
LADYes92Daniel
Lynch
12.8%+680
Pete
Alonso
NYMYes98Ranger
Suarez
12.8%+680
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes109Antonio
Senzatela
12.7%+685
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes101George
Kirby
12.7%+690
Jo
Adell
LAANo103Tyler
Mahle
12.6%+690
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo90Jake
Odorizzi
12.5%+700
Thairo
Estrada
SFNo90Bryse
Wilson
12.5%+700
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes87Bryse
Wilson
12.4%+705
David
Peralta
TBYes92Austin
Voth
12.4%+710
Luis
Garcia
WSHNo106Mike
Clevinger
12.2%+720
Luis
Robert
CHWYes106Daniel
Norris
12.1%+725
Mark
Canha
NYMYes98Ranger
Suarez
12.1%+730
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes101Josh
Sborz
11.9%+735
Michael
Chavis
PITYes90Carlos
Rodon
11.9%+740
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo90Pablo
Lopez
11.9%+740
Ty
France
SEANo95Josh
Sborz
11.8%+750
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes87Bryse
Wilson
11.8%+750
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo101Cal
Quantrill
11.7%+755
Austin
Hays
BALNo94Corey
Kluber
11.7%+755
Elias
Diaz
COLNo108Zach
Davies
11.6%+760
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo108Zach
Davies
11.6%+760
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo98Max
Scherzer
11.4%+775
Starling
Marte
NYMYes98Ranger
Suarez
11.3%+785
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes90Carlos
Rodon
11.2%+790
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Tony
Gonsolin
11.0%+810
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo94Corey
Kluber
11.0%+810
Andrew
McCutchen
MILYes91Jordan
Montgomery
10.6%+840
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo90Pablo
Lopez
10.6%+845
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo90Jake
Odorizzi
10.6%+845
Peyton
Burdick
MIANo90Jake
Odorizzi
10.6%+845
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes94Jose
Berrios
10.5%+850
Ke'Bryan
Hayes
PITYes90Carlos
Rodon
10.5%+850
A.J.
Pollock
CHWYes106Daniel
Norris
10.5%+855
Lars
Nootbaar
STLNo97Eric
Lauer
10.5%+855
Michael
Harris II
ATLYes92Pablo
Lopez
10.3%+870
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo94Corey
Kluber
10.3%+870
Bobby
Witt Jr.
KCNo92Tony
Gonsolin
10.1%+890
Carson
Kelly
ARINo108Antonio
Senzatela
10.0%+895
Tyler
O'Neill
STLYes91Eric
Lauer
9.9%+910
Tommy
Edman
STLYes91Eric
Lauer
9.9%+910
Brandon
Marsh
PHIYes95Max
Scherzer
9.9%+910
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes95Max
Scherzer
9.9%+910
Tommy
La Stella
SFYes87Bryse
Wilson
9.8%+920
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo95George
Kirby
9.7%+935
Victor
Reyes
DETYes111Michael
Kopech
9.7%+935
Akil
Baddoo
DETYes111Michael
Kopech
9.7%+935
Eddie
Rosario
ATLYes92Pablo
Lopez
9.6%+940
Nick
Pratto
KCYes92Tony
Gonsolin
9.6%+940
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes108Tyler
Mahle
9.4%+960
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo92Tony
Gonsolin
9.4%+965
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Domingo
German
9.3%+975
Justin
Turner
LADYes92Daniel
Lynch
9.2%+985
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo90Pablo
Lopez
9.2%+985
Victor
Caratini
MILYes91Jordan
Montgomery
9.1%+995
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes92Corey
Kluber
8.9%+1025
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes92Corey
Kluber
8.9%+1025
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo94Austin
Voth
8.9%+1025
Ramon
Urias
BALNo94Corey
Kluber
8.9%+1025
Jose
Siri
TBNo94Austin
Voth
8.9%+1025
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes111Michael
Kopech
8.8%+1040
Jake
Meyers
HOUNo101Adam
Oller
8.7%+1050
Josh
Rojas
ARIYes109Antonio
Senzatela
8.6%+1060
Jake
McCarthy
ARIYes109Antonio
Senzatela
8.6%+1060
Alec
Bohm
PHINo98Max
Scherzer
8.5%+1085
Nolan
Jones
CLEYes94Jose
Berrios
8.3%+1105
Ildemaro
Vargas
WSHYes104Mike
Clevinger
8.3%+1110
Javier
Baez
DETNo106Michael
Kopech
8.2%+1115
Eric
Hosmer
BOSYes93Domingo
German
8.2%+1115
Taylor
Walls
TBYes92Austin
Voth
8.1%+1125
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes101George
Kirby
8.1%+1140
Amed
Rosario
CLENo101Jose
Berrios
7.9%+1165
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo101Cal
Quantrill
7.9%+1165
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes111Michael
Kopech
7.9%+1165
Harold
Castro
DETYes111Michael
Kopech
7.9%+1165
Christian
Arroyo
BOSNo99Domingo
German
7.7%+1190
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes104Mike
Clevinger
7.4%+1245
Keibert
Ruiz
WSHYes104Mike
Clevinger
7.4%+1245
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes92Tony
Gonsolin
7.4%+1250
Sam
Hilliard
COLYes109Zach
Davies
6.9%+1355
Yadier
Molina
STLYes91Eric
Lauer
6.8%+1360
Michael
Brosseau
MILYes91Jordan
Montgomery
6.8%+1360
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes91Eric
Lauer
6.8%+1360
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYes108Tyler
Mahle
6.8%+1370
Gilberto
Celestino
MINYes103Patrick
Sandoval
6.8%+1375
Steven
Kwan
CLEYes94Jose
Berrios
6.8%+1375
Dylan
Moore
SEANo95Josh
Sborz
6.7%+1395
Bubba
Thompson
TEXNo95George
Kirby
6.7%+1395
Jonathan
Schoop
DETNo106Michael
Kopech
6.5%+1430
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNo106Cory
Abbott
6.5%+1430
David
Fletcher
LAANo103Tyler
Mahle
6.4%+1470
Bryan
De La Cruz
MIANo90Jake
Odorizzi
6.4%+1470

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