MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 8/15/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
PHIMike
Minor
9.05.0839.8%25.0%14.2%7.3%3.5%
CLEBryan
Garcia
8.54.9337.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
TORKyle
Bradish
9.04.8936.5%22.2%12.2%6.1%2.8%
MINKris
Bubic
8.54.8535.8%21.6%11.8%5.9%2.7%
TEXJames
Kaprielian
8.54.6532.3%18.9%9.9%4.8%2.1%
SFMadison
Bumgarner
8.04.5230.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
HOUJohnny
Cueto
8.54.4729.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
NYYJalen
Beeks
7.54.4729.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
CLEDrew
Hutchison
7.54.3527.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
ATLCarlos
Carrasco
8.04.2826.0%14.2%7.0%3.1%1.3%
CHCJosiah
Gray
8.04.2625.7%13.9%6.8%3.0%1.2%
LADFreddy
Peralta
7.54.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
BALYusei
Kikuchi
9.04.1123.2%12.2%5.8%2.5%1.0%
CHWJose
Urquidy
8.54.0322.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
CINNoah
Syndergaard
9.03.9220.2%10.3%4.7%1.9%0.7%
OAKGlenn
Otto
8.53.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
WSHMarcus
Stroman
8.03.7417.6%8.5%3.7%1.5%0.5%
NYMSpencer
Strider
8.03.7217.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
KCJoe
Ryan
8.53.6516.3%7.7%3.3%1.3%0.4%
DETXzavion
Curry
8.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
LAALuis
Castillo
7.03.5314.6%6.8%2.8%1.0%0.4%
ARIAlex
Cobb
8.03.4814.0%6.4%2.6%1.0%0.3%
SEAShohei
Ohtani
7.03.4713.8%6.3%2.6%0.9%0.3%
SDSandy
Alcantara
6.53.4213.2%5.9%2.4%0.9%0.3%
MILJulio
Urias
7.53.3512.3%5.4%2.1%0.8%0.2%
DETAaron
Civale
7.53.1510.0%4.2%1.5%0.5%0.2%
MIAJoe
Musgrove
6.53.089.2%3.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%
TBGerrit
Cole
7.53.038.7%3.5%1.3%0.4%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Shohei
Ohtani
SEA7.995.5%89.4%79.9%67.4%53.3%39.3%27.1%
Gerrit
Cole
TB7.594.1%86.9%76.0%62.3%47.7%33.9%22.5%
Sandy
Alcantara
SD6.689.7%79.2%65.1%49.5%34.8%22.5%13.5%
Luis
Castillo
LAA6.689.6%78.9%64.8%49.2%34.5%22.3%13.3%
Joe
Musgrove
MIA6.488.3%76.8%62.1%46.2%31.7%20.0%11.7%
Spencer
Strider
NYM6.286.7%74.2%58.7%42.7%28.5%17.5%9.9%
Alex
Cobb
ARI6.085.1%71.9%55.9%39.9%26.0%15.6%8.6%
Julio
Urias
MIL6.084.5%71.0%54.8%38.7%25.1%14.9%8.1%
Joe
Ryan
KC5.883.2%69.0%52.5%36.5%23.2%13.5%7.2%
Carlos
Carrasco
ATL5.781.6%66.7%49.8%33.9%21.1%12.0%6.3%
Josiah
Gray
CHC5.377.5%61.0%43.7%28.3%16.7%8.9%4.4%
Jose
Urquidy
CHW5.175.4%58.4%40.9%25.9%14.8%7.8%3.7%
Freddy
Peralta
LAD5.174.2%56.8%39.3%24.5%13.9%7.1%3.4%
Johnny
Cueto
HOU4.869.8%51.5%34.0%20.2%10.9%5.3%2.4%
Ryan
Yarbrough
NYY4.769.2%50.7%33.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
Noah
Syndergaard
CIN4.667.4%48.7%31.4%18.2%9.5%4.5%2.0%
Yusei
Kikuchi
BAL4.666.8%47.9%30.7%17.7%9.2%4.3%1.9%
Mike
Minor
PHI4.565.9%47.0%29.9%17.0%8.7%4.1%1.7%
Kris
Bubic
MIN4.463.5%44.3%27.5%15.3%7.6%3.5%1.4%
Aaron
Civale
DET4.362.1%42.8%26.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
Madison
Bumgarner
SF4.361.6%42.2%25.7%13.9%6.8%3.0%1.2%
Marcus
Stroman
WSH4.361.6%42.2%25.7%13.9%6.8%3.0%1.2%
Glenn
Otto
OAK4.159.2%39.7%23.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
James
Kaprielian
TEX4.056.8%37.3%21.6%11.2%5.2%2.2%0.8%
Kyle
Bradish
TOR4.056.5%36.9%21.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
Drew
Hutchison
CLE3.342.8%24.5%12.2%5.4%2.1%0.7%0.2%
Xzavion
Curry
DET3.342.4%24.1%12.0%5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%
Bryan
Garcia
CLE3.137.3%20.0%9.3%3.8%1.4%0.5%0.1%
Jalen
Beeks
NYY1.78.9%2.8%0.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Kyle
Schwarber
PHINo113Mike
Minor
27.6%+260
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo101Kyle
Bradish
26.9%+270
Byron
Buxton
MINYes98Kris
Bubic
25.8%+285
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes111Johnny
Cueto
24.9%+300
Rhys
Hoskins
PHIYes111Mike
Minor
24.6%+305
J.T.
Realmuto
PHIYes111Mike
Minor
23.0%+335
Luke
Voit
WSHNo106Marcus
Stroman
22.8%+340
Aaron
Judge
NYYYes103Ryan
Yarbrough
22.3%+350
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo106Josiah
Gray
22.3%+350
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo106Josiah
Gray
21.7%+360
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Drew
Hutchison
21.7%+360
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Kyle
Bradish
21.5%+365
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Kyle
Bradish
21.5%+365
Danny
Jansen
TORNo101Kyle
Bradish
21.0%+375
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes109Gerrit
Cole
20.9%+380
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Carlos
Carrasco
20.7%+385
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo95James
Kaprielian
20.6%+385
Austin
Hays
BALYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
20.4%+390
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo106Johnny
Cueto
20.1%+400
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Carlos
Carrasco
19.9%+405
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
19.8%+405
Eric
Haase
DETNo99Aaron
Civale
19.6%+410
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes111Johnny
Cueto
19.3%+420
Anthony
Santander
BALYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
19.2%+420
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo98Joe
Ryan
18.9%+430
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo106Josiah
Gray
18.9%+430
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes111Jose
Urquidy
18.7%+435
Corey
Seager
TEXYes101James
Kaprielian
18.6%+440
Mookie
Betts
LADNo103Freddy
Peralta
18.5%+440
Brandon
Lowe
TBYes109Gerrit
Cole
18.4%+445
Salvador
Perez
KCNo98Joe
Ryan
18.4%+445
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108Luis
Castillo
18.3%+445
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes101James
Kaprielian
18.0%+455
Trea
Turner
LADNo103Freddy
Peralta
17.9%+460
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo103Gerrit
Cole
17.9%+460
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes100Spencer
Strider
17.8%+460
Tyler
Naquin
NYMYes100Spencer
Strider
17.8%+460
MJ
Melendez
KCYes99Joe
Ryan
17.7%+465
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes108Luis
Castillo
17.6%+465
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes101Freddy
Peralta
17.4%+475
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes101Freddy
Peralta
17.4%+475
Taylor
Ward
LAANo103Luis
Castillo
17.3%+480
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Bryan
Garcia
17.0%+490
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes108Shohei
Ohtani
17.0%+490
Max
Muncy
LADYes101Freddy
Peralta
16.7%+500
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes101James
Kaprielian
16.7%+500
Chris
Taylor
LADNo103Freddy
Peralta
16.7%+500
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo106Josiah
Gray
16.4%+510
Hunter
Renfroe
MILYes103Julio
Urias
16.2%+515
Rougned
Odor
BALNo94Yusei
Kikuchi
16.2%+515
Brandon
Drury
SDNo90Sandy
Alcantara
16.1%+520
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo97Carlos
Carrasco
15.9%+530
William
Contreras
ATLNo97Carlos
Carrasco
15.9%+530
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Jose
Urquidy
15.7%+535
Joey
Meneses
WSHNo106Marcus
Stroman
15.7%+535
Will
Smith
LADNo103Freddy
Peralta
15.4%+550
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo106Johnny
Cueto
15.1%+565
Nick
Castellanos
PHIYes111Mike
Minor
15.0%+565
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes103Xzavion
Curry
15.0%+565
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes109Gerrit
Cole
15.0%+565
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes98Kris
Bubic
14.9%+570
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Xzavion
Curry
14.9%+570
Joey
Gallo
LADYes101Freddy
Peralta
14.8%+575
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo103Shohei
Ohtani
14.7%+580
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo103Gerrit
Cole
14.7%+580
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Carlos
Carrasco
14.6%+585
Ramon
Urias
BALYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
14.6%+585
Joey
Bart
SFYes90Madison
Bumgarner
14.5%+590
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo101Kyle
Bradish
14.5%+590
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo106Jose
Urquidy
14.4%+595
Aledmys
Diaz
HOUNo106Johnny
Cueto
14.4%+595
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo106Jose
Urquidy
14.4%+595
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes103Aaron
Civale
14.3%+600
David
Peralta
TBYes109Gerrit
Cole
14.3%+600
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes87Alex
Cobb
14.2%+600
Carlos
Correa
MINYes98Kris
Bubic
14.2%+605
Edmundo
Sosa
PHIYes111Mike
Minor
14.2%+605
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo111Noah
Syndergaard
14.2%+605
Jonathan
India
CINNo111Noah
Syndergaard
14.2%+605
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes108Shohei
Ohtani
14.2%+605
Keston
Hiura
MILYes103Julio
Urias
14.1%+610
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo103Shohei
Ohtani
14.0%+610
Bryson
Stott
PHINo113Mike
Minor
13.9%+615
Jorge
Mateo
BALYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
13.9%+620
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHYes104Marcus
Stroman
13.7%+630
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Jose
Urquidy
13.7%+630
Eric
Haase
DETNo99Xzavion
Curry
13.6%+635
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYNo109Ryan
Yarbrough
13.5%+640
Seth
Brown
OAKYes101Glenn
Otto
13.4%+645
Josh
Donaldson
NYYYes103Ryan
Yarbrough
13.4%+650
Mitch
Haniger
SEANo103Shohei
Ohtani
13.3%+650
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes100Spencer
Strider
13.3%+655
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes100Spencer
Strider
13.3%+655
Evan
Longoria
SFYes90Madison
Bumgarner
13.3%+655
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes90Madison
Bumgarner
13.3%+655
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes99Joe
Ryan
13.2%+660
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Kyle
Bradish
13.1%+660
Juan
Soto
SDYes92Sandy
Alcantara
13.0%+670
Ian
Happ
CHCYes104Josiah
Gray
13.0%+670
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo106Johnny
Cueto
12.9%+675
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFNo87Madison
Bumgarner
12.7%+685
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes108Luis
Castillo
12.6%+690
Alec
Bohm
PHIYes111Mike
Minor
12.6%+695
Andrew
McCutchen
MILYes103Julio
Urias
12.6%+695
Willy
Adames
MILYes103Julio
Urias
12.6%+695
Thairo
Estrada
SFYes90Madison
Bumgarner
12.6%+695
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes100Spencer
Strider
12.6%+695
Christian
Walker
ARINo90Alex
Cobb
12.5%+700
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo95James
Kaprielian
12.5%+705
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo95Glenn
Otto
12.5%+705
Joey
Votto
CINYes113Noah
Syndergaard
12.3%+710
Jake
Fraley
CINYes113Noah
Syndergaard
12.3%+710
Luis
Robert
CHWNo106Jose
Urquidy
12.2%+720
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Drew
Hutchison
12.1%+725
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Carlos
Carrasco
12.0%+735
Jose
Barrero
CINNo111Noah
Syndergaard
11.9%+740
J.D.
Davis
SFYes90Madison
Bumgarner
11.9%+740
Ty
France
SEANo103Shohei
Ohtani
11.9%+740
Manny
Machado
SDNo90Sandy
Alcantara
11.9%+740
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo90Joe
Musgrove
11.9%+740
Luis
Urias
MILYes103Julio
Urias
11.8%+745
Josh
Bell
SDYes92Sandy
Alcantara
11.7%+755
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
11.6%+760
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo106Jose
Urquidy
11.4%+775
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo106Marcus
Stroman
11.4%+775
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Drew
Hutchison
11.4%+780
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Bryan
Garcia
11.4%+780
Jose
Miranda
MINYes98Kris
Bubic
11.3%+785
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo97Spencer
Strider
11.3%+785
Aristides
Aquino
CINNo111Noah
Syndergaard
11.1%+800
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes100Carlos
Carrasco
11.1%+800
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo101Kyle
Bradish
11.0%+810
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
10.8%+820
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Aaron
Civale
10.8%+830
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo106Johnny
Cueto
10.7%+835
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo106Josiah
Gray
10.7%+835
Harold
Castro
DETYes103Xzavion
Curry
10.6%+840
Gio
Urshela
MINYes98Kris
Bubic
10.6%+845
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes87Alex
Cobb
10.5%+855
Jose
Siri
TBNo103Gerrit
Cole
10.4%+860
Stephen
Piscotty
OAKNo95Glenn
Otto
10.4%+860
Matt
Vierling
PHIYes111Mike
Minor
10.0%+895
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes104Marcus
Stroman
9.9%+910
Carson
Kelly
ARINo90Alex
Cobb
9.9%+910
Yasmani
Grandal
CHWYes111Jose
Urquidy
9.7%+935
Trent
Grisham
SDYes92Sandy
Alcantara
9.6%+940
Eddie
Rosario
ATLYes100Carlos
Carrasco
9.6%+945
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYYes103Ryan
Yarbrough
9.4%+965
Gleyber
Torres
NYYYes103Ryan
Yarbrough
9.4%+965
Tyrone
Taylor
MILYes103Julio
Urias
9.4%+965
Luis
Arraez
MINNo99Kris
Bubic
9.4%+965
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo98Joe
Ryan
9.2%+985
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes87Alex
Cobb
9.1%+995
C.J.
Abrams
WSHYes104Marcus
Stroman
9.1%+1000
Mauricio
Dubon
HOUNo106Johnny
Cueto
9.1%+1000
Austin
Slater
SFYes90Madison
Bumgarner
9.1%+1005
Harold
Castro
DETYes103Aaron
Civale
9.0%+1010
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes101James
Kaprielian
8.9%+1025
Max
Stassi
LAANo103Luis
Castillo
8.8%+1030
Jo
Adell
LAANo103Luis
Castillo
8.8%+1030
Whit
Merrifield
TORNo101Kyle
Bradish
8.7%+1050
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes108Shohei
Ohtani
8.6%+1065
Jose
Trevino
NYYYes103Ryan
Yarbrough
8.5%+1070
Jonathan
Schoop
DETNo99Xzavion
Curry
8.5%+1070
Rafael
Ortega
CHCYes104Josiah
Gray
8.3%+1110
Zach
McKinstry
CHCYes104Josiah
Gray
8.3%+1110
Victor
Robles
WSHNo106Marcus
Stroman
8.2%+1115
Willi
Castro
DETYes103Xzavion
Curry
8.2%+1120
Riley
Greene
DETYes103Aaron
Civale
8.2%+1120
Riley
Greene
DETYes103Xzavion
Curry
8.2%+1120
Kyle
Isbel
KCYes99Joe
Ryan
7.9%+1165
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo101Kyle
Bradish
7.9%+1165
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo90Joe
Musgrove
7.8%+1180
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Drew
Hutchison
7.7%+1190
Donovan
Solano
CINNo111Noah
Syndergaard
7.7%+1195
Michael
Taylor
KCNo98Joe
Ryan
7.7%+1205
Victor
Caratini
MILYes103Julio
Urias
7.7%+1205
Michael
Brosseau
MILYes103Julio
Urias
7.7%+1205
Nick
Madrigal
CHCNo106Josiah
Gray
7.4%+1250
JJ
Bleday
MIAYes92Joe
Musgrove
7.4%+1250
Steven
Kwan
CLEYes103Drew
Hutchison
7.4%+1255
Nolan
Jones
CLEYes103Drew
Hutchison
7.4%+1255
Brandon
Crawford
SFNo87Madison
Bumgarner
7.2%+1295
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Bryan
Garcia
7.0%+1340
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Bryan
Garcia
7.0%+1340
Taylor
Walls
TBYes109Gerrit
Cole
6.9%+1355
Jose
Rojas
LAAYes108Luis
Castillo
6.8%+1370
Elvis
Andrus
OAKNo95Glenn
Otto
6.7%+1395
Lewin
Diaz
MIAYes92Joe
Musgrove
6.6%+1405
Victor
Reyes
DETYes103Aaron
Civale
6.5%+1435
David
Fletcher
LAANo103Luis
Castillo
6.4%+1470

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