3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 8/18/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Manny Machado To Hit a Home Run (+285)/Juan Soto To Hit a Home Run (+285)
The San Diego Padres have a juicy 5.15 implied run total tonight in an elite matchup.
That implied run total is the highest on tonight's slate, and we could see the Padres push past that. They are taking on the Washington Nationals, who will have Anibal Sanchez on the mound. This season, Sanchez doesn't have the biggest sample size, but it's not too different from what he's posted in recent seasons.
Sanchez comes in allowing a .460 SLG, .309 wOBA, 4.47 xFIP, 2.08 HR/9, 47.1% fly-ball rate, and 30.8% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. Against righties, he is allowing a .696 SLG, .486 wOBA, 6.59 xFIP, 4.26 HR/9, 45.7% fly-ball rate, and 52.2% hard-contact rate.
With numbers like those, we have to look directly to Manny Machado, who comes in with a 162 wRC+, .399 wOBA, .218 ISO, 38.3% fly-ball rate, and 35.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handers.
Next would be Juan Soto, who is rocking with a 174 wRC+, .423 wOBA, .267 ISO, 36.4% fly-ball rate, and 21.3% HR/FB ratio versus righties.
It's an elite matchup from top to bottom tonight, so I'm adding Machado To Record an RBI (-110) and Soto To Record an RBI (+120).
Rafael Devers To Record an RBI (+115)
A strong matchup for a great hitter is always a spot to look for a player prop.
That player would be Rafael Devers, who is an elite hitter with a favorable matchup versus JT Brubaker. We see the Boston Red Sox carrying a 4.57 implied run total, so they are expected to keep the offense going again tonight.
This season, Brubaker is allowing a .459 SLG, .343 wOBA, 1.13 HR/9, 42.9% fly-ball rate, and 36.8% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters.
Devers has a stellar 171 wRC+, .413 wOBA, .302 ISO, 42.0% fly-ball rate, and 39.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. I love everything about this matchup, so I'll add a little sprinkle on Devers 2+ RBI (+410).
Andrew Benintendi 2+ Total Bases (+105)
The New York Yankees have a solid matchup tonight in a great hitter's park.
It's no secret that the Yankees have been in a bit of a slump recently, but they still have some good player props to target. They have a 4.57 implied run total and are taking on Jose Berrios, who is struggling this season. Against left-handed hitters, Berrios is allowing a .538 SLG, .378 wOBA, 4.68 xFIP, 2.47 HR/9, and 43.7% fly-ball rate.
I'm going to a plus money prop with Andrew Benintendi to record 2+ total bases at +105. Benintendi is very disciplined at the plate with a low 16.1% strikeout rate and a 132 wRC+, .354 wOBA, and 35.7% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. This is a pretty straightforward spot for Benintendi, who has hits in five of his last six games.
