MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 8/18/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | Anibal Sanchez | 8.0 | 5.15 | 41.0% | 26.0% | 15.0% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
| BAL | Adrian Sampson | 9.0 | 4.92 | 37.0% | 22.6% | 12.5% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| STL | Antonio Senzatela | 8.0 | 4.74 | 33.9% | 20.1% | 10.8% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| BOS | JT Brubaker | 8.5 | 4.57 | 30.9% | 17.8% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| NYY | Jose Berrios | 8.5 | 4.57 | 30.9% | 17.8% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| TEX | Zach Logue | 8.0 | 4.52 | 30.0% | 17.2% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| HOU | Lucas Giolito | 8.5 | 4.45 | 28.9% | 16.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| TB | Brad Keller | 7.5 | 4.25 | 25.5% | 13.8% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| CHC | Spenser Watkins | 9.0 | 4.08 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| CHW | Luis Garcia | 8.5 | 4.05 | 22.3% | 11.6% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| PIT | Josh Winckowski | 8.5 | 3.93 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| TOR | Frankie Montas | 8.5 | 3.93 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| LAD | Corbin Burnes | 7.5 | 3.78 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| SF | Zac Gallen | 7.0 | 3.76 | 17.9% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| MIL | Andrew Heaney | 7.5 | 3.72 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| NYM | Max Fried | 7.0 | 3.63 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| OAK | Dane Dunning | 8.0 | 3.48 | 14.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| ATL | Jacob deGrom | 7.0 | 3.37 | 12.6% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| COL | Adam Wainwright | 8.0 | 3.26 | 11.2% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| KC | Luis Patino | 7.5 | 3.25 | 11.1% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| ARI | Logan Webb | 7.0 | 3.24 | 11.0% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| WSH | Yu Darvish | 8.0 | 2.85 | 7.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | LAD | 7.4 | 93.8% | 86.3% | 75.1% | 61.2% | 46.5% | 32.8% | 21.6% |
| Yu Darvish | WSH | 7.0 | 92.0% | 83.1% | 70.4% | 55.6% | 40.7% | 27.6% | 17.4% |
| Andrew Heaney | MIL | 6.5 | 88.5% | 77.2% | 62.5% | 46.7% | 32.1% | 20.4% | 11.9% |
| Jacob deGrom | ATL | 6.3 | 87.0% | 74.7% | 59.4% | 43.4% | 29.1% | 18.0% | 10.2% |
| Lucas Giolito | HOU | 6.2 | 86.7% | 74.2% | 58.7% | 42.7% | 28.5% | 17.5% | 9.9% |
| Luis Garcia | CHW | 6.2 | 86.7% | 74.2% | 58.7% | 42.7% | 28.5% | 17.5% | 9.9% |
| Logan Webb | ARI | 5.8 | 82.6% | 68.2% | 51.5% | 35.5% | 22.4% | 12.9% | 6.8% |
| Adam Wainwright | COL | 5.7 | 82.4% | 67.9% | 51.2% | 35.2% | 22.1% | 12.7% | 6.7% |
| JT Brubaker | BOS | 5.5 | 79.9% | 64.4% | 47.3% | 31.6% | 19.2% | 10.6% | 5.4% |
| Max Fried | NYM | 5.5 | 79.8% | 64.2% | 47.1% | 31.4% | 19.1% | 10.6% | 5.4% |
| Frankie Montas | TOR | 5.2 | 75.7% | 58.7% | 41.2% | 26.2% | 15.1% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
| Zac Gallen | SF | 4.9 | 72.1% | 54.2% | 36.6% | 22.3% | 12.3% | 6.2% | 2.8% |
| Dane Dunning | OAK | 4.7 | 68.6% | 50.0% | 32.6% | 19.1% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Jose Berrios | NYY | 4.6 | 68.1% | 49.4% | 32.1% | 18.7% | 9.9% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Brad Keller | TB | 4.5 | 65.8% | 46.8% | 29.7% | 16.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Anibal Sanchez | SD | 3.9 | 55.5% | 35.9% | 20.6% | 10.5% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Adrian Sampson | BAL | 3.8 | 52.4% | 33.0% | 18.3% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Luis Patino | KC | 3.8 | 51.6% | 32.2% | 17.7% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Antonio Senzatela | STL | 3.7 | 51.0% | 31.7% | 17.3% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Zach Logue | TEX | 3.7 | 49.7% | 30.5% | 16.4% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Spenser Watkins | CHC | 3.5 | 46.6% | 27.6% | 14.4% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Josh Winckowski | PIT | 3.5 | 45.9% | 27.1% | 14.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? |
HR PF |
Opp SP |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | NYY | No | 103 | Jose Berrios | 29.6% | +240 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Yes | 111 | Lucas Giolito | 25.4% | +295 |
| Rafael Devers | BOS | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 23.8% | +320 |
| Brandon Drury | SD | No | 96 | Anibal Sanchez | 22.7% | +340 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | No | 103 | Frankie Montas | 21.8% | +360 |
| Adolis Garcia | TEX | Yes | 95 | Zach Logue | 21.6% | +365 |
| Patrick Wisdom | CHC | No | 112 | Spenser Watkins | 21.5% | +365 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | TOR | No | 103 | Frankie Montas | 21.3% | +370 |
| Seiya Suzuki | CHC | No | 112 | Spenser Watkins | 20.9% | +380 |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 20.8% | +380 |
| Jonah Heim | TEX | Yes | 95 | Zach Logue | 20.6% | +385 |
| Juan Soto | SD | Yes | 95 | Anibal Sanchez | 20.4% | +390 |
| Willson Contreras | CHC | No | 112 | Spenser Watkins | 20.3% | +390 |
| Mookie Betts | LAD | No | 103 | Corbin Burnes | 20.2% | +395 |
| Joc Pederson | SF | Yes | 87 | Zac Gallen | 20.1% | +395 |
| Nolan Arenado | STL | No | 91 | Antonio Senzatela | 19.9% | +400 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | STL | No | 91 | Antonio Senzatela | 19.5% | +415 |
| Franmil Reyes | CHC | No | 112 | Spenser Watkins | 19.1% | +425 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | No | 106 | Lucas Giolito | 18.9% | +430 |
| Jeremy Pena | HOU | No | 106 | Lucas Giolito | 18.9% | +430 |
| MJ Melendez | KC | Yes | 92 | Luis Patino | 18.9% | +430 |
| William Contreras | ATL | No | 97 | Jacob deGrom | 18.8% | +430 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | No | 101 | Zach Logue | 18.7% | +435 |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | Yes | 97 | Max Fried | 18.6% | +440 |
| Anthony Santander | BAL | Yes | 110 | Adrian Sampson | 18.5% | +440 |
| Christopher Morel | CHC | No | 112 | Spenser Watkins | 18.5% | +440 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Yes | 95 | Josh Winckowski | 18.3% | +445 |
| Austin Riley | ATL | No | 97 | Jacob deGrom | 18.2% | +450 |
| Manny Machado | SD | No | 96 | Anibal Sanchez | 18.1% | +455 |
| Tommy Pham | BOS | No | 92 | JT Brubaker | 18.0% | +455 |
| Gleyber Torres | NYY | No | 103 | Jose Berrios | 17.9% | +460 |
| Rougned Odor | BAL | Yes | 110 | Adrian Sampson | 17.9% | +460 |
| Brandon Lowe | TB | Yes | 92 | Brad Keller | 17.8% | +460 |
| Anthony Rizzo | NYY | Yes | 109 | Jose Berrios | 17.8% | +465 |
| Andrew Vaughn | CHW | No | 106 | Luis Garcia | 17.7% | +465 |
| Pete Alonso | NYM | Yes | 97 | Max Fried | 17.4% | +475 |
| C.J. Cron | COL | No | 91 | Adam Wainwright | 17.4% | +475 |
| George Springer | TOR | No | 103 | Frankie Montas | 17.3% | +480 |
| Salvador Perez | KC | No | 94 | Luis Patino | 17.2% | +480 |
| Isaac Paredes | TB | No | 94 | Brad Keller | 17.2% | +480 |
| Ramon Urias | BAL | No | 112 | Adrian Sampson | 17.1% | +485 |
| Joey Gallo | LAD | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 16.7% | +500 |
| Trea Turner | LAD | No | 103 | Corbin Burnes | 16.7% | +500 |
| Wilmer Flores | SF | No | 90 | Zac Gallen | 16.7% | +500 |
| Randal Grichuk | COL | No | 91 | Adam Wainwright | 16.2% | +515 |
| Hunter Renfroe | MIL | Yes | 103 | Andrew Heaney | 16.2% | +515 |
| Josh Donaldson | NYY | No | 103 | Jose Berrios | 16.0% | +525 |
| Martin Maldonado | HOU | No | 106 | Lucas Giolito | 15.7% | +535 |
| Paul DeJong | STL | No | 91 | Antonio Senzatela | 15.7% | +540 |
| Charlie Blackmon | COL | Yes | 97 | Adam Wainwright | 15.6% | +540 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | Yes | 92 | Luis Patino | 15.5% | +545 |
| Bo Bichette | TOR | No | 103 | Frankie Montas | 15.4% | +550 |
| Josh Bell | SD | Yes | 95 | Anibal Sanchez | 15.3% | +555 |
| Ryan McMahon | COL | Yes | 97 | Adam Wainwright | 14.9% | +570 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 14.8% | +575 |
| Seth Brown | OAK | Yes | 101 | Dane Dunning | 14.8% | +575 |
| Trent Grisham | SD | Yes | 95 | Anibal Sanchez | 14.7% | +580 |
| Joey Meneses | WSH | No | 96 | Yu Darvish | 14.5% | +590 |
| Alex Bregman | HOU | No | 106 | Lucas Giolito | 14.4% | +595 |
| Eloy Jimenez | CHW | No | 106 | Luis Garcia | 14.4% | +595 |
| Christian Walker | ARI | No | 90 | Logan Webb | 14.4% | +595 |
| Austin Hays | BAL | No | 112 | Adrian Sampson | 14.3% | +600 |
| Jorge Mateo | BAL | No | 112 | Adrian Sampson | 14.3% | +600 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | No | 112 | Adrian Sampson | 14.3% | +600 |
| Ji-Man Choi | TB | Yes | 92 | Brad Keller | 14.3% | +600 |
| Nolan Gorman | STL | Yes | 97 | Antonio Senzatela | 14.3% | +600 |
| Randy Arozarena | TB | No | 94 | Brad Keller | 14.3% | +600 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr | SF | Yes | 87 | Zac Gallen | 14.2% | +600 |
| Keston Hiura | MIL | Yes | 103 | Andrew Heaney | 14.1% | +610 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | No | 101 | Zach Logue | 13.9% | +620 |
| Dan Vogelbach | NYM | No | 100 | Max Fried | 13.8% | +625 |
| Yoan Moncada | CHW | Yes | 111 | Luis Garcia | 13.7% | +630 |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | Yes | 111 | Lucas Giolito | 13.7% | +630 |
| Ian Happ | CHC | Yes | 110 | Spenser Watkins | 13.6% | +635 |
| Zach McKinstry | CHC | Yes | 110 | Spenser Watkins | 13.6% | +635 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | Yes | 95 | Josh Winckowski | 13.4% | +650 |
| Matt Chapman | TOR | No | 103 | Frankie Montas | 13.3% | +650 |
| Danny Jansen | TOR | No | 103 | Frankie Montas | 13.3% | +650 |
| Evan Longoria | SF | No | 90 | Zac Gallen | 13.1% | +660 |
| Brandon Belt | SF | Yes | 87 | Zac Gallen | 13.0% | +665 |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | Yes | 110 | Adrian Sampson | 12.8% | +680 |
| Luis Urias | MIL | Yes | 103 | Andrew Heaney | 12.6% | +695 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | Yes | 100 | Jacob deGrom | 12.6% | +695 |
| Sean Murphy | OAK | No | 95 | Dane Dunning | 12.5% | +705 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | No | 94 | Luis Patino | 12.3% | +710 |
| A.J. Pollock | CHW | No | 106 | Luis Garcia | 12.2% | +720 |
| Trey Mancini | HOU | No | 106 | Lucas Giolito | 12.2% | +720 |
| Jurickson Profar | SD | Yes | 95 | Anibal Sanchez | 12.0% | +730 |
| Chris Taylor | LAD | No | 103 | Corbin Burnes | 11.9% | +740 |
| Will Smith | LAD | No | 103 | Corbin Burnes | 11.9% | +740 |
| Nelson Cruz | WSH | No | 96 | Yu Darvish | 11.9% | +740 |
| Thairo Estrada | SF | No | 90 | Zac Gallen | 11.9% | +740 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | Yes | 100 | Jacob deGrom | 11.8% | +745 |
| Willy Adames | MIL | Yes | 103 | Andrew Heaney | 11.8% | +745 |
| Tyrone Taylor | MIL | Yes | 103 | Andrew Heaney | 11.8% | +745 |
| Ketel Marte | ARI | Yes | 87 | Logan Webb | 11.8% | +750 |
| Marcus Semien | TEX | Yes | 95 | Zach Logue | 11.8% | +750 |
| J.D. Martinez | BOS | No | 92 | JT Brubaker | 11.5% | +775 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | No | 106 | Luis Garcia | 11.4% | +775 |
| Dansby Swanson | ATL | No | 97 | Jacob deGrom | 11.3% | +785 |
| Adley Rutschman | BAL | Yes | 110 | Adrian Sampson | 11.2% | +790 |
| Jose Trevino | NYY | No | 103 | Jose Berrios | 11.2% | +795 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | SF | Yes | 87 | Zac Gallen | 11.1% | +800 |
| Andrew McCutchen | MIL | Yes | 103 | Andrew Heaney | 11.0% | +805 |
| Brian Serven | COL | No | 91 | Adam Wainwright | 10.7% | +835 |
| Luis Robert | CHW | No | 106 | Luis Garcia | 10.7% | +835 |
| Joey Bart | SF | No | 90 | Zac Gallen | 10.6% | +845 |
| Luke Voit | WSH | No | 96 | Yu Darvish | 10.5% | +855 |
| Eddie Rosario | ATL | Yes | 100 | Jacob deGrom | 10.3% | +865 |
| Michael Brosseau | MIL | Yes | 103 | Andrew Heaney | 10.2% | +880 |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | No | 91 | Adam Wainwright | 10.0% | +900 |
| Cesar Hernandez | WSH | Yes | 95 | Yu Darvish | 9.9% | +910 |
| Ben Gamel | PIT | Yes | 95 | Josh Winckowski | 9.9% | +910 |
| Daulton Varsho | ARI | Yes | 87 | Logan Webb | 9.8% | +920 |
| DJ LeMahieu | NYY | No | 103 | Jose Berrios | 9.6% | +940 |
| Nick Pratto | KC | Yes | 92 | Luis Patino | 9.6% | +940 |
| Ezequiel Duran | TEX | Yes | 95 | Zach Logue | 9.5% | +950 |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | Yes | 97 | Antonio Senzatela | 9.3% | +975 |
| Emmanuel Rivera | ARI | No | 90 | Logan Webb | 9.2% | +985 |
| Eric Hosmer | BOS | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 9.1% | +995 |
| Alex Verdugo | BOS | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 9.1% | +995 |
| Josh Harrison | CHW | No | 106 | Luis Garcia | 9.1% | +1000 |
| Mark Canha | NYM | Yes | 97 | Max Fried | 8.9% | +1025 |
| Justin Turner | LAD | No | 103 | Corbin Burnes | 8.8% | +1030 |
| Enrique Hernandez | BOS | No | 92 | JT Brubaker | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Brendan Donovan | STL | Yes | 97 | Antonio Senzatela | 8.6% | +1070 |
| Victor Caratini | MIL | Yes | 103 | Andrew Heaney | 8.5% | +1070 |
| Alek Thomas | ARI | Yes | 87 | Logan Webb | 8.4% | +1085 |
| Travis d'Arnaud | ATL | No | 97 | Jacob deGrom | 8.4% | +1095 |
| Yandy Diaz | TB | No | 94 | Brad Keller | 8.1% | +1130 |
| Starling Marte | NYM | Yes | 97 | Max Fried | 8.1% | +1135 |
| Jose Iglesias | COL | No | 91 | Adam Wainwright | 7.9% | +1165 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | WSH | Yes | 95 | Yu Darvish | 7.6% | +1210 |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | Yes | 95 | Anibal Sanchez | 7.6% | +1210 |
| Ronald Acuna | ATL | No | 97 | Jacob deGrom | 7.6% | +1215 |
| Harold Ramirez | TB | No | 94 | Brad Keller | 7.4% | +1255 |
| Santiago Espinal | TOR | No | 103 | Frankie Montas | 7.2% | +1285 |
| Charlie Culberson | TEX | Yes | 95 | Zach Logue | 7.1% | +1305 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | ARI | Yes | 87 | Logan Webb | 7.0% | +1325 |
| Andrew Benintendi | NYY | Yes | 109 | Jose Berrios | 6.9% | +1355 |
| Raimel Tapia | TOR | Yes | 109 | Frankie Montas | 6.9% | +1355 |
| Tucupita Marcano | PIT | Yes | 95 | Josh Winckowski | 6.8% | +1365 |
| Rodolfo Castro | PIT | Yes | 95 | Josh Winckowski | 6.8% | +1365 |
| Vaughn Grissom | ATL | No | 97 | Jacob deGrom | 6.8% | +1365 |
| Sheldon Neuse | OAK | No | 95 | Dane Dunning | 6.7% | +1395 |
