MLB Betting Guide: Friday 8/19/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Over 7.5 (-112): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Phillies Moneyline (-120): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
On the mound in this matchup for the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies clash are righties Chris Bassitt (10-7, 3.27 ERA, 3.12 expected ERA) and Aaron Nola (8-9, 3.07 ERA, 2.76 expected ERA), respectively.
The Mets do boast an active-roster wRC+ of 128 (a league-best) against right-handed pitching, and the Phillies are at a 97 -- but with a .405 slugging percentage that ranks them 14th in the Majors.
Yes, the pitching is good, but the hitting isn't anything to write off, either, and that's leading to an over recommendation from our model.
This game is 59.9% likely to go over that total, leading to an expected return of 13.3%.
Our model also has a lean on the Phillies to get the win outright, which they are expected to do with a 54.7% probability.
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6.5 (-106): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Rays -1.5 (+110): 1-Star Rating out of 5
We're probably not initially inclined to target an over in a game with two pitchers with ERAs of sub-3.30, but that's what we're doing here.
The total is just 6.5 runs, and both pitchers have ERAs better than expected.
For the Kansas City Royals, righty Brady Singer (6-4, 3.29 ERA, 3.82 expected ERA) will need to stifle the Tampa Bay Rays' bats. The Rays boast a 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and have a league-average .399 slugging percentage in that split, as well. They are sixth in strikeout rate (23.5%), but Singer is carrying just a 25.5% strikeout rate of his own. Also, the Rays' bullpen holds a 109 xFIP-.
On the flip side, Shane McClanahan (11-5, 2.28 ERA, 2.53 expected ERA) will challenge the Royals, who are sitting at a 96 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Though the pitchers are definitely dealing well, but our model likes this game to go over with a 61.7% probability.
St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 8.5 (-115): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Cardinals -1.5 (-106): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Yet another over here comes on the strength of exploitable pitching -- particularly on one side.
The St. Louis Cardinals are sending out Miles Mikolas (9-9, 3.44 ERA, 3.93 expected ERA) to thwart a Arizona Diamondbacks team that has a 95 wRC+ against righties. They're also outside the top 20 in slugging percentage and wOBA in that split.
Tommy Henry (2-1, 4.15 ERA, 4.22 expected ERA) has a 5.68 xFIP through 17.1 innings thrown in the bigs this season. Henry does have a solid-enough 25.9% called-strike-plus-whiff rate but has also allowed a 44.4% fly-ball rate and a 36.4% hard-hit rate. In the minors this season, he had a 21.9% strikeout rate and generated a 5.16 xFIP.
The Cardinals' active roster has a league-best (by far) wRC+ of 145 against left-handed pitching that is tied to a .212 ISO and a .502 slugging percentage.
