MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Tuesday 9/6/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
MILChad
Kuhl
11.06.2359.1%43.1%28.8%17.7%10.1%
NYMMitch
Keller
8.54.9838.1%23.5%13.1%6.7%3.1%
COLBrandon
Woodruff
11.04.7734.4%20.5%11.0%5.4%2.4%
LAAEduardo
Rodriguez
8.54.6031.4%18.2%9.5%4.5%2.0%
HOUGlenn
Otto
7.54.5931.3%18.1%9.4%4.5%1.9%
STLPaolo
Espino
7.54.5129.9%17.0%8.7%4.1%1.7%
ATLCole
Irvin
7.54.4028.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
TORKyle
Bradish
8.54.3226.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
CLEKris
Bubic
7.54.3126.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
BALMitch
White
8.54.1824.4%13.0%6.3%2.7%1.1%
PHIJesus
Luzardo
7.04.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
CHCJustin
Dunn
7.54.1423.7%12.6%6.0%2.6%1.0%
NYYJoe
Ryan
7.04.0221.8%11.3%5.2%2.2%0.8%
DETMike
Mayers
8.53.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
SDMerrill
Kelly
7.03.8919.8%10.0%4.5%1.8%0.7%
TBRich
Hill
7.03.8318.9%9.4%4.2%1.7%0.6%
SEAJohnny
Cueto
7.03.7918.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
PITTaijuan
Walker
8.53.5214.5%6.7%2.8%1.0%0.3%
CINWade
Miley
7.53.3612.4%5.5%2.2%0.8%0.2%
CHWLogan
Gilbert
7.03.2110.7%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%
KCShane
Bieber
7.53.1910.4%4.4%1.7%0.6%0.2%
BOSDrew
Rasmussen
7.03.1710.2%4.3%1.6%0.5%0.2%
ARIJoe
Musgrove
7.03.119.5%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
OAKKyle
Wright
7.53.109.4%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
WSHJose
Quintana
7.52.998.3%3.3%1.2%0.4%0.1%
MINGerrit
Cole
7.02.988.2%3.3%1.1%0.4%0.1%
TEXFramber
Valdez
7.52.917.5%2.9%1.0%0.3%0.1%
MIAAaron
Nola
7.02.857.0%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Aaron
Nola
MIA8.196.0%90.4%81.5%69.5%55.7%41.7%29.2%
Gerrit
Cole
MIN7.794.7%88.0%77.7%64.5%50.0%36.1%24.3%
Joe
Musgrove
ARI6.891.0%81.2%67.8%52.6%37.7%25.0%15.4%
Brandon
Woodruff
COL6.689.7%79.1%65.0%49.4%34.6%22.4%13.4%
Framber
Valdez
TEX6.387.1%74.8%59.5%43.5%29.3%18.1%10.3%
Shane
Bieber
KC6.286.3%73.7%58.1%42.1%28.0%17.1%9.6%
Tyler
Anderson
SF5.680.4%65.0%48.0%32.2%19.7%11.0%5.6%
Kyle
Wright
OAK5.579.3%63.5%46.2%30.6%18.4%10.1%5.1%
Logan
Gilbert
CHW5.378.0%61.7%44.3%28.9%17.1%9.3%4.6%
Drew
Rasmussen
BOS5.276.7%60.1%42.6%27.4%16.0%8.5%4.1%
Joe
Ryan
NYY5.276.3%59.6%42.1%26.9%15.6%8.3%4.0%
Merrill
Kelly
SD4.972.5%54.7%37.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
Jesus
Luzardo
PHI4.972.4%54.5%37.0%22.6%12.5%6.3%2.9%
Jose
Quintana
WSH4.971.8%53.8%36.3%22.0%12.1%6.1%2.8%
Johnny
Cueto
SEA4.869.8%51.5%34.0%20.2%10.9%5.3%2.4%
Eduardo
Rodriguez
LAA4.667.8%49.1%31.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
Kyle
Bradish
TOR4.666.6%47.7%30.6%17.5%9.1%4.3%1.8%
Taijuan
Walker
PIT4.463.7%44.5%27.7%15.4%7.7%3.5%1.4%
Cole
Irvin
ATL4.260.8%41.4%25.0%13.5%6.5%2.9%1.1%
Mitch
White
BAL4.259.9%40.4%24.2%12.9%6.2%2.7%1.1%
Mitch
Keller
NYM4.057.2%37.7%22.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
Rich
Hill
TB4.056.7%37.1%21.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
Glenn
Otto
HOU3.955.1%35.6%20.2%10.3%4.7%1.9%0.7%
Kris
Bubic
CLE3.954.1%34.6%19.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
Justin
Dunn
CHC3.953.9%34.4%19.3%9.7%4.3%1.7%0.6%
Chad
Kuhl
MIL3.852.9%33.4%18.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
Mike
Mayers
DET3.547.0%28.0%14.6%6.8%2.8%1.0%0.4%
Paolo
Espino
STL3.443.9%25.4%12.8%5.7%2.3%0.8%0.3%
Wei-Chieh
Huang
LAD3.443.3%24.8%12.4%5.5%2.2%0.8%0.2%
Wade
Miley
CIN3.240.4%22.5%10.9%4.6%1.8%0.6%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo112Kyle
Bradish
31.2%+220
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Joe
Ryan
30.8%+225
Evan
Longoria
SFYes107Tyler
Anderson
27.7%+260
C.J.
Cron
COLNo108Brandon
Woodruff
27.2%+270
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo112Kyle
Bradish
26.9%+270
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo91Paolo
Espino
25.2%+295
George
Springer
TORNo112Kyle
Bradish
24.6%+305
Matt
Chapman
TORNo112Kyle
Bradish
24.6%+305
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Justin
Dunn
24.3%+310
Willy
Adames
MILNo108Chad
Kuhl
24.1%+315
Mike
Trout
LAAYes103Eduardo
Rodriguez
23.9%+320
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Mitch
White
23.7%+320
Rhys
Hoskins
PHIYes110Jesus
Luzardo
23.4%+330
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes92Kris
Bubic
22.6%+345
Austin
Riley
ATLYes94Cole
Irvin
22.4%+345
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo108Chad
Kuhl
22.0%+355
Keston
Hiura
MILNo108Chad
Kuhl
22.0%+355
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLYes94Cole
Irvin
21.9%+355
Mookie
Betts
LADNo107Wei-Chieh
Huang
21.9%+355
Danny
Jansen
TORNo112Kyle
Bradish
21.5%+365
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo91Paolo
Espino
21.4%+370
Will
Smith
LADNo107Wei-Chieh
Huang
21.3%+370
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99Johnny
Cueto
21.2%+370
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Justin
Dunn
20.8%+380
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo112Mitch
White
20.3%+390
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes109Chad
Kuhl
20.3%+395
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes97Paolo
Espino
20.2%+395
Mitch
Haniger
SEANo99Johnny
Cueto
19.6%+410
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo92Mitch
Keller
19.1%+425
Carlos
Correa
MINNo103Gerrit
Cole
19.1%+425
Kolten
Wong
MILYes109Chad
Kuhl
19.0%+425
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes92Drew
Rasmussen
18.9%+430
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101Glenn
Otto
18.8%+430
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Joe
Ryan
18.5%+440
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes96Logan
Gilbert
18.4%+445
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes95Joe
Musgrove
18.3%+445
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Taijuan
Walker
18.3%+445
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes102Wei-Chieh
Huang
18.1%+450
Max
Muncy
LADYes102Wei-Chieh
Huang
18.1%+450
Joey
Gallo
LADYes102Wei-Chieh
Huang
18.1%+450
Tyler
O'Neill
STLNo91Paolo
Espino
17.9%+460
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96Johnny
Cueto
17.8%+460
Kyle
Schwarber
PHINo106Jesus
Luzardo
17.8%+460
Justin
Turner
LADNo107Wei-Chieh
Huang
17.8%+460
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes95Taijuan
Walker
17.7%+465
Max
Stassi
LAAYes103Eduardo
Rodriguez
17.6%+470
Taylor
Ward
LAAYes103Eduardo
Rodriguez
17.6%+470
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes101Framber
Valdez
17.3%+480
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFNo102Tyler
Anderson
17.3%+480
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96Justin
Dunn
17.3%+480
Trea
Turner
LADNo107Wei-Chieh
Huang
17.2%+480
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Glenn
Otto
17.0%+485
Brandon
Drury
SDNo96Merrill
Kelly
17.0%+490
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Shane
Bieber
17.0%+490
Lewis
Brinson
SFYes107Tyler
Anderson
16.7%+500
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes96Johnny
Cueto
16.7%+500
Rougned
Odor
BALYes110Mitch
White
16.5%+505
Bo
Bichette
TORNo112Kyle
Bradish
16.5%+505
Christian
Yelich
MILYes109Chad
Kuhl
16.4%+510
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLYes94Cole
Irvin
16.3%+510
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo94Drew
Rasmussen
16.1%+520
Trevor
Story
BOSNo94Drew
Rasmussen
16.1%+520
Shea
Langeliers
OAKNo94Kyle
Wright
16.1%+520
Ramon
Urias
BALNo112Mitch
White
15.8%+535
Christian
Walker
ARINo96Joe
Musgrove
15.8%+535
J.T.
Realmuto
PHIYes110Jesus
Luzardo
15.6%+540
Bryce
Harper
PHINo106Jesus
Luzardo
15.6%+540
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Glenn
Otto
15.6%+545
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Joe
Ryan
15.4%+550
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Merrill
Kelly
15.1%+560
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Glenn
Otto
15.1%+560
Ronald
Acuna
ATLYes94Cole
Irvin
15.1%+565
Matt
Olson
ATLNo92Cole
Irvin
14.9%+570
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo99Logan
Gilbert
14.9%+570
Luis
Robert
CHWNo99Logan
Gilbert
14.9%+570
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo99Logan
Gilbert
14.9%+570
Brian
Anderson
MIANo110Aaron
Nola
14.8%+575
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo103Justin
Dunn
14.7%+580
Josh
Bell
SDYes95Merrill
Kelly
14.7%+580
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes95Mitch
Keller
14.7%+580
Michael
Chavis
PITNo92Taijuan
Walker
14.6%+585
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes101Framber
Valdez
14.6%+585
Thairo
Estrada
SFYes107Tyler
Anderson
14.6%+585
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo99Logan
Gilbert
14.2%+600
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes102Wei-Chieh
Huang
14.2%+605
Jonathan
India
CINYes103Wade
Miley
14.1%+610
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo103Justin
Dunn
14.0%+610
Joey
Meneses
WSHYes91Jose
Quintana
14.0%+615
Juan
Soto
SDYes95Merrill
Kelly
14.0%+615
Starling
Marte
NYMNo92Mitch
Keller
14.0%+615
David
Peralta
TBNo92Rich
Hill
13.9%+620
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo108Brandon
Woodruff
13.9%+620
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes101Framber
Valdez
13.9%+620
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Glenn
Otto
13.8%+625
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Glenn
Otto
13.8%+625
J.D.
Davis
SFYes107Tyler
Anderson
13.8%+625
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes110Mitch
White
13.6%+635
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes97Paolo
Espino
13.6%+635
Mike
Toglia
COLYes109Brandon
Woodruff
13.5%+640
Shohei
Ohtani
LAANo108Eduardo
Rodriguez
13.4%+645
Harold
Castro
DETYes108Mike
Mayers
13.4%+645
Willi
Castro
DETYes108Mike
Mayers
13.4%+645
Salvador
Perez
KCNo92Shane
Bieber
13.4%+645
Corey
Seager
TEXNo102Framber
Valdez
13.4%+645
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Taijuan
Walker
13.4%+650
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes95Taijuan
Walker
13.4%+650
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo103Joe
Ryan
13.3%+650
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo103Mike
Mayers
13.3%+650
Elias
Diaz
COLNo108Brandon
Woodruff
13.1%+660
Dansby
Swanson
ATLYes94Cole
Irvin
13.1%+665
Randy
Arozarena
TBYes94Rich
Hill
13.1%+665
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes107Tyler
Anderson
13.0%+670
Austin
Slater
SFYes107Tyler
Anderson
13.0%+670
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes96Johnny
Cueto
12.8%+680
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes96Logan
Gilbert
12.8%+680
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes109Brandon
Woodruff
12.7%+685
Luke
Voit
WSHYes91Jose
Quintana
12.7%+685
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes95Mitch
Keller
12.7%+685
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes108Mike
Mayers
12.6%+690
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes103Eduardo
Rodriguez
12.6%+695
Jo
Adell
LAAYes103Eduardo
Rodriguez
12.6%+695
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo94Drew
Rasmussen
12.3%+710
Chris
Taylor
LADNo107Wei-Chieh
Huang
12.3%+715
Jake
Fraley
CINNo96Wade
Miley
12.1%+725
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes91Jose
Quintana
12.0%+730
Austin
Hays
BALNo112Mitch
White
12.0%+735
Jace
Peterson
MILYes109Chad
Kuhl
12.0%+735
Gio
Urshela
MINNo103Gerrit
Cole
11.9%+740
Nick
Pratto
KCYes92Shane
Bieber
11.7%+755
Yandy
Diaz
TBYes94Rich
Hill
11.6%+760
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo108Brandon
Woodruff
11.6%+760
Elvis
Andrus
CHWNo99Logan
Gilbert
11.5%+770
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo99Johnny
Cueto
11.5%+770
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes95Mitch
Keller
11.3%+785
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes95Joe
Musgrove
11.3%+785
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo112Mitch
White
11.2%+795
Javier
Baez
DETNo103Mike
Mayers
11.2%+795
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes109Brandon
Woodruff
11.2%+795
Max
Kepler
MINYes109Gerrit
Cole
11.2%+795
Jake
Cave
MINYes109Gerrit
Cole
11.2%+795
Riley
Greene
DETYes108Mike
Mayers
11.1%+805
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes94Rich
Hill
10.9%+815
Cal
Mitchell
PITYes95Taijuan
Walker
10.6%+840
Michael
Harris
II
ATLNo92Cole
Irvin
10.6%+845
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes110Mitch
White
10.4%+860
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo103Gerrit
Cole
10.4%+860
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo103Justin
Dunn
10.4%+860
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo112Kyle
Bradish
10.4%+865
Seth
Brown
OAKYes92Kyle
Wright
10.3%+870
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo101Glenn
Otto
10.2%+880
Spencer
Steer
CINYes103Wade
Miley
10.2%+880
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo110Aaron
Nola
10.2%+880
Tommy
Edman
STLYes97Paolo
Espino
10.1%+895
Ty
France
SEANo99Johnny
Cueto
10.0%+895
Amed
Rosario
CLEYes92Kris
Bubic
10.0%+900
Andres
Gimenez
CLENo92Kris
Bubic
10.0%+900
Matt
Vierling
PHIYes110Jesus
Luzardo
10.0%+905
Luis
Garcia
WSHYes91Jose
Quintana
9.9%+910
J.J.
Matijevic
HOUYes102Glenn
Otto
9.7%+925
Jose
Miranda
MINNo103Gerrit
Cole
9.6%+940
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo102Framber
Valdez
9.6%+940
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSNo94Drew
Rasmussen
9.6%+945
Dermis
Garcia
OAKNo94Kyle
Wright
9.6%+945
Raimel
Tapia
TORYes110Kyle
Bradish
9.6%+945
Kerry
Carpenter
DETYes108Mike
Mayers
9.4%+960
Jose
Siri
TBYes94Rich
Hill
9.4%+960
Kyle
Farmer
CINYes103Wade
Miley
9.4%+965
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYes103Eduardo
Rodriguez
9.4%+965
Josh
Naylor
CLENo92Kris
Bubic
9.4%+965
Peyton
Burdick
MIANo110Aaron
Nola
9.4%+965
Rafael
Ortega
CHCYes96Justin
Dunn
9.2%+985
Sean
Bouchard
COLNo108Brandon
Woodruff
9.2%+985
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes95Merrill
Kelly
9.1%+995
TJ
Friedl
CINNo96Wade
Miley
9.1%+995
Stephen
Vogt
OAKYes92Kyle
Wright
8.9%+1025
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo94Drew
Rasmussen
8.9%+1025
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo92Shane
Bieber
8.7%+1050
Yu
Chang
TBYes94Rich
Hill
8.6%+1055
Vaughn
Grissom
ATLYes94Cole
Irvin
8.6%+1055
Nick
Gordon
MINYes109Gerrit
Cole
8.6%+1060
Oswaldo
Cabrera
NYYYes109Joe
Ryan
8.6%+1060
Corey
Dickerson
STLYes97Paolo
Espino
8.6%+1070
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLEYes92Kris
Bubic
8.5%+1080
Yasmani
Grandal
CHWYes96Logan
Gilbert
8.5%+1080
Keibert
Ruiz
WSHYes91Jose
Quintana
8.4%+1090
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes95Mitch
Keller
8.4%+1090
Trent
Grisham
SDYes95Merrill
Kelly
8.4%+1090
Jake
McCarthy
ARIYes95Joe
Musgrove
8.4%+1090
Carson
Kelly
ARINo96Joe
Musgrove
8.3%+1105
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Shane
Bieber
8.1%+1125
Mark
Canha
NYMNo92Mitch
Keller
8.0%+1155
Omar
Narvaez
MILYes109Chad
Kuhl
7.8%+1190
Myles
Straw
CLEYes92Kris
Bubic
7.7%+1200
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes95Joe
Musgrove
7.6%+1210
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo103Joe
Ryan
7.2%+1285
Jean
Segura
PHIYes110Jesus
Luzardo
7.2%+1290
Brandon
Marsh
PHINo106Jesus
Luzardo
7.1%+1300
Harold
Ramirez
TBYes94Rich
Hill
7.0%+1320
Brendan
Donovan
STLYes97Paolo
Espino
7.0%+1335
Kole
Calhoun
TEXNo102Framber
Valdez
6.9%+1350
Ben
Gamel
PITYes95Taijuan
Walker
6.8%+1365
Gilberto
Celestino
MINNo103Gerrit
Cole
6.4%+1470

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