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Pitchers
Shohei Ohtani ($10,400)
Despite a 5.0% salary increase, Ohtani still rates as Saturday's top ranked pitcher with a 37.4 FanDuel point projection and today's second best value rating at 3.6 in a rematch against a Houston Astros' lineup with a .317 weighted on-base average and a 19.1% K-rate in their last 615 plate appearances.
In his previous ten starts, the 28-year old right-hander has almost matched his seasonal expected numbers (2.70 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating in 136.0 innings) with a 2.93 xFIP, an impressive 31.7% K-rate, and 40 or more FanDuel points in 70% of these appearances including an average of 50.5 versus Houston.
With an outstanding 15.5% swinging strike rate during this time, Ohtani's slate-high 7.5 strikeout prediction will hinge on his unique ability to induce punch-outs mostly against four Houston batters with K-rates between 21.4% and 36.7% and contact percentages ranging from 64.9% to 77.8%.
Kevin Gausman ($10,300)
At his second highest salary point in the past two months, Gausman stands as numberFire's fourth rated pitcher with a 33.1 fantasy expectation with a 3.21 value rating against a Texas Rangers' team with a 25.3% K-rate and a 73.2% contact rate.
Since July 2nd, Toronto's veteran has performed at an ace level in his last 61.0 innings, recording a 2.81 xFIP, a 29.3% K-rate, an eye-popping 14.4% swinging strike rate, and six or more strikeouts in 72% of his last 11 starts.
In a matchup versus six Ranger's hitters with K-rates between 24.1% to 30.0%, Gausman's projection contains Saturday's third highest strikeout expectation at 6.2 in 5.6 projected innings.
Max Fried ($10,000)
After a 2.9% salary decline, Atlanta's reliable left-hander rates second overall with a 34.9 FanDuel projection and third in value with a 3.49 rating versus a Seattle Mariners' lineup with an unimposing .299 weighted on-base average and a 29.9% hard hit rate.
In his most recent 11 appearances, Fried has recorded premier production with a 3.27 xFIP in 69.0 innings while allowing two or less earned runs in 81% of his starts.
With his amazing form, the 28-year old offers a unique combination of a high floor with 37 or more FanDuel points in 57% of his 26 starts and ceiling with Saturday's fourth best strikeout projection at 6.0 in 5.97 innings.
Stacks
In a mouth-watering opportunity versus Jose Urena, the Diamondbacks stand as Saturday's top ranked offense with a 6.0 expected run total.
Through 33.0 innings at Coors Field, the veteran right-hander has been downright awful at home, allowing an overall dreadful .378 weighted on-base average and a 5.82 xFIP to left-handed batters in high attitude.
With seven expected batters hitting from the left side, ideal Arizona stacks play right into Urena's main weakness with Daulton Varsho (10.3% barrel rate, .409 expected slugging), Jake McCarthy (.266 expected average, .318 expected wOBA), and Ketel Marte (41.3% hard hit percentage) rating best while Christian Walker (12.6% barrel rate, .506 expected slugging) and Emmanuel Rivera (10.6% barrel rate, .428 expected slugging) offer the most overall power.
After yesterday's explosive 13-run outburst, the Rockies should continue their offensive momentum versus a declining Madison Bumgarner with a below-average 4.78 xFIP and a career-worst 2.29 strikeout-to-walk ratio (16.4% K-rate, 7.2% walk percentage).
To best capture Colorado's success versus southpaws (.343 wOBA, 82.8% contact rate), the Rockies' batters with the best batted ball form include C.J. Cron (10.5% barrel rate, .434 expected slugging), Mike Toglia (11.5% barrel rate, .480 expected slugging), Alan Trejo (7% barrel rate, .436 expected slugging), Brendan Rodgers (7.3% barrel rate, .262 expected average), Randal Grichuk (43.4% hard hit rate), Elehuris Montero (10.8% barrel rate), and Yonathan Daza (.292 expected average).
Outside of Coors Field, the Brewers also have an advantageous matchup with a 5.6 expected run total against a well-below average right-hander in Chase Anderson.
Since 2021 in his last 17 appearances including 11 starts, the 34-year old veteran has accounted for little success, recording a cumulative 5.63 XFIP, a 17.2% K-rate, a 10.9% walk percentage, and an opposing 9.5% barrel rate.
With a slight lean towards right-handed batters giving him the most trouble (.446 wOBA in 21.1 innings during 2021, career .354 wOBA), Willy Adames (12.7% barrel rate, .444 expected slugging), Hunter Renfroe (11.9% barrel rate, .452 expected slugging), and Andrew McCutchen (.406 expected slugging, 7.8% barrel rate) profile best while Christian Yelich (9% barrel rate, .349 expected wOBA) and Rowdy Tellez (12.9% barrel rate, .493 expected slugging) add pop from the left.