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Pitchers
Shane Bieber ($11,200)
After a 2.7% increase to his highest salary point this season, Bieber ranks fourth among Sunday's 22 pitchers with a 34.8 FanDuel points projection and a 3.11 value rating versus a Minnesota Twins' team with a .312 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 21.9% K-rate.
In his last 11 starts, the 27-year old has really hit his stride, accounting for a sparking 2.71 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP), a 14.4% swinging strike rate, and 46 or more FanDuel points in 72% of his appearances.
With Sunday's third highest strikeout prediction at 6.9, Bieber should have the edge against seven Twins' batters with K-rates between 20.1% and 34.4% and contact rates ranging from 67.7% to 77.3%.
Aaron Nola ($11,000)
At his highest salary point after a 11-strikeout performance, Philadelphia's right-hander will take the mound at home against a Washington Nationals' lineup with a .321 wOBA and a 24.8% K-rate.
Since August 7th despite recording a misleading 3.72 Earned Run Average, Nola has completely over-performed this metric, producing a 2.41 xFIP and eight or more strikeouts in 66% of his starts.
Even with a recent 2.8% salary jump, Philadelphia's ace still offers today's best combination of value and ceiling with several leading expected marks including Sunday's top fantasy and strikeout projections at 44.6 and 8.46 respectively.
Brandon Woodruff ($10,200)
In his third opportunity facing a Cincinnati Reds' unit with an advantageous .280 wOBA and a 29.3% K-rate, Woodruff rates second best at his position with a 37.1 FanDuel point expectation and a 3.64 value rating.
Through 121.1 innings this season, the 29-year old has efficient despite going six innings ore more in 45% of his starts, recording a 13.6% swinging strike rate and a 28.3% K-rate.
With today's second best strikeout prediction at 7.27, Woodruff has plenty of ceiling when also analyzing his 18 punch-outs in ten previous innings against Cincinnati this season.
Brady Singer ($9,200)
After an eye-popping 10.2% salary decline, Singer is a viable value option in a great matchup versus a Detroit Tigers' squad with a weak .253 wOBA and a 25.1% K-rate in their last 320 plate appearances.
Considering his recent form including a 3.58 xFIP and six or more strikeouts in four of his past seven starts, Kansas City's 26-year old righty has underrated value with a 3.25 rating and a 29.9 fantasy projection.
Stacks
Despite yesterday's underwhelming one-run output at Coors Field, the Diamondbacks contain Sunday's top run total at 6.0 against Ryan Feltner.
In 37.1 career innings in Colorado, the Rockies' right-hander has not pitched well at home, accounting for a 4.93 xFIP, a 2.07 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a 17.0% home-run to fly-ball percentage.
With most of his troubles occurring versus left-handed bats (5.03 xFIP at Coors Field), Corbin Carroll (.481 expected slugging, 8% barrel rate), Daulton Varsho (.411 expected slugging, 10.5% barrel rate), Jake McCarthy (.268 expected average, .321 expected wOBA), and Josh Rojas (37.2% hard hit rate) profile best while Christian Walker (.503 expected slugging, 12.6% barrel rate) and Emmanuel Rivera (.425 expected slugging, 10.5%) are great secondary options.
In a matchup versus Justin Dunn, the Brewers rank as a top stack with a 5.2 run total against a wild right-hander with a concerning 5.96 career xFIP, a 14.7% walk percentage, and massive struggles with left-handed bats (6.60 xFIP, 18.3% home-run to fly-ball ratio).
To best attack these main weaknesses, Christian Yelich (.349 expected wOBA, .425 expected slugging), Rowdy Tellez (12.9% barrel rate, .355 expected wOBA), Jace Peterson (7.2% barrel rate), and Garrett Mitchell (16.7% barrel rate) make an ideal stack while Andrew McCutchen (8% barrel rate, .323 expected wOBA) and Willy Adames (12.9% barrel rate, .446 expected slugging) can also be mixed in.
Tucker Davidson will make his ninth start this season versus a Houston Astros with an underrated 5.1 run total at home.
Since May 17th, the 26-year old left-hander has been awful through eight starts, recording a dreadful 5.75 xFIP, a 13.3% K-rate, and a 15.6% walk percentage
Due to his struggles against right-handed bats (opposing .351 wOBA, 5.70 xFIP), Astros' stacks should include Jose Altuve (.350 expected wOBA, .436 expected slugging), Jeremy Pena (8.9% barrel rate), Alex Bregman (.353 expected wOBA, .419 expected slugging), and Trey Mancini (9.7% barrel rate, .330 expected wOBA) as top targets while Yordan Alvarez (19.7% barrel rate, .453 expected wOBA) and Kyle Tucker (.484 expected slugging, .358 expected wOBA) are still in play despite hitting from the left side.