MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Tuesday 9/20/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SFKyle
Freeland
11.55.8452.8%36.8%23.4%13.7%7.3%
COLJohn
Brebbia
11.55.6649.8%33.9%21.1%12.0%6.3%
LADZach
Davies
9.55.6249.2%33.3%20.6%11.6%6.0%
ATLPatrick
Corbin
8.55.3744.9%29.4%17.5%9.5%4.7%
LADDrey
Jameson
8.55.3444.3%28.9%17.1%9.3%4.6%
NYYLuis
Ortiz
8.05.0940.0%25.1%14.3%7.4%3.5%
BALJoey
Wentz
8.54.8936.5%22.2%12.2%6.1%2.8%
MINZack
Greinke
9.04.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
LAACole
Ragans
8.54.4528.9%16.3%8.3%3.8%1.6%
TORKyle
Gibson
8.54.4128.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
BOSNick
Lodolo
8.54.3727.5%15.3%7.6%3.5%1.4%
KCDylan
Bundy
9.04.2926.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
CINBrayan
Bello
8.54.1323.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
CHWAaron
Civale
7.54.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
PHIRoss
Stripling
8.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
SEAJP
Sears
7.04.0822.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
TEXPatrick
Sandoval
8.54.0522.3%11.6%5.4%2.3%0.9%
SDAdam
Wainwright
8.04.0422.1%11.5%5.4%2.3%0.9%
MILCarlos
Carrasco
8.04.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
NYMAaron
Ashby
8.04.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
STLMike
Clevinger
8.03.9620.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
ARIMichael
Grove
9.53.8819.6%9.9%4.4%1.8%0.7%
MIAAdrian
Sampson
7.03.8018.4%9.1%4.0%1.6%0.6%
DETAustin
Voth
8.53.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
TBCristian
Javier
6.53.5114.4%6.6%2.7%1.0%0.3%
CLEDylan
Cease
7.53.4012.9%5.8%2.3%0.8%0.3%
CHCPablo
Lopez
7.03.2010.5%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%
ARITyler
Anderson
8.53.1610.1%4.2%1.6%0.5%0.2%
WSHCharlie
Morton
8.53.139.8%4.0%1.5%0.5%0.2%
HOUShane
McClanahan
6.52.998.3%3.3%1.2%0.4%0.1%
OAKLuis
Castillo
7.02.927.6%3.0%1.0%0.3%0.1%
PITNestor
Cortes
8.02.917.5%2.9%1.0%0.3%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Charlie
Morton
WSH7.694.5%87.6%77.1%63.8%49.3%35.5%23.7%
Dylan
Cease
CLE7.594.0%86.6%75.6%61.9%47.2%33.5%22.1%
Shane
McClanahan
HOU7.192.1%83.2%70.6%55.8%40.9%27.7%17.5%
Cristian
Javier
TB7.091.6%82.3%69.4%54.4%39.5%26.6%16.5%
Nick
Lodolo
BOS6.588.9%77.7%63.2%47.5%32.9%21.0%12.3%
Luis
Castillo
OAK6.588.5%77.2%62.5%46.7%32.1%20.4%11.9%
Nestor
Cortes
PIT6.085.1%71.8%55.8%39.7%25.9%15.5%8.5%
Carlos
Carrasco
MIL5.883.4%69.3%52.8%36.8%23.4%13.7%7.3%
Patrick
Sandoval
TEX5.681.0%65.9%49.0%33.1%20.4%11.5%6.0%
Tyler
Anderson
ARI5.073.2%55.6%38.1%23.5%13.1%6.7%3.1%
Pablo
Lopez
CHC5.073.1%55.4%37.9%23.3%13.0%6.6%3.1%
Adam
Wainwright
SD4.972.4%54.5%37.0%22.6%12.5%6.3%2.9%
Kyle
Gibson
TOR4.769.3%50.9%33.5%19.8%10.6%5.1%2.3%
Drey
Jameson
LAD4.565.3%46.2%29.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
Brayan
Bello
CIN4.363.0%43.7%27.0%14.9%7.4%3.3%1.4%
Luis
Ortiz
NYY4.363.0%43.7%27.0%14.9%7.4%3.3%1.4%
Mike
Clevinger
STL4.362.8%43.5%26.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
Kyle
Freeland
SF4.362.5%43.1%26.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
Sean
Hjelle
COL4.361.7%42.4%25.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
Ross
Stripling
PHI4.260.3%40.8%24.5%13.1%6.3%2.8%1.1%
Aaron
Civale
CHW4.259.7%40.2%24.0%12.8%6.1%2.7%1.0%
Patrick
Corbin
ATL4.159.0%39.5%23.4%12.4%5.9%2.5%1.0%
Michael
Grove
ARI3.955.1%35.6%20.2%10.3%4.7%1.9%0.7%
Austin
Voth
DET3.954.9%35.4%20.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
Dylan
Bundy
KC3.751.4%32.1%17.6%8.5%3.7%1.5%0.5%
Adrian
Sampson
MIA3.751.2%31.9%17.4%8.4%3.7%1.4%0.5%
Zach
Davies
LAD3.647.6%28.6%15.0%7.0%2.9%1.1%0.4%
JP
Sears
SEA3.647.4%28.4%14.9%6.9%2.9%1.1%0.4%
Zack
Greinke
MIN3.546.8%27.8%14.5%6.7%2.8%1.0%0.3%
Aaron
Ashby
NYM3.444.6%26.0%13.2%5.9%2.4%0.9%0.3%
Joey
Wentz
BAL3.444.6%26.0%13.2%5.9%2.4%0.9%0.3%
Cole
Ragans
LAA3.240.0%22.1%10.7%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%
John
Brebbia
COL1.23.0%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Luis
Ortiz
26.4%+280
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes103Nestor
Cortes
26.2%+280
Mike
Trout
LAAYes95Cole
Ragans
25.8%+290
Christian
Walker
ARINo107Michael
Grove
25.3%+295
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo110Kyle
Gibson
24.8%+305
Pete
Alonso
NYMYes103Aaron
Ashby
24.4%+310
Bryce
Harper
PHIYes106Ross
Stripling
24.1%+315
Nick
Maton
PHIYes106Ross
Stripling
24.1%+315
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo96Mike
Clevinger
24.0%+315
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo96Mike
Clevinger
24.0%+315
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Ross
Stripling
23.9%+320
Mookie
Betts
LADNo107Zach
Davies
22.9%+335
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes103Aaron
Ashby
22.9%+335
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo103Luis
Ortiz
22.8%+340
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Ross
Stripling
22.6%+340
Mitch
Haniger
SEAYes94JP
Sears
22.4%+345
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLYes97Patrick
Corbin
22.4%+345
Will
Smith
LADNo107Drey
Jameson
22.4%+345
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Carlos
Carrasco
22.4%+345
J.D.
Davis
SFYes108Kyle
Freeland
22.0%+355
Mookie
Betts
LADNo107Drey
Jameson
21.9%+355
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARIYes107Tyler
Anderson
21.8%+360
Josh
Jung
TEXYes95Patrick
Sandoval
21.6%+365
Austin
Riley
ATLYes97Patrick
Corbin
21.4%+365
William
Contreras
ATLYes97Patrick
Corbin
21.4%+365
Trea
Turner
LADNo107Drey
Jameson
21.3%+370
Will
Smith
LADNo107Zach
Davies
21.3%+370
Ty
France
SEAYes94JP
Sears
20.9%+380
Lewis
Brinson
SFYes108Kyle
Freeland
20.8%+380
Albert
Pujols
STLNo96Mike
Clevinger
20.7%+380
Corbin
Carroll
ARIYes102Michael
Grove
20.4%+390
C.J.
Cron
COLNo108Sean
Hjelle
20.4%+390
Trea
Turner
LADNo107Zach
Davies
20.2%+395
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes108Kyle
Freeland
20.2%+395
David
Villar
SFYes108Kyle
Freeland
20.2%+395
Anthony
Santander
BALYes112Joey
Wentz
20.1%+400
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo110Kyle
Gibson
20.1%+400
Matt
Chapman
TORNo110Kyle
Gibson
20.1%+400
Seth
Brown
OAKYes92Luis
Castillo
20.0%+400
Max
Muncy
LADYes102Zach
Davies
19.9%+405
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes102Michael
Grove
19.9%+405
Jose
Altuve
HOUYes94Shane
McClanahan
19.9%+405
Dansby
Swanson
ATLYes97Patrick
Corbin
19.8%+405
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo103Carlos
Carrasco
19.7%+410
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Luis
Ortiz
19.7%+410
Chris
Taylor
LADNo107Drey
Jameson
19.6%+410
Chris
Taylor
LADNo107Zach
Davies
19.6%+410
Danny
Jansen
TORNo110Kyle
Gibson
19.5%+415
Max
Muncy
LADYes102Drey
Jameson
19.3%+420
Joey
Gallo
LADYes102Zach
Davies
19.3%+420
Shohei
Ohtani
LAANo101Cole
Ragans
19.2%+420
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes109Luis
Ortiz
19.0%+425
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo106Aaron
Civale
18.9%+430
Rafael
Devers
BOSNo113Nick
Lodolo
18.7%+435
Joey
Gallo
LADYes102Drey
Jameson
18.7%+435
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes111Dylan
Cease
18.7%+435
Salvador
Perez
KCNo92Dylan
Bundy
18.6%+440
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Dylan
Bundy
18.6%+440
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo103Carlos
Carrasco
18.5%+440
Ian
Happ
CHCYes92Pablo
Lopez
18.4%+445
TJ
Friedl
CINYes113Brayan
Bello
18.3%+450
Evan
Longoria
SFYes108Kyle
Freeland
18.2%+450
Bo
Bichette
TORNo110Kyle
Gibson
18.2%+450
Dylan
Moore
SEAYes94JP
Sears
18.2%+450
Christian
Walker
ARIYes107Tyler
Anderson
18.1%+450
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes111Aaron
Civale
18.0%+455
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes111Aaron
Civale
18.0%+455
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Adam
Wainwright
17.5%+470
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes102Zach
Davies
17.5%+470
Austin
Hays
BALYes112Joey
Wentz
17.4%+475
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes112Joey
Wentz
17.4%+475
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes111Dylan
Cease
17.3%+475
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo94Luis
Castillo
17.2%+480
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo90Pablo
Lopez
17.2%+480
Tyler
Naquin
NYMNo101Aaron
Ashby
17.2%+480
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes95Mike
Clevinger
17.1%+485
Oneil
Cruz
PITNo109Nestor
Cortes
17.1%+485
Mike
Toglia
COLYes109Sean
Hjelle
17.1%+485
Elvis
Andrus
CHWNo106Aaron
Civale
17.1%+485
George
Springer
TORNo110Kyle
Gibson
16.9%+490
Jake
Fraley
CINYes113Brayan
Bello
16.9%+490
Joey
Bart
SFYes108Kyle
Freeland
16.9%+495
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes102Drey
Jameson
16.9%+495
Jesus
Aguilar
BALYes112Joey
Wentz
16.6%+500
Trevor
Story
BOSYes111Nick
Lodolo
16.5%+505
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo97Charlie
Morton
16.5%+505
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes95Patrick
Sandoval
16.5%+505
Eric
Haase
DETNo112Austin
Voth
16.5%+505
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo106Dylan
Cease
16.4%+510
Jonathan
India
CINNo111Brayan
Bello
16.3%+510
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo110Ross
Stripling
16.2%+515
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo94Cristian
Javier
16.1%+520
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Carlos
Carrasco
16.0%+525
Michael
Harris
II
ATLNo100Patrick
Corbin
16.0%+525
Michael
Chavis
PITYes103Nestor
Cortes
15.5%+545
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Carlos
Carrasco
15.4%+550
Joey
Meneses
WSHNo97Charlie
Morton
15.3%+555
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes111Dylan
Cease
15.2%+555
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes95Patrick
Sandoval
15.2%+560
Mark
Mathias
TEXYes95Patrick
Sandoval
15.2%+560
Trey
Mancini
HOUYes94Shane
McClanahan
15.1%+565
Corey
Seager
TEXNo101Patrick
Sandoval
15.0%+565
J.D.
Martinez
BOSYes111Nick
Lodolo
15.0%+565
Nick
Gordon
MINYes92Zack
Greinke
14.9%+570
Dermis
Garcia
OAKNo94Luis
Castillo
14.9%+570
Ronald
Acuna
ATLYes97Patrick
Corbin
14.8%+575
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Luis
Ortiz
14.7%+580
Thairo
Estrada
SFYes108Kyle
Freeland
14.7%+580
Taylor
Ward
LAAYes95Cole
Ragans
14.5%+590
Justin
Turner
LADNo107Drey
Jameson
14.5%+590
Jeremy
Pena
HOUYes94Shane
McClanahan
14.4%+595
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALYes112Joey
Wentz
14.3%+600
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSYes111Nick
Lodolo
14.2%+605
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo111Brayan
Bello
14.2%+605
Aristides
Aquino
CINNo111Brayan
Bello
14.2%+605
Jake
McCarthy
ARIYes102Michael
Grove
14.2%+605
Brian
Anderson
MIANo90Adrian
Sampson
13.8%+625
Matt
Olson
ATLNo100Patrick
Corbin
13.8%+625
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes94JP
Sears
13.7%+625
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Aaron
Civale
13.7%+630
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Dylan
Bundy
13.7%+630
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes92Dylan
Bundy
13.7%+630
Kerry
Carpenter
DETYes110Austin
Voth
13.6%+635
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes102Zach
Davies
13.5%+640
Gio
Urshela
MINNo92Zack
Greinke
13.4%+645
Jose
Miranda
MINNo92Zack
Greinke
13.4%+645
Diego
Castillo
PITYes103Nestor
Cortes
13.4%+650
Luke
Voit
WSHNo97Charlie
Morton
13.3%+650
Brandon
Drury
SDNo96Adam
Wainwright
13.2%+655
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes95Cole
Ragans
13.2%+660
Carson
Kelly
ARIYes107Tyler
Anderson
13.0%+670
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes110Austin
Voth
12.8%+680
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo112Austin
Voth
12.8%+680
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes102Drey
Jameson
12.8%+685
Carlos
Correa
MINNo92Zack
Greinke
12.8%+685
Corey
Dickerson
STLYes95Mike
Clevinger
12.7%+685
Tommy
Edman
STLYes95Mike
Clevinger
12.7%+685
Vaughn
Grissom
ATLYes97Patrick
Corbin
12.7%+685
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMNo101Aaron
Ashby
12.7%+690
Tommy
Pham
BOSYes111Nick
Lodolo
12.6%+695
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes103Nestor
Cortes
12.6%+695
Max
Stassi
LAAYes95Cole
Ragans
12.5%+700
Martin
Maldonado
HOUYes94Shane
McClanahan
12.4%+710
Abraham
Toro
SEAYes94JP
Sears
12.4%+710
Christian
Bethancourt
TBNo94Cristian
Javier
12.3%+710
Kyle
Tucker
HOUNo92Shane
McClanahan
12.3%+715
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo106Aaron
Civale
12.2%+720
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo101Patrick
Sandoval
12.1%+730
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes102Michael
Grove
12.0%+730
Josh
Bell
SDYes95Adam
Wainwright
12.0%+730
Javier
Baez
DETNo112Austin
Voth
12.0%+735
Riley
Adams
WSHNo97Charlie
Morton
12.0%+735
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes109Sean
Hjelle
12.0%+735
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo90Pablo
Lopez
11.9%+740
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes103Aaron
Ashby
11.8%+745
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUNo92Shane
McClanahan
11.7%+755
David
Peralta
TBYes92Cristian
Javier
11.7%+755
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFNo109Kyle
Freeland
11.6%+765
Alek
Thomas
ARINo102Tyler
Anderson
11.6%+765
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo92Zack
Greinke
11.5%+775
Riley
Greene
DETYes110Austin
Voth
11.2%+790
Nelson
Velazquez
CHCNo90Pablo
Lopez
11.2%+790
Alec
Bohm
PHINo110Ross
Stripling
11.0%+805
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes95Patrick
Sandoval
11.0%+805
JJ
Bleday
MIAYes92Adrian
Sampson
11.0%+810
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo94Cristian
Javier
11.0%+810
Alex
Bregman
HOUYes94Shane
McClanahan
10.9%+815
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSYes111Nick
Lodolo
10.9%+815
Connor
Wong
BOSYes111Nick
Lodolo
10.9%+815
Alan
Trejo
COLNo108Sean
Hjelle
10.8%+820
Stone
Garrett
ARINo107Michael
Grove
10.8%+830
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Aaron
Civale
10.7%+835
Jake
Cave
MINYes92Zack
Greinke
10.3%+870
Lewin
Diaz
MIAYes92Adrian
Sampson
10.3%+870
Wander
Franco
TBYes92Cristian
Javier
10.3%+870
Jake
McCarthy
ARINo102Tyler
Anderson
10.3%+870
Sam
Haggerty
SEAYes94JP
Sears
10.2%+885
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo90Pablo
Lopez
9.9%+910
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes95Mike
Clevinger
9.9%+910
Sergio
Alcantara
ARIYes107Tyler
Anderson
9.7%+930
Stone
Garrett
ARIYes107Tyler
Anderson
9.7%+930
Kolten
Wong
MILYes101Carlos
Carrasco
9.7%+935
Jace
Peterson
MILYes101Carlos
Carrasco
9.7%+935
Ildemaro
Vargas
WSHYes100Charlie
Morton
9.6%+945
Mark
Canha
NYMYes103Aaron
Ashby
9.4%+965
Elias
Diaz
COLNo108Sean
Hjelle
9.2%+985
Ramon
Urias
BALYes112Joey
Wentz
9.2%+985
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes95Adam
Wainwright
9.1%+995
Juan
Soto
SDYes95Adam
Wainwright
9.1%+995
Drew
Waters
KCYes92Dylan
Bundy
8.9%+1025
Livan
Soto
LAANo101Cole
Ragans
8.9%+1025
Manuel
Margot
TBNo94Cristian
Javier
8.9%+1025
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes109Sean
Hjelle
8.6%+1060
P.J.
Higgins
CHCNo90Pablo
Lopez
8.5%+1070
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes106Ross
Stripling
8.4%+1085
Brendan
Donovan
STLYes95Mike
Clevinger
8.4%+1090
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo108Sean
Hjelle
8.4%+1090
Yadier
Molina
STLNo96Mike
Clevinger
8.3%+1105
Josh
Rojas
ARINo102Tyler
Anderson
8.3%+1105
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo106Aaron
Civale
8.2%+1115
Robert
Refsnyder
BOSYes111Nick
Lodolo
8.2%+1120
Zach
McKinstry
CHCYes92Pablo
Lopez
8.1%+1125
Chad
Pinder
OAKNo94Luis
Castillo
8.1%+1130
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo103Luis
Ortiz
8.0%+1145
Curt
Casali
SEAYes94JP
Sears
7.9%+1175
Victor
Reyes
DETYes110Austin
Voth
7.8%+1180
Harold
Castro
DETYes110Austin
Voth
7.8%+1180

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