MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 9/23/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SDRyan
Feltner
11.06.0456.1%40.0%26.2%15.7%8.7%
COLSean
Manaea
11.04.9637.7%23.2%12.9%6.6%3.0%
MILMike
Minor
9.04.9537.5%23.1%12.8%6.5%3.0%
LADJose
Quintana
8.54.8034.9%20.9%11.3%5.6%2.5%
NYYRich
Hill
7.54.4028.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
SFTommy
Henry
8.04.3026.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
NYMCole
Irvin
7.04.1323.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
PITJavier
Assad
8.04.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
HOUDean
Kremer
7.54.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
CINEric
Lauer
9.04.0522.3%11.6%5.4%2.3%0.9%
CHWEduardo
Rodriguez
7.03.9220.2%10.3%4.7%1.9%0.7%
CHCBryse
Wilson
8.03.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
TEXCody
Morris
7.53.8919.8%10.0%4.5%1.8%0.7%
PHIJake
Odorizzi
7.03.8318.9%9.4%4.2%1.7%0.6%
TBMitch
White
7.03.7517.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
ARICarlos
Rodon
8.03.7017.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
STLAndrew
Heaney
8.53.7017.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
CLEJon
Gray
7.53.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
BALJose
Urquidy
7.53.4413.5%6.1%2.4%0.9%0.3%
TORJeffrey
Springs
7.03.2511.1%4.8%1.8%0.6%0.2%
ATLAaron
Nola
7.03.1710.2%4.3%1.6%0.5%0.2%
BOSGerrit
Cole
7.53.109.4%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
DETLucas
Giolito
7.03.089.2%3.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%
OAKChris
Bassitt
7.02.877.1%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Gerrit
Cole
BOS7.794.9%88.4%78.3%65.3%50.9%37.0%25.0%
Aaron
Nola
ATL7.393.3%85.3%73.7%59.5%44.7%31.2%20.2%
Shohei
Ohtani
MIN7.393.1%85.0%73.2%59.0%44.1%30.7%19.8%
Carlos
Rodon
ARI7.091.7%82.4%69.5%54.6%39.7%26.7%16.6%
Lucas
Giolito
DET6.286.4%73.8%58.3%42.3%28.1%17.2%9.7%
Chris
Bassitt
OAK6.084.6%71.1%54.9%38.9%25.2%15.0%8.2%
Jeffrey
Springs
TOR6.084.6%71.1%54.9%38.9%25.2%15.0%8.2%
Jon
Gray
CLE5.782.3%67.7%51.0%35.0%22.0%12.6%6.7%
Andrew
Heaney
STL5.782.0%67.3%50.5%34.6%21.6%12.3%6.5%
Jose
Urquidy
BAL5.478.2%62.0%44.7%29.2%17.4%9.4%4.7%
Braxton
Garrett
WSH5.275.9%59.1%41.6%26.5%15.3%8.0%3.9%
Brady
Singer
SEA5.175.0%57.9%40.3%25.4%14.5%7.6%3.6%
Sean
Manaea
COL5.073.6%56.1%38.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
Eric
Lauer
CIN4.972.2%54.4%36.8%22.5%12.4%6.2%2.9%
Josiah
Gray
MIA4.971.3%53.3%35.8%21.6%11.8%5.9%2.7%
Louie
Varland
LAA4.668.1%49.4%32.1%18.7%9.9%4.7%2.1%
Eduardo
Rodriguez
CHW4.666.8%47.9%30.7%17.7%9.2%4.3%1.9%
Jose
Quintana
LAD4.666.6%47.7%30.6%17.5%9.1%4.3%1.8%
Mike
Minor
MIL4.260.5%41.0%24.7%13.3%6.4%2.8%1.1%
Cole
Irvin
NYM4.260.3%40.8%24.5%13.1%6.3%2.8%1.1%
Jake
Odorizzi
PHI4.259.7%40.2%24.0%12.8%6.1%2.7%1.0%
Marco
Gonzales
KC4.159.0%39.5%23.4%12.4%5.9%2.5%1.0%
Javier
Assad
PIT4.158.2%38.7%22.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
Dean
Kremer
HOU4.056.7%37.1%21.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
Rich
Hill
NYY3.955.1%35.6%20.2%10.3%4.7%1.9%0.7%
Mitch
White
TB3.853.1%33.6%18.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
Tommy
Henry
SF3.852.9%33.4%18.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
Ryan
Feltner
SD3.851.8%32.4%17.9%8.7%3.8%1.5%0.5%
Cody
Morris
TEX3.545.9%27.1%14.0%6.4%2.6%1.0%0.3%
Bryse
Wilson
CHC3.443.3%24.8%12.4%5.5%2.2%0.8%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
C.J.
Cron
COLYes108Sean
Manaea
28.2%+255
Manny
Machado
SDNo108Ryan
Feltner
27.2%+270
Austin
Riley
ATLNo110Aaron
Nola
26.6%+275
Willy
Adames
MILYes111Mike
Minor
26.1%+285
Stuart
Fairchild
CINYes111Eric
Lauer
26.1%+285
Bryce
Harper
PHIYes106Jake
Odorizzi
26.0%+285
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLYes107Andrew
Heaney
25.9%+285
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Jose
Urquidy
25.7%+290
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes110Dean
Kremer
25.2%+295
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes95Javier
Assad
24.2%+315
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes93Tommy
Henry
24.1%+315
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes99Louie
Varland
24.0%+315
Nolan
Arenado
STLYes107Andrew
Heaney
24.0%+315
Trea
Turner
LADYes107Jose
Quintana
24.0%+315
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Jake
Odorizzi
23.9%+320
Pete
Alonso
NYMYes94Cole
Irvin
23.9%+320
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo95Cody
Morris
23.8%+320
Tyrone
Taylor
MILYes111Mike
Minor
23.5%+325
Mike
Trout
LAANo98Louie
Varland
23.5%+325
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYYes103Rich
Hill
23.4%+330
Aaron
Judge
NYYYes103Rich
Hill
22.3%+350
Eric
Haase
DETNo106Lucas
Giolito
22.3%+350
Hunter
Renfroe
MILYes111Mike
Minor
21.8%+360
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Javier
Assad
21.4%+365
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Javier
Assad
21.4%+365
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes110Dean
Kremer
21.0%+375
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORYes94Jeffrey
Springs
20.9%+380
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo112Dean
Kremer
20.9%+380
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes109Gerrit
Cole
20.9%+380
Juan
Soto
SDYes109Ryan
Feltner
20.9%+380
Evan
Longoria
SFYes93Tommy
Henry
20.8%+380
Salvador
Perez
KCYes92Marco
Gonzales
20.6%+385
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Jake
Odorizzi
20.4%+390
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes94Cole
Irvin
20.4%+390
Danny
Jansen
TORYes94Jeffrey
Springs
20.4%+390
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo112Dean
Kremer
20.3%+390
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo95Cody
Morris
20.1%+400
Aristides
Aquino
CINYes111Eric
Lauer
19.9%+400
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORYes94Jeffrey
Springs
19.9%+405
Corey
Seager
TEXYes101Cody
Morris
19.7%+405
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes101Cody
Morris
19.7%+405
Mookie
Betts
LADYes107Jose
Quintana
19.4%+415
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes95Javier
Assad
19.4%+415
Kerry
Carpenter
DETYes111Lucas
Giolito
19.3%+420
Rowdy
Tellez
MILNo113Mike
Minor
19.3%+420
David
Villar
SFYes93Tommy
Henry
19.1%+420
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFNo99Tommy
Henry
18.9%+430
Mark
Canha
NYMYes94Cole
Irvin
18.7%+435
Andrew
McCutchen
MILYes111Mike
Minor
18.6%+435
Josh
Bell
SDYes109Ryan
Feltner
18.4%+445
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes109Ryan
Feltner
18.4%+445
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes99Louie
Varland
18.3%+445
Mitch
Haniger
SEANo92Brady
Singer
18.0%+455
Nick
Maton
PHIYes106Jake
Odorizzi
18.0%+455
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWYes106Eduardo
Rodriguez
18.0%+455
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWYes106Eduardo
Rodriguez
18.0%+455
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes101Cody
Morris
18.0%+455
Carlos
Correa
MINNo98Shohei
Ohtani
17.8%+460
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo112Dean
Kremer
17.8%+460
George
Springer
TORYes94Jeffrey
Springs
17.6%+470
William
Contreras
ATLNo110Aaron
Nola
17.6%+470
Justin
Turner
LADYes107Jose
Quintana
17.4%+475
Thairo
Estrada
SFYes93Tommy
Henry
17.4%+475
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCYes92Marco
Gonzales
17.3%+480
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes92Brady
Singer
17.3%+480
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo94Mitch
White
17.2%+480
Victor
Caratini
MILYes111Mike
Minor
17.2%+480
Luis
Urias
MILYes111Mike
Minor
17.2%+480
Jonathan
India
CINYes111Eric
Lauer
17.2%+480
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo112Dean
Kremer
17.1%+485
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo110Jake
Odorizzi
16.9%+490
Elehuris
Montero
COLYes108Sean
Manaea
16.9%+495
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo95Jon
Gray
16.8%+495
Albert
Pujols
STLYes107Andrew
Heaney
16.7%+500
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes106Aaron
Nola
16.7%+500
Michael
Brosseau
MILYes111Mike
Minor
16.5%+505
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes94Cole
Irvin
16.3%+510
Josh
Donaldson
NYYYes103Rich
Hill
16.2%+515
Gleyber
Torres
NYYYes103Rich
Hill
16.2%+515
Joey
Bart
SFYes93Tommy
Henry
16.2%+515
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes101Jon
Gray
16.1%+520
Tommy
Edman
STLYes107Andrew
Heaney
16.0%+525
Taylor
Ward
LAANo98Louie
Varland
16.0%+525
Brandon
Drury
SDNo108Ryan
Feltner
16.0%+525
Elvis
Andrus
CHWYes106Eduardo
Rodriguez
15.9%+530
Gunnar
Henderson
BALYes110Jose
Urquidy
15.8%+530
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes92Brady
Singer
15.5%+545
Jonathan
Aranda
TBYes92Mitch
White
15.5%+545
Hunter
Dozier
KCYes92Marco
Gonzales
15.4%+545
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo103Gerrit
Cole
15.4%+550
Ben
Gamel
PITYes95Javier
Assad
15.3%+555
Paul
DeJong
STLYes107Andrew
Heaney
15.3%+555
Mickey
Moniak
LAAYes99Louie
Varland
15.2%+560
Matt
Chapman
TORYes94Jeffrey
Springs
15.1%+565
Kyle
Farmer
CINYes111Eric
Lauer
15.0%+565
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo94Chris
Bassitt
14.9%+570
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYNo109Rich
Hill
14.8%+575
Gio
Urshela
MINNo98Shohei
Ohtani
14.8%+575
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo98Shohei
Ohtani
14.8%+575
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes101Jon
Gray
14.8%+575
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo92Bryse
Wilson
14.6%+585
Will
Smith
LADYes107Jose
Quintana
14.6%+585
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes106Eduardo
Rodriguez
14.4%+590
Austin
Hays
BALNo112Jose
Urquidy
14.3%+600
Nelson
Velazquez
CHCNo92Bryse
Wilson
14.0%+615
Josh
Jung
TEXNo95Cody
Morris
13.8%+625
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes111Lucas
Giolito
13.7%+630
Seth
Brown
OAKYes92Chris
Bassitt
13.7%+630
Austin
Slater
SFYes93Tommy
Henry
13.6%+635
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes110Jose
Urquidy
13.6%+635
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo102Jose
Quintana
13.4%+645
Zach
McKinstry
CHCYes95Bryse
Wilson
13.4%+650
Matt
Thaiss
LAAYes99Louie
Varland
13.2%+660
Brian
Anderson
MIANo90Josiah
Gray
13.1%+660
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNo108Ryan
Feltner
13.1%+660
Elias
Diaz
COLYes108Sean
Manaea
13.1%+660
Bo
Bichette
TORYes94Jeffrey
Springs
13.1%+665
Chris
Taylor
LADYes107Jose
Quintana
13.0%+670
Trayce
Thompson
LADYes107Jose
Quintana
13.0%+670
Christian
Bethancourt
TBNo94Mitch
White
13.0%+670
J.D.
Davis
SFYes93Tommy
Henry
12.9%+675
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo106Lucas
Giolito
12.9%+675
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo112Dean
Kremer
12.8%+680
Ramon
Urias
BALNo112Jose
Urquidy
12.8%+680
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo112Jose
Urquidy
12.8%+680
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo92Brady
Singer
12.8%+685
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo103Gerrit
Cole
12.6%+690
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo110Aaron
Nola
12.6%+695
Riley
Adams
WSHYes90Braxton
Garrett
12.6%+695
Joey
Meneses
WSHYes90Braxton
Garrett
12.6%+695
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes92Brady
Singer
12.4%+710
Jarred
Kelenic
SEAYes92Brady
Singer
12.4%+710
Jose
Siri
TBNo94Mitch
White
12.3%+710
Dermis
Garcia
OAKNo94Chris
Bassitt
12.3%+710
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCNo92Marco
Gonzales
12.3%+715
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARIYes93Carlos
Rodon
12.2%+715
Juan
Yepez
STLYes107Andrew
Heaney
12.2%+720
Ty
France
SEANo92Brady
Singer
12.1%+725
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo112Dean
Kremer
12.0%+735
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo112Jose
Urquidy
12.0%+735
Christian
Yelich
MILNo113Mike
Minor
11.9%+735
Luke
Voit
WSHYes90Braxton
Garrett
11.9%+740
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes90Braxton
Garrett
11.9%+740
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo90Josiah
Gray
11.9%+740
Austin
Romine
CINYes111Eric
Lauer
11.8%+750
Lewin
Diaz
MIAYes92Josiah
Gray
11.7%+755
Wander
Franco
TBYes92Mitch
White
11.7%+755
Matt
Olson
ATLYes106Aaron
Nola
11.7%+755
Jose
Azocar
SDNo108Ryan
Feltner
11.6%+760
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes108Sean
Manaea
11.5%+770
Connor
Joe
COLYes108Sean
Manaea
11.5%+770
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes107Andrew
Heaney
11.4%+775
A.J.
Pollock
CHWYes106Eduardo
Rodriguez
11.3%+785
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo103Gerrit
Cole
11.2%+795
Oswaldo
Cabrera
NYYYes103Rich
Hill
11.0%+805
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo110Aaron
Nola
11.0%+805
Brandon
Marsh
PHIYes106Jake
Odorizzi
10.9%+820
Carson
Kelly
ARIYes93Carlos
Rodon
10.8%+825
Austin
Barnes
LADYes107Jose
Quintana
10.6%+845
MJ
Melendez
KCNo92Marco
Gonzales
10.6%+845
Riley
Greene
DETYes111Lucas
Giolito
10.5%+850
Austin
Hedges
CLENo95Jon
Gray
10.4%+860
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes109Ryan
Feltner
10.3%+865
JJ
Bleday
MIAYes92Josiah
Gray
10.3%+870
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo94Mitch
White
10.3%+870
Shea
Langeliers
OAKNo94Chris
Bassitt
10.3%+870
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo110Aaron
Nola
10.2%+880
Alec
Bohm
PHINo110Jake
Odorizzi
10.2%+880
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes106Jake
Odorizzi
10.1%+890
Christian
Walker
ARIYes93Carlos
Rodon
10.1%+890
Luis
Gonzalez
SFYes93Tommy
Henry
10.1%+890
Charles
Leblanc
MIANo90Josiah
Gray
9.9%+910
Ian
Happ
CHCYes95Bryse
Wilson
9.9%+910
Javier
Baez
DETNo106Lucas
Giolito
9.9%+910
Luis
Garcia
WSHYes90Braxton
Garrett
9.8%+920
Alex
Call
WSHYes90Braxton
Garrett
9.8%+920
Yadier
Molina
STLYes107Andrew
Heaney
9.7%+930
Yasmani
Grandal
CHWYes106Eduardo
Rodriguez
9.6%+940
Alejandro
Kirk
TORYes94Jeffrey
Springs
9.4%+960
David
Bote
CHCNo92Bryse
Wilson
9.4%+965
Vaughn
Grissom
ATLNo110Aaron
Nola
9.4%+965
Daulton
Varsho
ARINo99Carlos
Rodon
9.4%+965
Jordan
Luplow
ARIYes93Carlos
Rodon
9.3%+970
Edward
Olivares
KCYes92Marco
Gonzales
9.2%+985
Cal
Mitchell
PITYes95Javier
Assad
9.1%+995
Spencer
Steer
CINYes111Eric
Lauer
9.1%+995
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes101Jon
Gray
8.9%+1025
Jeff
McNeil
NYMNo92Cole
Irvin
8.8%+1040
Jose
Abreu
CHWYes106Eduardo
Rodriguez
8.8%+1040
Jake
Cave
MINYes99Shohei
Ohtani
8.7%+1050
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo92Bryse
Wilson
8.7%+1050
Jose
Miranda
MINNo98Shohei
Ohtani
8.5%+1085
Zack
Collins
PITYes95Javier
Assad
8.4%+1090
Miguel
Cabrera
DETNo106Lucas
Giolito
8.2%+1115
Mike
Ford
LAAYes99Louie
Varland
7.9%+1165
Matt
Wallner
MINYes99Shohei
Ohtani
7.9%+1165
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes110Jose
Urquidy
7.8%+1180
Jon
Berti
MIANo90Josiah
Gray
7.8%+1180

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