MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Tuesday 9/27/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
ATLPaolo
Espino
8.54.9537.5%23.1%12.8%6.5%3.0%
HOUZach
Davies
8.04.7033.2%19.5%10.4%5.0%2.2%
BOSKyle
Bradish
9.04.6732.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
LAAJames
Kaprielian
8.04.6231.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
BALMichael
Wacha
9.04.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
STLAdrian
Houser
8.54.3226.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
SEAJesus
Tinoco
7.54.3126.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
MILMiles
Mikolas
8.54.1824.4%13.0%6.3%2.7%1.1%
NYMPablo
Lopez
7.04.0822.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
NYYJose
Berrios
8.04.0422.1%11.5%5.4%2.3%0.9%
SFGerman
Marquez
7.03.9620.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
TORJameson
Taillon
8.03.9620.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
DETZack
Greinke
7.53.7818.1%8.9%3.9%1.6%0.6%
SDTyler
Anderson
7.53.7718.0%8.8%3.9%1.5%0.5%
LADBlake
Snell
7.53.7317.4%8.4%3.7%1.4%0.5%
KCJoey
Wentz
7.53.7217.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
CHWBailey
Ober
7.03.6316.0%7.6%3.2%1.2%0.4%
PHIMarcus
Stroman
6.53.6015.6%7.3%3.1%1.2%0.4%
PITHunter
Greene
7.03.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
WSHKyle
Muller
8.53.5514.9%6.9%2.9%1.1%0.4%
CLECorey
Kluber
6.53.4914.1%6.5%2.6%1.0%0.3%
CINMitch
Keller
7.03.4313.3%6.0%2.4%0.9%0.3%
OAKPatrick
Sandoval
8.03.3812.7%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
MINLance
Lynn
7.03.3712.6%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
ARILance
McCullers
8.03.3011.7%5.1%2.0%0.7%0.2%
TEXRobbie
Ray
7.53.1910.4%4.4%1.7%0.6%0.2%
COLLogan
Webb
7.03.048.8%3.6%1.3%0.4%0.1%
TBShane
Bieber
6.53.018.5%3.4%1.2%0.4%0.1%
MIACarlos
Carrasco
7.02.927.6%3.0%1.0%0.3%0.1%
CHCZack
Wheeler
6.52.907.4%2.9%1.0%0.3%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Robbie
Ray
TEX7.091.9%82.8%70.1%55.2%40.3%27.2%17.1%
Blake
Snell
LAD7.091.6%82.3%69.4%54.4%39.5%26.6%16.5%
Shane
Bieber
TB6.991.1%81.5%68.2%53.1%38.2%25.4%15.7%
Lance
McCullers
ARI6.488.3%76.7%61.9%46.1%31.6%19.9%11.6%
Patrick
Sandoval
OAK6.085.1%71.8%55.8%39.7%25.9%15.5%8.5%
Lance
Lynn
MIN6.084.9%71.5%55.4%39.4%25.6%15.3%8.4%
Hunter
Greene
PIT6.084.8%71.4%55.3%39.2%25.5%15.2%8.3%
Carlos
Carrasco
MIA5.983.8%69.9%53.5%37.4%24.0%14.1%7.6%
Tyler
Anderson
SD5.579.7%64.1%46.9%31.2%18.9%10.5%5.3%
Logan
Webb
COL5.478.9%63.0%45.7%30.1%18.1%9.9%5.0%
Michael
Wacha
BAL5.478.6%62.5%45.2%29.7%17.7%9.7%4.8%
Zack
Wheeler
CHC5.174.2%56.8%39.3%24.5%13.9%7.1%3.4%
Pablo
Lopez
NYM5.073.4%55.8%38.2%23.6%13.2%6.7%3.1%
Jose
Berrios
NYY4.971.6%53.6%36.1%21.9%12.0%6.0%2.7%
Marcus
Stroman
PHI4.870.7%52.6%35.1%21.1%11.4%5.6%2.5%
Corey
Kluber
CLE4.870.1%51.8%34.4%20.5%11.0%5.4%2.4%
Jameson
Taillon
TOR4.870.1%51.8%34.4%20.5%11.0%5.4%2.4%
Mitch
Keller
CIN4.870.0%51.6%34.2%20.4%11.0%5.4%2.4%
Kyle
Bradish
BOS4.768.6%50.0%32.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
Bailey
Ober
CHW4.565.9%47.0%29.9%17.0%8.7%4.1%1.7%
Kyle
Muller
WSH4.464.7%45.6%28.7%16.1%8.2%3.8%1.6%
Miles
Mikolas
MIL4.463.9%44.7%27.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
German
Marquez
SF4.361.9%42.6%26.0%14.2%7.0%3.1%1.3%
James
Kaprielian
LAA4.260.8%41.4%25.0%13.5%6.5%2.9%1.1%
Zach
Davies
HOU4.055.7%36.1%20.7%10.6%4.8%2.0%0.7%
Adrian
Houser
STL3.649.1%29.9%16.0%7.6%3.2%1.2%0.4%
Zack
Greinke
DET3.647.4%28.4%14.9%6.9%2.9%1.1%0.4%
Joey
Wentz
KC3.547.2%28.2%14.8%6.8%2.8%1.1%0.4%
Paolo
Espino
ATL3.136.8%19.7%9.1%3.7%1.3%0.4%0.1%
Jesus
Tinoco
SEA1.02.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo101Jose
Berrios
28.3%+255
Joc
Pederson
SFYes87German
Marquez
27.6%+260
Bryce
Harper
PHIYes96Marcus
Stroman
26.0%+285
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo103Adrian
Houser
25.1%+300
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Zach
Davies
24.9%+300
William
Contreras
ATLNo106Paolo
Espino
24.7%+305
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes96Marcus
Stroman
24.4%+310
Mike
Trout
LAANo103James
Kaprielian
24.3%+310
Austin
Riley
ATLNo106Paolo
Espino
23.8%+320
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes99Robbie
Ray
23.7%+320
David
Villar
SFNo90German
Marquez
23.4%+325
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo103Adrian
Houser
23.3%+330
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo101Jose
Berrios
23.0%+335
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Jameson
Taillon
23.0%+335
Mookie
Betts
LADYes96Blake
Snell
22.8%+340
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103Zack
Wheeler
22.3%+350
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo106Paolo
Espino
22.3%+350
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes93Kyle
Bradish
22.1%+355
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Hunter
Greene
21.9%+355
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo101Jameson
Taillon
21.5%+365
Manny
Machado
SDYes96Tyler
Anderson
21.2%+370
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo106Paolo
Espino
21.2%+370
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo98Pablo
Lopez
21.1%+375
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Hunter
Greene
20.9%+375
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108James
Kaprielian
20.7%+385
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes95Hunter
Greene
20.4%+390
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo103Marcus
Stroman
20.2%+395
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Miles
Mikolas
20.2%+395
Matt
Olson
ATLYes104Paolo
Espino
20.2%+395
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Jameson
Taillon
19.9%+400
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Miles
Mikolas
19.7%+405
Albert
Pujols
STLNo103Adrian
Houser
19.7%+410
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes104Paolo
Espino
19.6%+410
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes96Jesus
Tinoco
19.5%+410
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes99Bailey
Ober
19.4%+415
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Zach
Davies
19.4%+415
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo101Jose
Berrios
19.4%+415
Danny
Jansen
TORNo101Jameson
Taillon
19.4%+415
Luke
Voit
WSHYes106Kyle
Muller
18.6%+435
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes106Kyle
Muller
18.6%+435
Stuart
Fairchild
CINNo92Mitch
Keller
18.6%+440
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Kyle
Bradish
18.5%+440
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes93Michael
Wacha
18.5%+440
Trea
Turner
LADYes96Blake
Snell
18.5%+440
C.J.
Cron
COLNo90Logan
Webb
18.3%+445
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Zach
Davies
18.1%+450
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo103Marcus
Stroman
17.9%+460
Taylor
Ward
LAANo103James
Kaprielian
17.9%+460
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes95Pablo
Lopez
17.7%+465
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes95Hunter
Greene
17.7%+465
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo106Paolo
Espino
17.7%+465
Salvador
Perez
KCYes99Joey
Wentz
17.7%+465
Mark
Mathias
TEXYes99Robbie
Ray
17.7%+465
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101Zach
Davies
17.6%+465
Dermis
Garcia
OAKYes103Patrick
Sandoval
17.6%+470
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes94Jose
Berrios
17.6%+470
Joey
Meneses
WSHYes106Kyle
Muller
17.3%+480
Will
Smith
LADYes96Blake
Snell
17.2%+480
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo101Jose
Berrios
17.0%+485
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Jameson
Taillon
17.0%+485
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCYes99Joey
Wentz
17.0%+485
Gio
Urshela
MINNo98Lance
Lynn
16.6%+500
Josh
Jung
TEXYes99Robbie
Ray
16.4%+510
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Miles
Mikolas
16.0%+525
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo103Miles
Mikolas
16.0%+525
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo98Bailey
Ober
16.0%+525
Trayce
Thompson
LADYes96Blake
Snell
16.0%+525
Corey
Seager
TEXNo96Robbie
Ray
16.0%+525
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes87German
Marquez
16.0%+525
Juan
Soto
SDNo95Tyler
Anderson
15.8%+530
George
Springer
TORNo101Jameson
Taillon
15.8%+535
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Zach
Davies
15.8%+535
Kyle
Higashioka
NYYNo101Jose
Berrios
15.8%+535
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo99Michael
Wacha
15.5%+545
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo96Robbie
Ray
15.5%+545
Elvis
Andrus
CHWNo98Bailey
Ober
15.4%+550
Tyler
Naquin
NYMYes95Pablo
Lopez
15.3%+555
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes99Bailey
Ober
15.2%+560
Anthony
Santander
BALYes93Michael
Wacha
15.0%+565
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes93Michael
Wacha
15.0%+565
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes87German
Marquez
14.8%+575
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96Jesus
Tinoco
14.8%+575
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes95Pablo
Lopez
14.7%+580
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes95Pablo
Lopez
14.7%+580
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo90German
Marquez
14.4%+595
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Corey
Kluber
14.3%+600
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo99Shane
Bieber
14.2%+600
Carlos
Correa
MINNo98Lance
Lynn
14.1%+610
Austin
Barnes
LADYes96Blake
Snell
14.0%+615
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Zach
Davies
13.8%+625
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes99Robbie
Ray
13.6%+635
Aristides
Aquino
CINNo92Mitch
Keller
13.4%+645
TJ
Friedl
CINYes95Mitch
Keller
13.4%+650
Sean
Murphy
OAKYes103Patrick
Sandoval
13.4%+650
Chris
Taylor
LADYes96Blake
Snell
13.3%+650
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCNo94Joey
Wentz
13.1%+665
Riley
Adams
WSHYes106Kyle
Muller
12.9%+675
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Corey
Kluber
12.9%+675
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo98Lance
Lynn
12.8%+680
Kolten
Wong
MILYes101Miles
Mikolas
12.7%+690
Justin
Turner
LADYes96Blake
Snell
12.6%+695
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Zack
Greinke
12.2%+720
Seth
Brown
OAKNo108Patrick
Sandoval
12.1%+725
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Corey
Kluber
12.1%+725
Brandon
Marsh
PHIYes96Marcus
Stroman
12.1%+725
Luis
Garcia
WSHYes106Kyle
Muller
12.1%+725
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo98Bailey
Ober
12.1%+725
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo98Bailey
Ober
12.1%+725
Jose
Miranda
MINNo98Lance
Lynn
12.1%+725
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes102Lance
McCullers
12.0%+730
Corbin
Carroll
ARIYes102Lance
McCullers
12.0%+730
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes101Adrian
Houser
11.9%+735
Oswaldo
Cabrera
NYYYes94Jose
Berrios
11.9%+740
Max
Stassi
LAANo103James
Kaprielian
11.9%+740
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes108James
Kaprielian
11.9%+745
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes93Kyle
Bradish
11.8%+745
Gunnar
Henderson
BALYes93Michael
Wacha
11.8%+745
Nick
Gordon
MINYes99Lance
Lynn
11.7%+750
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Zach
Davies
11.7%+755
Christian
Bethancourt
TBNo99Shane
Bieber
11.5%+770
Mitch
Haniger
SEANo99Jesus
Tinoco
11.5%+770
Eric
Haase
DETNo99Zack
Greinke
11.5%+770
Dylan
Moore
SEANo99Jesus
Tinoco
11.5%+770
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo95Blake
Snell
11.5%+775
Vaughn
Grissom
ATLNo106Paolo
Espino
11.4%+775
J.P.
Crawford
SEAYes96Jesus
Tinoco
11.4%+775
Hunter
Dozier
KCYes99Joey
Wentz
11.4%+775
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo98Bailey
Ober
11.4%+775
MJ
Melendez
KCNo94Joey
Wentz
11.4%+780
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo103Zack
Wheeler
11.2%+795
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes87German
Marquez
11.1%+800
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes96Tyler
Anderson
11.1%+800
Brandon
Drury
SDYes96Tyler
Anderson
11.1%+800
Triston
Casas
BOSYes93Kyle
Bradish
11.1%+800
Jake
Cave
MINYes99Lance
Lynn
11.0%+810
Christian
Walker
ARINo101Lance
McCullers
11.0%+810
Conner
Capel
OAKNo108Patrick
Sandoval
10.8%+825
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSNo99Kyle
Bradish
10.8%+830
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo99Zack
Greinke
10.8%+830
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Corey
Kluber
10.8%+830
Wander
Franco
TBYes103Shane
Bieber
10.6%+840
Zack
Collins
PITYes95Hunter
Greene
10.6%+840
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes87Logan
Webb
10.5%+855
Carson
Kelly
ARINo101Lance
McCullers
10.2%+880
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Kyle
Bradish
10.0%+895
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo99Kyle
Bradish
10.0%+895
Austin
Hays
BALNo99Michael
Wacha
10.0%+895
Yu
Chang
BOSNo99Kyle
Bradish
10.0%+895
Ramon
Urias
BALNo99Michael
Wacha
10.0%+895
Jarred
Kelenic
SEAYes96Jesus
Tinoco
10.0%+900
Nick
Fortes
MIANo98Carlos
Carrasco
10.0%+905
Cal
Mitchell
PITYes95Hunter
Greene
9.9%+910
Mike
Toglia
COLYes87Logan
Webb
9.8%+920
Willi
Castro
DETYes94Zack
Greinke
9.8%+920
Riley
Greene
DETYes94Zack
Greinke
9.8%+920
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes102Lance
McCullers
9.7%+925
Pavin
Smith
ARIYes102Lance
McCullers
9.7%+925
Jonathan
India
CINNo92Mitch
Keller
9.4%+965
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Corey
Kluber
9.3%+975
Sam
Haggerty
SEAYes96Jesus
Tinoco
9.2%+985
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo90Logan
Webb
9.2%+985
Elias
Diaz
COLNo90Logan
Webb
9.2%+985
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo98Carlos
Carrasco
9.2%+985
Lewin
Diaz
MIAYes95Carlos
Carrasco
9.1%+995
Michael
Taylor
KCYes99Joey
Wentz
9.1%+1005
Christian
Yelich
MILYes101Miles
Mikolas
8.9%+1025
Ildemaro
Vargas
WSHYes106Kyle
Muller
8.8%+1040
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo92Mitch
Keller
8.7%+1050
Spencer
Steer
CINNo92Mitch
Keller
8.7%+1050
Mickey
Moniak
LAAYes108James
Kaprielian
8.6%+1065
Livan
Soto
LAAYes108James
Kaprielian
8.6%+1065
Jonathan
Schoop
DETNo99Zack
Greinke
8.5%+1070
Thairo
Estrada
SFNo90German
Marquez
8.5%+1070
Jose
Siri
TBNo99Shane
Bieber
8.5%+1070
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes87Logan
Webb
8.4%+1085
Jason
Vosler
SFYes87German
Marquez
8.4%+1085
Ben
Gamel
PITYes95Hunter
Greene
8.4%+1090
Sam
Huff
TEXYes99Robbie
Ray
8.2%+1115
Tommy
Edman
STLYes101Adrian
Houser
8.1%+1140
Matt
Vierling
PHINo103Marcus
Stroman
8.0%+1145
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Zack
Wheeler
8.0%+1145
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDYes96Tyler
Anderson
8.0%+1150
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo101Zach
Davies
7.9%+1165
Austin
Hedges
CLENo99Corey
Kluber
7.7%+1190
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Corey
Kluber
7.7%+1190
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo99Michael
Wacha
7.7%+1190
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96Zack
Wheeler
7.7%+1200
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes96Marcus
Stroman
7.7%+1200

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