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Pitchers
Lance McCullers ($10,500)
At his highest salary this season, McCullers will take the mound against a Seattle Mariners' lineup with a 24.1% K-rate, a .333 weighted on-base average (wOBA), and a 71.3% contact rate in their last 707 plate appearances versus right-handers.
Since his return on August 13th, the Astros' starter has provided consistent production in eight starts, recording a 3.58 expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) rating, a 11.1% swinging strike rate, and a 25.6% K-percentage while his recent form in his last four appearances displays better metrics including a 2.87 xFIP and a 29.7% strikeout rate.
In a matchup versus five Mariners' batters with K-percentages ranging from 24.7% to 30.2% and contact rates lower than 72.3%, McCullers currently ranks third overall with a 32.4 FanDuel point projection and 6.02 expected strikeouts.
Triston McKenzie ($10,200)
After an impressive Wild Card outing including six shutout innings and eight strikeouts, McKenzie's FanDuel salary has increased to his third highest point this season versus a New York Yankees' team with a .325 wOBA, a 22.2% strikeout percentage, and a 38.6% hard hit rate.
In his largest sample size as a starting pitcher, the 25-year old accounted for his best overall season in 191.1 innings, producing a 3.77 xFIP, a 13.0% swinging strike rate, and a vastly improved 5.9% walk percentage while his recent starts since September indicates similar production with a 3.18 xFIP, a 3.3% walk rate, and a 27.3% strikeout percentage.
As numberFire's top rated pitcher with a 34.2 fantasy projection, McKenzie will likely need to reach Saturday''s highest strikeout prediction at 6.49 against five New York batters with K-rates above 21.8% and contact percentages between 65.3% and 73.3% in order to meet his lofty fantasy expectation.
Joe Musgrove ($9,600)
Despite producing seven scoreless innings in his Wild Card start last week, Musgrove's FanDuel salary stands at his lowest point this season against a Los Angeles Dodgers' unit with a 19.7% K-rate and a .344 wOBA.
When considering his previous success in this matchup (7 earned runs allowed in 17.0 innings, 23 strikeouts) and his stellar recent performances since September (3.91 xFIP, 25.7% K-rate), San Diego's veteran is an underrated option on Saturday with a 31.2 FanDuel point projection, a 3.25 value rating, and 5.82 strikeouts.
Charlie Morton ($8,300)
At his lowest FanDuel salary in the last three months, Atlanta's veteran will make his sixth start this season against a Philadelphia Phillies with a .316 wOBA and a 21.1% strikeout percentage versus right-handers.
While some may be concerned with Morton's lack of stamina past five innings and track record against his division rivals (16 earned runs in 26.1 innings, 26 strikeouts in 2022), the 38-year old still ranks second among today's pitchers with a 32.6 fantasy projection and 6.37 strikeouts and first in value with a 3.93 rating.
Stacks
Despite scoring just four runs in their last two games, Atlanta's offense ranks first overall with a 4.65 expected run total against Philadelphia's Noah Syndergaard.
Among Saturday's eight pitchers, Syndergaard ranks last in several key seasonal categories including Skill Interactive Earned Run Average (4.39), strikeout rate (17%), and swinging strike percentage (9%) while his recent form represents similar concerns with a 4.50 xFIP and an opposing 9.8% barrel percentage in his last 24.0 innings.
When evaluating his heavy reliance on keeping the ball on the ground (42.8%) and drastic splits versus the opposing side of the plate (4.91 xFIP, .325 wOBA. 12.2% K-rate), ideal Atlanta stacks should consist of fly-ball left-handed bats first including Matt Olson (41.2% fly-ball percentage, 13.6% barrel rate), Eddie Rosario (42.7% fly-ball percentage, 33.0% hard hit rate) and Michael Harris II (10.1% barrel rate) while Ronald Acuna (36.9% fly-ball percentage, 12.8% barrel rate), Dansby Swanson (39.5% fly-ball percentage, 10.8% barrel rate), Travis d'Arnaud (36.9% fly-ball percentage, 8.5% barrel rate) , and Austin Riley (36.5% fly-ball rate, 15.7% barrel percentage) stand as secondary choices.
In a matchup against Dodgers' southpaw Tyler Anderson, the Padres stand as an undervalued stack with Saturday's fourth overall run total at 3.63 versus a left-hander with expected metrics over one and a half runs higher (4.11 xFIP) than his 2.57 earned run average
To best attack his main weakness against right-handed bats (career 4.35 xFIP), Padres' combinations can include Manny Machado (9.8% barrel rate, .447 expected slugging), Brandon Drury (10.4% barrel rate, .420 expected slugging), Wil Myers (7.3% barrel rate), Austin Nola (.256 expected average), Jurickson Profar (.251 expected average), and Ha-Seong Kim (.250 expected average) while Juan Soto (12.4% barrel rate, .401 expected wOBA) still rates well enough to be mixed in despite batting from the left side.