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Pitchers
Gerrit Cole ($10,500)
After a 3.6% decrease to his lowest salary point in the last two months, Cole will make his third postseason start against a Houston Astros' team with a .303 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 21.7% K-rate versus right-handers this season.
Through 13.1 playoff innings in October, New York's 32-year old ace has been on point when it matters most, accounting for a 2.50 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP) and a 30.2% strikeout percentage while his career metrics versus Houston also indicate positivity with a 26.1% K-rate, an opposing expected .247 wOBA, and a .223 expected average.
As numberFire's top rated pitcher with a 36.6 FanDuel point projection and 7.33 expected strikeouts, Cole's success (2.69 xFIP) against right-handed bats should be effective versus seven batters hitting from that side including four with K-rates over 24.5% and contact rates lower than 70.5%.
Cristian Javier ($9,200)
At his lowest salary since July 1st, Houston's third-year pitcher will make his first career postseason start versus a New York Yankees' lineup with a .319 wOBA and a 22.9% strikeout percentage in this split this season.
While Javier's previous playoff experience consists of 21.1 innings working from the bullpen (4.61 xFIP, 38.2 K-rate), the 25-year old recorded his best season as a starter in his largest sample size, producing a 3.53 xFIP and a 33.2% K-rate in 148.2 innings.
In a matchup against four right-handed New York hitters with K-rates between 23.0% and 31.1% and contact rates ranging from 64.0% to 72.8%, Javier's impressive 36.6% career K-rate against the right side will play a key role in meeting his strikeout and fantasy expectation standing at 6.99 and 34.5 FanDuel points.
Stacks
Ranking first among today's teams with a 4.04 run total, the Phillies' offense has an exciting opportunity versus San Diego's veteran Mike Clevinger.
Through 114.1 innings during the regular season, the 31-year old accounted for a disappointing overall performance, recording a 4.76 xFIP and a career-worst 18.8% K-rate in 22 starts while his career postseason numbers include an ugly 6.26 xFIP in 15.2 innings.
With most of his recent struggles occurring against right-handed bats (5.00 xFIP, 15.2%), ideal Philadelphia stacks should first include Rhys Hoskins (11.1% barrel rate, .338 expected wOBA), J.T. Realmuto (.463 expected slugging, 11.3% barrel rate), and Alec Bohm (.290 expected average, .436 expected slugging) while Bryce Harper (12.8% barrel rate, .527 expected slugging) and Kyle Schwarber (20.1% barrel rate, .535 expected slugging) remain in play when analyzing Clevinger's trouble against power lefty hitters (15.5% home run / fly-ball ratio, 35.3% hard hit rate).
With Saturday's second highest run total at 3.96, the Padres will attempt to rebound from their underwhelming Game 3 offensive performance against Philadelphia's southpaw Bailey Falter.
In his largest sample size as a Major League starter, the 25-year old left-hander produced an average 4.13 xFIP and a 21.1% K-rate through 84.0 innings while right-handed bats were often the source of his struggles (.342 wOBA, 4.84 xFIP).
To best attack his troubling splits against the opposing side of the plate, San Diego combinations can focus on Manny Machado (9.8% barrel rate, .447 expected slugging), Brandon Drury (10.4% barrel rate, .420 expected slugging), Ha-Seong Kim (.250 expected average), Austin Nola (.256 expected average, 39.7% hard hit rate), and Jurickson Profar (.251 expected average).