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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
| Team | Opp SP | Opp | O/U | Moneyline | Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | Drew Rasmussen | TB | 7.5 | 245 | 2.88 |
| BAL | Nestor Cortes | NYY | 7.5 | 124 | 3.48 |
| MIA | Carlos Carrasco | NYM | 8 | 132 | 3.65 |
| CIN | Taijuan Walker | PHI | 8.5 | 158 | 3.7 |
| CLE | George Kirby | SEA | 8 | 106 | 3.87 |
| STL | Freddy Peralta | MIL | 8.5 | 132 | 3.88 |
| TEX | Jameson Taillon | CHC | 8 | -102 | 3.94 |
| HOU | Tyler Mahle | MIN | 8 | -106 | 3.98 |
| MIN | Hunter Brown | HOU | 8 | -110 | 4.02 |
| NYY | Tyler Wells | BAL | 7.5 | -146 | 4.02 |
| CHC | Jon Gray | TEX | 8 | -116 | 4.06 |
| SEA | Zach Plesac | CLE | 8 | -124 | 4.13 |
| DET | Kutter Crawford | BOS | 8.5 | -104 | 4.21 |
| CHW | Johan Oviedo | PIT | 8.5 | -108 | 4.25 |
| PIT | Michael Kopech | CHW | 8.5 | -108 | 4.25 |
| BOS | Matt Boyd | DET | 8.5 | -112 | 4.29 |
| NYM | Braxton Garrett | MIA | 8 | -156 | 4.35 |
| MIL | Jake Woodford | STL | 8.5 | -156 | 4.62 |
| TB | James Kaprielian | OAK | 7.5 | -300 | 4.62 |
| PHI | Connor Overton | CIN | 8.5 | -188 | 4.8 |
Pitchers
Drew Rasmussen ($10,500)
In a favorable opportunity versus an Oakland Athletics' lineup with a projected .277 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 24.7% K-rate against right-handers, Rasmussen is currently ranked third overall with a 30.7 fantasy projection after recording a promising 3.50 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP) and a 21.9% strikeout percentage in his last 29 starts.
With an effective 12.1% swinging strike rate and a heavy ground-ball percentage (46.8%), Tampa Bay's right-hander has all the ingredients to record a quality start versus five Oakland hitters with K-rates ranging from 22.2% to 33.8% and contact percentages under 73.5%.
Nestor Cortes ($10,000)
New York's entertaining left-hander is numberFire's second rated pitcher with a 32.4 fantasy expectation against a Baltimore Orioles' offense with a vulnerable .243 wOBA and a 28.8% K-rate in this split.
Despite recording a 4.78 xFIP in his first start this season, the 28-year old has been solid in his last 163.1 innings when observing his 3.67 xFIP, 11.1% swinging strike rate, and 3.52 Skill Interactive Earned Run Average (SIERA).
In an appealing spot against seven projected batters with strikeout percentages between 23.5% and 29.9% and contact rates under 76.8%, Cortes is second overall with 5.51 expected strikeouts.
Carlos Carrasco ($8,000)
At a salary ranked tenth among Sunday's pitchers, Carrasco is today's top ranked option with a 4.15 value rating and a 33.2 fantasy projection versus a Miami Marlins' unit with a .289 wOBA and a 23.8% against right-handers.
While his current 5.58 xFIP is somewhat concerning, New York's right-hander remains a viable option after examining his 23.5% K-rate and 3.51 xFIP in his last 30 starts.
Stacks
Despite averaging an underwhelming 3.25 runs in their first eight games, the Phillies are ranked first among today's slate with a 4.8 expected run total against Connor Overton.
In 37.1 innings since his Major League debut last season, the 29-year old right-hander appears due for some regression when comparing his 3.65 Earned Run Average to his 4.83 xFIP and 5.18 SIERA.
With most of his struggles occurring versus left-handed bats (5.70 xFIP, 10.9% walk percentage, .311 wOBA), Kyle Schwarber (15.5% career barrel rate, .366 career expected wOBA), Bryson Stott (36.2% hard hit rate), Jake Cave (10.9% career barrel rate), and Brandon Marsh (8.6% career barrel rate) rate best while Trea Turner (.283 career expected average) and J.T. Realmuto (7.7% career barrel rate, .269 expected average) are secondary options.
After a 11-run performance on Saturday, Tampa Bay will attempt to continue their red-hot winning streak versus Oakland's right-hander James Kaprielian.
Through 139.0 innings since 2022, Kaprielian has profiled as a below-average starter when analyzing his 5.05 xFIP, 10.2% walk percentage, and trouble against the opposing side of the plate (career .342 wOBA, 5.24 xFIP versus LHH).
To best attack his weaknesses, ideal Tampa Bay combinations should first include Brandon Lowe (14.1% career barrel rate, .352 expected wOBA), Luke Raley (14.3% barrel rate), Wander Franco (.283 expected average), and Josh Lowe (current 6.7% barrel rate) while Randy Arozarena (current 19.2% barrel rate, .329 expected average) deserves consideration with his recent form.
In a matchup against Jake Woodford, the Cardinals will challenge a low-strikeout right-hander with an underwhelming 15.8% K-rate and a 4.75 career xFIP .
With a slight lean towards left-handed bats (4.93 xFIP, .334 wOBA), Christian Yelich (career 9.5% barrel rate, .376 expected wOBA), Jesse Winker (8.0% barrel rate, expected .364 wOBA), Rowdy Tellez (12.3% barrel rate, .343 expected wOBA), Garrett Mitchell (13.7% barrel rate), and Brice Turang (6.3% barrel rate, .367 expected wOBA) all stand out as stacking options.