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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
| Team | Opp SP | Opp | O/U | Moneyline | Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | Seth Lugo | SD | 8 | 112 | 3.81 |
| PIT | Steven Matz | STL | 9 | 166 | 3.86 |
| KC | Bryce Elder | ATL | 8.5 | 118 | 4 |
| MIN | Domingo German | NYY | 8.5 | 118 | 4 |
| ARI | Braxton Garrett | MIA | 8.5 | 112 | 4.05 |
| OAK | Carlos Carrasco | NYM | 9.5 | 168 | 4.07 |
| DET | Anthony DeSclafani | SF | 9 | 136 | 4.08 |
| SD | Freddy Peralta | MIL | 8 | -132 | 4.19 |
| WSH | Zach Plesac | CLE | 9.5 | 148 | 4.21 |
| CHW | Kyle Gibson | BAL | 9 | 100 | 4.41 |
| MIA | Ryne Nelson | ARI | 8.5 | -132 | 4.45 |
| ATL | Kris Bubic | KC | 8.5 | -138 | 4.5 |
| NYY | Tyler Mahle | MIN | 8.5 | -138 | 4.5 |
| BAL | Michael Kopech | CHW | 9 | -118 | 4.59 |
| BOS | Tyler Anderson | LAA | 9.5 | 100 | 4.66 |
| CIN | Matt Strahm | PHI | 9.5 | -106 | 4.73 |
| PHI | Graham Ashcraft | CIN | 9.5 | -110 | 4.77 |
| LAA | Nick Pivetta | BOS | 9.5 | -118 | 4.84 |
| SF | Michael Lorenzen | DET | 9 | -162 | 4.92 |
| STL | Roansy Contreras | PIT | 9 | -198 | 5.14 |
| TB | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR | 10.5 | -104 | 5.2 |
| CLE | Chad Kuhl | WSH | 9.5 | -176 | 5.29 |
| TOR | Calvin Faucher | TB | 10.5 | -112 | 5.3 |
| NYM | Shintaro Fujinami | OAK | 9.5 | -200 | 5.43 |
Pitchers
Anthony DeSclafani ($9,900)
After recording an impressive 2.79 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP) and a 26.2% K-rate in his first two starts, DeSclafini will challenge a Detroit Tigers' lineup with a .272 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 25.4% strikeout percentage against right-handers in their last 330 plate appearances.
In a favorable matchup versus six Detroit hitters with K-rates between 25.1% and 33.0% and contact percentages under 74.7%, the 32-year old has a great opportunity to provide a ceiling return even at his highest salary point this season.
Seth Lugo ($9,200)
Despite a noticeable 21.0% salary jump, San Diego's right-hander deserves serious consideration versus a Milwaukee Brewers' offense with a vulnerable .290 wOBA and a 24.2% K-rate in this split.
Through 13.0 innings this season, Lugo has been solid in his return as a starting pitcher, producing a 3.46 xFIP, a 24.0% strikeout percentage, and a 9.4% swinging strike rate.
With five Milwaukee batters with strikeout rates between 23.7% and 38.1% and contact percentages ranging from 69.7% and 76.6%, the 33-year old is ranked third among Saturday's pitchers with a 5.23 strikeout projection and fifth overall with 29.4 expected FanDuel points.
Braxton Garrett ($7,700)
At a salary ranked 14th among his position, Miami's 25-year old starter is numberFire's top option with a 31.5 fantasy projection and a 4.1 value rating against an Arizona Diamondbacks' unit with a .275 wOBA and a 21.9% K-rate versus left-handers.
While his current 4.70 Earned Run Average can be a concerning metric, Garrett's production should see positive regression when examining his 2.97 xFIP this season and 3.46 xFIP in his last 95.2 innings.
Stacks
After a 17-run explosion on Friday , the Mets rank as today's top offense with a 5.43 expected run total against Oakland's rookie Shintaro Fujinami.
In his first two starts encountering Major League competition, the 29-year old has really struggled at the highest level of baseball, recording an ugly 8.69 xFIP and a 19.4% walk rate.
To best attack his troubling command and struggles against the left side of the plate (11.96 xFIP, .388 wOBA), ideal New York stacks should first include Francisco Lindor (current 9.4% barrel rate, .350 expected wOBA), Brandon Nimmo (.256 current expected average, .396 expected wOBA), Eduardo Escobar (career 7.3% barrel rate), and Dan Vogelbach (career 9.7% barrel rate, .341 expected wOBA) while Pete Alonso (current 19.5% barrel rate, .346 expected average) and Starling Marte (current 7.9% barrel rate, .289 expected average) should also be mixed in.
In a matchup versus Washington's veteran Chad Kuhl, the Guardians also rate as an elite stacking option with a 5.29 expected run total.
Through 147.0 innings since last season, Kuhl has provided below-average production when observing his 4.91 xFIP, 9.5% walk percentage, and trouble versus the opposing side of the plate (career .361 wOBA, 5.06 xFIP versus LHH).
With these main weaknesses in mind, Jose Ramirez (.273 career expected average, .450 expected slugging percentage), Josh Naylor (current 9.5% barrel rate, .285 expected average), Josh Bell (8.2% career barrel rate. .267 expected average), Will Brennan (career .279 expected average), and Andres Gimenez (current .261 expected average, .346 expected wOBA) rate best with their metrics from the left side.
Despite losing for the first time season last night, the Rays remain a top option in a bounce-back opportunity against Toronto's left-hander Yusei Kikuchi.
With most of his struggles occurring versus right-handed bats (4.49 xFIP, .366 wOBA), the top and middle part of Tampa Bay's lineup including Yandy Diaz (current .332 average, 17.9% barrel rate), Wander Franco (14.6% current barrel rate, .261 expected average), Randy Arozarena (15.9% current barrel rate, .282 expected average), Harold Ramirez (current 7.7% barrel average, .282 expected average), and Taylor Walls (.289 current expected average) all rate well with their recent form.