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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
| Team | Opp SP | Opp | O/U | Moneyline | Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Gerrit Cole | NYY | 7 | 142 | 3.14 |
| ARI | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | 7 | 116 | 3.31 |
| PIT | Miles Mikolas | STL | 8 | 146 | 3.56 |
| WSH | Shane Bieber | CLE | 9 | 205 | 3.63 |
| DET | Logan Webb | SF | 8 | 130 | 3.67 |
| MIA | Zac Gallen | ARI | 7 | -134 | 3.69 |
| BAL | Dylan Cease | CHW | 8 | 118 | 3.77 |
| KC | Kyle Wright | ATL | 8.5 | 136 | 3.85 |
| NYY | Pablo Lopez | MIN | 7 | -168 | 3.86 |
| CIN | Aaron Nola | PHI | 9 | 158 | 3.92 |
| TOR | Shane McClanahan | TB | 8.5 | 102 | 4.15 |
| CHW | Grayson Rodriguez | BAL | 8 | -138 | 4.23 |
| SF | Matt Boyd | DET | 8 | -154 | 4.33 |
| TB | Alek Manoah | TOR | 8.5 | -120 | 4.35 |
| STL | Mitch Keller | PIT | 8 | -174 | 4.44 |
| ATL | Zack Greinke | KC | 8.5 | -162 | 4.65 |
| LAA | Garrett Whitlock | BOS | 9.5 | -104 | 4.71 |
| BOS | Reid Detmers | LAA | 9.5 | -112 | 4.79 |
| PHI | Luis Cessa | CIN | 9 | -188 | 5.08 |
| CLE | Patrick Corbin | WSH | 9 | -250 | 5.37 |
Pitchers
Gerrit Cole ($11,300)
At his highest salary point this season, New York's right-hander rates as numberFire's third overall pitcher with a 36.2 fantasy projection against a Minnesota Twins' team with a .314 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and 22.4% K-rate.
In his last 19.1 innings, Cole has recorded similar metrics to his career form (3.14 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating), producing a 3.18 xFIP, a 31.0% K-rate, and 12.8% swinging strike percentage.
With five projected Minnesota hitters with K-rates ranging from 20.5% and 33.5% and contact percentages between 55.0% and 78.9%, the 32-year old rates as an elite option with Sunday's second highest strikeout prediction at 6.73.
Dylan Cease ($11,100)
Chicago's ace is another option to consider versus a Baltimore Orioles' lineup accounting for a .305 wOBA, a 23.3% K-rate, and a low 71.7% contact percentage.
Through three starts this season, Cease's production is trending towards several career-high metrics with his current 3.15 xFIP, 3.21 Skilled Interactive Earned Run Average, and a sizzling 34.8% K-rate.
While his inability to pitch deep into games (5.36 innings per start this season) and inconsistent command (10.1% walk rate) can promote some concern, the White Sox's fifth year starter has a good opportunity for a quality start versus a Orioles' unit with little patience (5.9% walk percentage) and four projected batters with K-rates over 25.0%.
Aaron Nola ($9,700)
At a salary ranked eighth among Sunday's pitchers, Nola is third among pitchers in value with a 3.69 value rating and a 35.8 fantasy projection versus a Cincinnati Reds' team with a vulnerable .276 wOBA and a 23.4% K-rate.
Despite recording a 7.04 Earned Run Average in three starts this season, the 29-year old should see some improvement in his metrics when analyzing his 3.89 xFIP and unlucky .383 Batting Average on Balls In Play (career .295).
In a potential bounce-back spot against five Reds' batters with strikeout percentages between 20.7% and 32.1% and contact rates under 78.0%, Nola is ranked fourth overall with 6.04 expected strikeouts.
Stacks
After scoring six runs in Washington as Saturday's top projected offense, the Guardians remain a strong option for stacking with a 5.3 run total against Patrick Corbin.
Despite picking up his first win in his last start, Corbin has accounted for ugly metrics in his past 166.2 innings, recording a 4.27 xFIP, a 17.5% K-rate, and an opposing 10.9% barrel percentage.
With most of his struggles occurring against right-handed bats (career .336 wOBA, .456 slugging), Jose Ramirez (current .294 expected average, .363 expected wOBA), Gabriel Arias (career 7.5% barrel rate), Josh Bell (career 8.2% barrel rate), Oscar Gonzalez (career 7.3% barrel rate, .276 expected average), and Mike Zunino (career 14.3% barrel rate) rate best for potential stacks.
In a mouth-watering opportunity against Luis Cessa, the Phillies' 5.08 run total appears undervalued against a well-below average right-hander with a 4.71 xFIP and a 15.7% K-rate in his last 11 starts.
To ideally attack Cessa's strong overall ground-ball tendencies (47.1%), Philadelphia stacks should feature their top fly-ball or power batters including Kyle Schwarber (52.9% fly-ball percentage, 17.5% current barrel rate), Nick Castellanos (36.9% fly-ball percentage, career 10.5% barrel rate), J.T. Realmuto (34.8% fly-ball percentage, 7.7% career barrel rate), and Jake Cave (45.3% fly-ball percentage, 10.8% barrel rate) while Trea Turner (career 6.8% barrel rate, .284 expected average), Alec Bohm (7.4% career barrel rate, .280 expected average), and Brandon Marsh (8.7% career barrel rate) are secondary options.
Riding high off their 9-run explosion last night, the Red Sox will attempt to exceed their 4.79 run total against another Angels' lefty Reid Detmers.
With an outstanding weakness against the opposing side of the plate (career 4,65 xFIP, .321 wOBA) and overall lack of command (9.1%), Boston's combinations should their top right-handed bats including Justin Turner (8.0% career barrel rate, 9.4% walk percentage), Robert Refsnyder (current 9.5% barrel rate, 9.2% walk percentage) and Enrique Hernandez (6.7% career barrel rate, 15.4% walk percentage) while Christian Arroyo (.251 career expected average), and Connor Wong (11.5% career barrel rate) rate as viable value options.