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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
| Team | Opp SP | Opp | O/U | Moneyline | Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | Luis Castillo | SEA | 7.5 | 140 | 3.37 |
| DET | Kyle Gibson | BAL | 8 | 150 | 3.53 |
| OAK | Andrew Heaney | TEX | 9 | 190 | 3.72 |
| BOS | Wade Miley | MIL | 8.5 | 110 | 4.07 |
| SEA | Miles Mikolas | STL | 7.5 | -166 | 4.13 |
| KC | Tyler Anderson | LAA | 9.5 | 150 | 4.19 |
| ATL | Framber Valdez | HOU | 8.5 | -104 | 4.21 |
| HOU | Kyle Wright | ATL | 8.5 | -112 | 4.29 |
| ARI | Joe Musgrove | SD | 9.5 | 124 | 4.41 |
| MIL | Garrett Whitlock | BOS | 8.5 | -130 | 4.43 |
| BAL | Joey Wentz | DET | 8 | -178 | 4.47 |
| SD | Merrill Kelly | ARI | 9.5 | -146 | 5.09 |
| TEX | Shintaro Fujinami | OAK | 9 | -230 | 5.28 |
| LAA | Zack Greinke | KC | 9.5 | -178 | 5.31 |
Pitchers
Luis Castillo ($11,000)
After a 4.7% salary increase to his highest salary this season, Seattle's right-hander will challenge a St. Louis Cardinals' lineup with a .343 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 20.4% K-rate in their last 411 plate appearances in this split.
In his last four starts, Castillo has been performed at a top level, accounting for a sparkling 2.86 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP), a 2.32 expected Earned Run Average, and a 29.5% strikeout percentage.
With an impressive 15.3% swinging strike rate, Castillo's slate-high 6.2 strikeout prediction will mostly depend on his matchup against five Cardinals' batters with K-rates between 20.9% and 31.3% and contact percentages ranging from 67.5% to 76.3%.
Framber Valdez ($10,000)
In a matchup versus an Atlanta Braves' offense with a .318 wOBA and a 24.6% K-rate against left-handers, Houston's Framber Valdez ranks second among Saturday's pitchers with a 32.9 fantasy projection.
Since March 30th, the 29-year old southpaw has replicated his career metrics (3.41 xFIP, 23.0% K-rate) with a 3.23 xFIP and a 24.5% strikeout percentage through 25.0 innings this season.
While Atlanta has displayed some patience (12.5% projected walk percentage) in this split, Valdez still has an opportunity to provide an efficient performance versus five hitters with K-rates higher than 23.2% and contact rates between 62.6% and 77.3%.
Andrew Heaney ($8,900)
Even at his highest salary this season, the Rangers' veteran is another option to consider with a 28.1% K-rate and a 28.8 fantasy projection versus an Oakland Athletics' team with an overall .304 wOBA and a 70.0% contact rate.
With today's second highest strikeout prediction at 5.7, Heaney has several opportunities to exceed his expected number versus five projected batters with K-rates over 25.0% and contact rates lower than 73.5%.
Stacks
Despite averaging a disappointing 2.33 runs in their last three games, the Angels are ranked as Saturday's top offense with a 5.31 expected run total against Kansas City's Zack Greinke.
In his most recent 137.0 innings, the 39-year old right-hander has accounted for below-average metrics, recording a 4.54 xFIP, a 12.5% strikeout percentage, and a 6.8% opposing barrel rate.
With overall neutral splits and a heavy reliance on ground-balls (41.3%), Los Angeles' ideal stacks should feature their best fly-ball power hitters including Taylor Ward (42.4% fly-ball percentage, 10.2% career barrel rate), Mike Trout (55.7% fly-ball percentage, 16.3% career barrel rate), Shohei Ohtani (16.7% career barrel rate), Hunter Renfroe (46.8% fly-ball percentage, 11.9% barrel rate), and Anthony Rendon (career 7.9% barrel rate, 42.9% fly-ball percentage).
After producing 41 runs in five games this week, the Rangers' red-hot bats will attempt to continue their momentum versus Oakland's rookie Shintaro Fujinami.
To best capture his trouble against right-handed power (6.08 xFIP, .381 wOBA), Adolis Garcia (10.7% barrel rate), Josh Jung (8.3% barrel rate), and Marcus Semien (6.2% barrel rate) should be included first while Nathaniel Lowe (.276 expected average), Travis Jankowski (.292 expected average), and Jonah Heim (,286 expected average, 13.5% barrel rate) can also be mixed in when observing their recent form.
Even after yesterday's underwhelming two run output, the Orioles' offense offers a rebound opportunity with a 4.47 expected run total against a below-average lefty in Joey Wentz.
Through his most recent 45.1 innings, the young left-hander has struggled in his past ten starts, recording a 4.86 xFIP, a 10.1% walk percentage, and a 9.2% swinging strike rate.
With his biggest weakness occurring versus right-handed bats (5.08 xFIP), the top and middle of Baltimore's batting order are ideal targets including Austin Hays (.318 current expected average, 21.6% barrel rate), Adley Rutschman (.288 current expected average, 8.6% barrel rate), Ryan Mountcastle (19.0% barrel rate, .303 expected average), and Anthony Santander (8.9% barrel rate) while Jorge Mateo (.298 expected average) is a viable option at shortstop if he is able to return to the Orioles' lineup.