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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
| Team | Opp SP | Opp | O/U | Moneyline | Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | Corbin Burnes | MIL | 8 | 128 | 3.68 |
| STL | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 8 | 120 | 3.74 |
| NYY | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | 8.5 | 118 | 4 |
| LAD | Jordan Montgomery | STL | 8 | -142 | 4.26 |
| CHW | Calvin Faucher | TB | 9 | 114 | 4.27 |
| MIL | Reid Detmers | LAA | 8 | -152 | 4.32 |
| TEX | Jhony Brito | NYY | 8.5 | -138 | 4.5 |
| TB | Lance Lynn | CHW | 9 | -134 | 4.73 |
| ARI | Noah Davis | COL | 12.5 | -108 | 6.25 |
| COL | Tommy Henry | ARI | 12.5 | -108 | 6.25 |
Pitchers
Clayton Kershaw ($10,800)
Despite a 3.8% increase to his highest salary point this season, the Dodgers' left-hander is numberFire's top pitcher with a 34.9 fantasy projection versus a St. Louis Cardinals' lineup with a 20.0% K-rate and a .385 on-base average in 175 plate appearances in this split.
Through five starts this season, Kershaw has been in prime form in 31.0 innings, producing a 3.13 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP), a 26.4% K-rate, and a 13.9% swinging strike percentage.
In a matchup against five hitters with K-rates between 20.0% and 39.1% and contact percentages under 75.4%, the veteran is ranked second among tonight's slate in strikeouts with a 6.44 prediction.
Corbin Burnes ($10,300)
At his most expensive salary this season, Milwaukee's hard-throwing right-hander will take the mound against a Los Angeles Angels' offense with a .328 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 21.9% K-rate in their last 354 plate appearances.
In his third season as a full-time starter, Burnes has struggled through 27.2 innings when comparing his current 4.37 xFIP, 11.0% swinging strike percentage, and 19.5% K-rate with his career metrics (2.89 xFIP, 19.5% K-rate, 15.5% swinging strike percentage).
While his current form is somewhat concerning, the 28-year old remains highly rated on Saturday, ranking first in expected strikeouts with a 6.53 prediction and second in fantasy production (34.1 expected FanDuel points).
Nathan Eovaldi ($8,500)
With Coors Field on tonight's main slate, the Rangers' veteran is an intriguing salary-saving option with a 3.24 xFIP and a 26.3% strikeout rate in 27.2 innings this season.
In a revenge matchup against a New York Yankees' lineup potentially missing Aaron Judge, Eovaldi currently ranks third in value with a 3.26 rating and fifth overall with a 27.7 FanDuel point projection.
Stacks
Despite a disappointing offensive showing in the first game of this series, the Rockies will attempt to reach their 6.25 run total versus Arizona's lefty Tommy Henry.
Through 51.1 career innings in the Majors, Henry has accounted for ugly metrics with an unsightly 5.27 xFIP, a 11.1% walk percentage, and an opposing 8.8% barrel rate.
With most of his trouble occurring versus right-handed bats (5.42 xFIP, 12.8% walk percentage), C.J. Cron (15.9% current barrel rate), Kris Bryant (.271 expected average, .332 expected wOBA), Elias Diaz (.263 expected average), and Randal Grichuk can be used in potential stacks while Ryan McMahon (19.6% barrel rate, .370 expected wOBA) and Charlie Blackmon (.364 expected wOBA, .261 expected average) can still be mixed in despite hitting from the left side.
After a nine run explosion on Friday night, Arizona's emerging offense has another premier opportunity against Colorado's right-hander Noah Davis.
While the 26-year old has displayed some strikeout production in the minors (25.9% K-rate in 133.1 Double-A innings during 2022), Davis has struggled with his command on every level (11.7% in AAA this season, 10.2% in AA during 2022) including a 8.3% walk percentage in 10.2 Major League innings.
When considering his overall profile and struggles, ideal Arizona combinations should first feature their most patient power hitters including Evan Longoria (8.6% barrel rate), Corbin Carroll .352 expected wOBA, 11.1% barrel rate), Emmanuel Rivera (14.3% barrel rate), Pavin Smith (.391 expected wOBA, 12.0% barrel rate), and Christian Walker (9.6% career walk rate, 10.1% barrel percentage) while Josh Rojas (10.4% career walk rate, .240 expected average)and Alek Thomas (.273 current expected average) are secondary options.
Lance Lynn will take the hill for his sixth appearance this season versus a Tampa Bay Rays' lineup with an underestimated 4.73 run expectation.
Through 26.1 innings, the veteran has overall performed at a below-average level, allowing a career-worst 9.0% barrel rate while also recording a subpar 6.41 expected Earned Run Average.
Due to his struggles with left-handed hitters, Brandon Lowe (.380 expected wOBA, 24.0% barrel rate), Wander Franco (.279 expected average, 10.3% barrel rate), Josh Lowe (9.1% barrel rate, .280 expected average), and Luke Raley (22.9% barrel rate) form a potential unique stack with Coors Field attracting so much attention on tonight's five-game slate.