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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
| Team | Opp SP | Opp | O/U | Moneyline | Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Spencer Strider | ATL | 8 | 194 | 3.28 |
| MIL | Alex Cobb | SF | 8.5 | 140 | 3.82 |
| LAD | Blake Snell | SD | 8.5 | 106 | 4.11 |
| TEX | Reid Detmers | LAA | 8.5 | 104 | 4.13 |
| HOU | Marco Gonzales | SEA | 8.5 | -104 | 4.21 |
| SEA | J.P. France | HOU | 8.5 | -112 | 4.29 |
| LAA | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | 8.5 | -122 | 4.37 |
| SD | Dustin May | LAD | 8.5 | -124 | 4.39 |
| OAK | Brady Singer | KC | 10 | 150 | 4.41 |
| BOS | Bailey Falter | PHI | 9.5 | 122 | 4.43 |
| WSH | Tommy Henry | ARI | 9.5 | 118 | 4.47 |
| SF | Colin Rea | MIL | 8.5 | -166 | 4.68 |
| ATL | Kyle Bradish | BAL | 8 | -235 | 4.72 |
| ARI | MacKenzie Gore | WSH | 9.5 | -138 | 5.03 |
| PHI | Corey Kluber | BOS | 9.5 | -144 | 5.07 |
| KC | Ken Waldichuk | OAK | 10 | -178 | 5.59 |
Pitchers
Spencer Strider ($11,400)
After a 3.3% salary decrease, Atlanta's hard throwing right-hander is Saturday's top rated pitcher with a 40.5 fantasy projection against a Baltimore Orioles' lineup with a 24.2% K-rate and a .306 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
Through six starts this season, Strider has warranted today's top ranking with his premier form through 35.0 innings, producing an impressive 2.93 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP), a 19.0% swinging strike rate, and nine or more more strikeouts in 83% of his recent appearances.
In a matchup versus five Baltimore hitters with strikeout percentages ranging between 22.8% to 30.6% and contact percentages under 73.7%, the 24-year old has an enormous ceiling when analyzing his slate-high 7.68 strikeout projection in 6.24 expected innings.
Alex Cobb ($8,300)
At a salary ranked sixth among pitchers, Cobb is second overall with a 34.0 FanDuel projection and first in value with a 4.09 rating versus a Milwaukee Brewers' offense with an unimposing .294 wOBA and a 25.6% K-rate in their last 328 plate appearances against right-handers.
In his most recent six appearances, the veteran has recorded underrated production with a 2.98 xFIP in 33.1 innings while allowing two or less earned runs in five of his starts.
With today's third highest strikeout prediction at 5.73, Cobb should have numerous chances to surpass his expected number versus seven projected batters with K-rates over 24.3% and contact metrics below 76.8%.
Stacks
After scoring 31 runs in their last four games, Kansas City's red-hot offense has another opportunity to produce versus Oakland left-hander Ken Waldichuk.
In his second Major League stint, the 25-year old has been lit up through 31.0 innings, accounting for an ugly 5.47 xFIP, a low 17.4% strikeout percentage, and a generous 8.3% walk rate.
With obvious trouble against right-handed bats (5.04 xFIP, .405 wOBA), Royals' correlations can be built around Salvador Perez (.271 current expected average, 9.4% barrel rate), Edward Olivares (10.5% barrel rate, .298 expected average), Bobby Witt Jr. (.468 expected slugging percentage, 11.8% barrel rate), and Maikel Garcia (12.5% barrel rate).
In an appealing opportunity against Corey Kluber, the Phillies are in a great spot with a 5.07 expected run total against a low-strikeout right-hander with a shaky 5.40 xFIP and a troubling 11.1% opposing barrel rate.
To best attack his struggles versus the opposing side of the plate (4.02 xFIP against LHH in 2022, 5.49 xFIP in 2023), Bryce Harper (12.9% career barrel rate), Kyle Schwarber (11.4% current barrel rate), Brandon Marsh (11.3% current barrel rate), and Bryson Stott (.274 expected average) are top targets while Nick Castellanos (.292 current expected average, 11.1% barrel rate) and J.T. Realmuto (7.4% current barrel rate, .259 expected average) deserve consideration with their recent form.
Despite last night's disappointing offensive performance, Atlanta has a great spot to exceed their 4.72 expected run total versus Baltimore's right-hander Kyle Bradish.
Through 132.1 career innings, the 26-year old can be characterized as an-average MLB starter, when examining his 4.03 xFIP, 9.1% walk rate, and 9.9% swinging strike percentage.
When analyzing his unique reverse splits (4.11 xFIP, .354 wOBA), Atlanta's right-handed bats should be featured first including Ronald Acuna (.349 current expected average, 15.0% barrel rate), Austin Riley (.412 expected slugging percentage), Sean Murphy (.320 expected average, 25.4% barrel rate), and Marcell Ozuna (13.0% barrel rate) while Ozzie Albies (.305 expected average, 13.6% barrel rate) still rates a top option at second base despite batting from the left side.