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Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!
Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
| Team | Opp SP | Opp | O/U | Moneyline | Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | Framber Valdez | HOU | 8 | 265 | 3 |
| PIT | Luis Castillo | SEA | 7.5 | 180 | 3.15 |
| SF | Corbin Burnes | MIL | 7.5 | -104 | 3.72 |
| MIL | Logan Webb | SF | 7.5 | -112 | 3.78 |
| LAD | Tyler Glasnow | TB | 8 | 102 | 3.9 |
| PHI | Charlie Morton | ATL | 8.5 | 116 | 4.02 |
| TB | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 8 | -120 | 4.1 |
| TEX | Dean Kremer | BAL | 9 | 108 | 4.33 |
| SEA | Vince Velasquez | PIT | 7.5 | -215 | 4.35 |
| ATL | Zack Wheeler | PHI | 8.5 | -136 | 4.48 |
| KC | Josiah Gray | WSH | 9 | -108 | 4.5 |
| WSH | Brady Singer | KC | 9 | -108 | 4.5 |
| BAL | Andrew Heaney | TEX | 9 | -126 | 4.67 |
| HOU | Hogan Harris | OAK | 8 | -320 | 5 |
Pitchers
Framber Valdez ($11,600)
After recording a complete game shutout against Oakland in his last start, Valdez's salary has jumped 3.5% to his highest point this season versus an offense with a .287 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 20.8% K-rate against left-handers.
In 66.0 innings this season, the 29-year old has improved upon his breakout metrics in 2022, accounting for a career-best 2.52 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP) and a 27.6% strikeout percentage while lowering his walk rate to 4.6%.
When evaluating his elite recent form and personal success in this matchup, there are plenty of reasons to believe the Astros' southpaw should be able to reach or surpass his expectations including Saturday's second highest projection standing at 38.8 FanDuel points and 6.03 strikeouts.
Luis Castillo ($10,800)
At his highest salary this month, Seattle's right-hander will take the mound at home against a Pittsburgh Pirates' lineup with a .268 wOBA and a 22.4% K-rate in their last 475 plate appearances in this split.
After producing solid numbers in the first two months of the season (3.27 xFIP, 28.1% K-rate), Castillo has maintained his steady form in May, recording a 3.51 xFIP, a 15.0% swinging strike rate, and six or more strikeouts in 75% of his four starts.
In an appealing matchup against five Pittsburgh hitters with K-rates ranging from 22.1% to 30.6% and contact percentages under 75.7%, the 30-year old is ranked as numberFire's top pitcher with a 40.0 fantasy projection and 7.28 strikeouts in 6.1 expected innings.
Zack Wheeler ($9,500)
Despite a tough spot versus an Atlanta Braves' team with a .331 wOBA and a 22.5% K-rate, Philadelphia's veteran is fourth among his position with a 35.3 fantasy projection and third in value with a 3.71 rating.
While his 4.11 Earned Run Average through 57.0 innings is somewhat concerning, Wheeler deserves some consideration when examining his underrated 3.65 xFIP, 12.6% swinging strike percentage, and 26.1% K-rate.
Stacks
Hogan Harris will make his first Major League start at home in a very difficult matchup against a Houston offense ranked first among today's offenses with a 5.0 expected run total.
While Harris MLB resume is limited, his Triple-A metrics the past two seasons including a 6.32 xFIP in 31.0 innings and 5.01 xFIP in 28.1 innings during 2022 suggest the journeyman is likely a below-average pitcher on this level.
To best attack his profile, Houston combinations should feature their most patient power hitters to combat Harris' inconsistent command (14.7% walk rate in 2023, 12.9% walk rate in 2022) and power issues (11.8% home run to fly-ball ratio, 21.4% in 2022) including Yordan Alvarez (.426 expected wOBA, 18.8% barrel rate), Kyle Tucker (9.3% barrel rate, .388 expected wOBA), Alex Bregman (.337 expected wOBA, .414 expected slugging), Jose Altuve (.372 career expected wOBA, .448 expected slugging), and Jose Abreu (.353 career expected wOBA, 9.7% barrel rate).
After scoring ten runs on Friday night, the Royals are a potential underrated stack with a 4.5 expected run total against Washington's right-hander Josiah Gray.
Through 57.2 inning this season, the 25-year old is due for serious regression when comparing his current metrics (2.65 Earned Run Average, 80.5% left on-base percentage) with his expected numbers and career production (4.94 xFIP, 85.3% left on-base percentage).
With wild command (11.3% walk rate) and trouble versus left-handed bats (5.73 xFIP, .371 wOBA), Vinnie Pasquantino (.367 expected wOBA, 8.4% barrel rate), MJ Melendez (12.6% barrel rate), Nick Pratto (7.1% barrel rate, .336 expected wOBA), Drew Waters (12.1% career barrel rate), and Michael Massey (9.0% barrel rate) are elite options while Salvador Perez (.361 expected wOBA, 11.9% barrel rate) and Bobby Witt Jr. (12.0% barrel rate, .338 expected wOBA) can also be mixed in.
In an appealing spot against Brady Singer, the Nationals present several options against a struggling starter with a 4.76 xFIP, a 14.3% home run to fly-ball ratio, and an eye-popping 11.7% opposing barrel rate.
Ideal Washington stacks should involve their lefty bats to take advantage of Singer's struggles versus the opposing side of the plate (4.21 xFIP, 9.6% walk rate) including Luis Garcia (.297 expected average, 471 expected slugging), Keibert Ruiz (.282 expected average, .457 expected slugging), Corey Dickerson (7.1% career barrel rate), Dominic Smith (7.3% barrel rate), and Jeimer Candelario (7.3% barrel rate).