MLB Betting Guide for Monday 6/12/23: Will the Snakes Bite the Phillies' Bullpen?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Colorado Rockies at Boston Red Sox
Over 9.5 (-115)
"The Big Maple" is having a year, but this number is still more than fair for two porous pitching staffs at Fenway Park.
James Paxton has outperformed all expectations with Boston this season -- including that of his park. It's not often you'll see a Red Sox pitcher with a better ERA (3.81) than expected ERA (3.91 xERA) in these conditions, and he's striking out 33.0% of the batters he faced. However, Paxton's hard-hit rate allowed (42.0%) is a bit of a concern in the offensive funhouse.
The Rockies will counter with Connor Seabold, whose 4.99 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), 16.7% strikeout rate, and 46.7% flyball rate allowed indeed look like a struggling pitcher who draws half his starts at Coors Field. He'll be tasked to stop Boston's sizzling lineup against righties (.752 OPS) tonight.
Paxton's presence has resulted in an otherwise-low total here, but these are two bottom-10 bullpens by xFIP. We could hit double digits even in a quality effort from him, but if he's off the mark, this contrarian over could cruise. Boston could also hit 10 themselves against the waffling Seabold.
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals ML (+108)
I'm still a believer in Matthew Liberatore given the right spots.
He's been lit up by the Dodgers and Rangers, who are a pair of teams accustomed to doing that, in recent starts. However, Liberatore's debut against the Brewers (77 wRC+ versus lefties) was five innings of scoreless ball. Between the Giants' 94 wRC+ against lefties and their 26.3% strikeout rate in the split, this is the high-whiff lefty's best matchup since that debut.
The Gigantes will have Logan Webb rolling on the other side, and Webb's 3.68 xERA is still pretty tidy despite flunking at Coors Field last week. St. Louis is just much more comfortable in this split with a 108 wRC+ against righties (sixth-best in MLB).
In this particular matchup, the Cards (37.0% flyball rate versus righties) haven't been super reliant on the long ball, which should help against Webb's usual 58.6% groundball rate. I like the home side's chances in a lower-scoring affair.
Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Phillies ML (-110)
I see this as today's play of the day.
FanDuel Sportsbook is showing quite a bit of action on the Diamondbacks' runline, which likely does translate to the moneyline in this pick 'em. I don't know how it is one.
In a battle of southpaws, neither Philadelphia nor Arizona has particularly thrived in the split; the Snakes are 14th in OPS (.750), and the Phils are 20th (.714). There's just a massive discrepancy in the quality of lefties taking the bump.
With a maximum of 41 pitches since May 2nd, Matt Strahm likely won't pitch incredibly long into this game, but he should be effective for as long as he goes. His 3.01 SIERA and 32.5% strikeout rate are phenomenal, and he'll eventually give way to a Phillies bullpen with a middle-of-the-pack xFIP (4.19).
For Arizona, Tommy Henry should strive for "middle of the pack." Henry's 5.58 SIERA, 14.6% strikeout rate, and 46.4% flyball rate all seem like a guy ripe to be shelled at one of baseball's best hitter's parks.
As winners of 11 of their last 13 games, the public should continue to ride the D-Backs, but all good things come to an end, and Henry's unsettling profile provides an obvious path for it to happen.
