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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
| Team | Opp SP | Opp | O/U | Moneyline | Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Louie Varland | MIN | 8 | 176 | 3.5 |
| CHW | Bryce Miller | SEA | 8 | 140 | 3.6 |
| COL | Charlie Morton | ATL | 9.5 | 250 | 3.62 |
| PIT | Freddy Peralta | MIL | 8.5 | 138 | 3.84 |
| WSH | Jesus Luzardo | MIA | 9 | 132 | 4.11 |
| CIN | Ronel Blanco | HOU | 9 | 130 | 4.13 |
| CHC | Dean Kremer | BAL | 8.5 | 102 | 4.15 |
| TOR | Jon Gray | TEX | 9 | 108 | 4.33 |
| BAL | Jameson Taillon | CHC | 8.5 | -120 | 4.35 |
| SEA | Lance Lynn | CHW | 8 | -166 | 4.4 |
| MIN | Reese Olson | DET | 8 | -210 | 4.5 |
| KC | Tyler Anderson | LAA | 9.5 | 108 | 4.57 |
| STL | Carlos Carrasco | NYM | 9.5 | 108 | 4.57 |
| MIL | Luis Ortiz | PIT | 8.5 | -164 | 4.66 |
| TEX | Chris Bassitt | TOR | 9 | -126 | 4.67 |
| HOU | Luke Weaver | CIN | 9 | -154 | 4.87 |
| MIA | Patrick Corbin | WSH | 9 | -156 | 4.89 |
| LAA | Zack Greinke | KC | 9.5 | -126 | 4.93 |
| NYM | Matthew Liberatore | STL | 9.5 | -126 | 4.93 |
| ATL | Chase Anderson | COL | 9.5 | -310 | 5.88 |
Pitchers
Charlie Morton ($10,200)
Despite producing 41.0 FanDuel points and eight strikeouts in his last start, Morton's salary did not move versus a Colorado Rockies' offense with a .308 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 23.7% K-rate against right-handers in their past 1541 plate appearances.
In his most recent 27.2 innings, Morton has provided steady production on the mound, accounting for a solid 3.83 expected Independent Fielding Pitching rating (xFIP), an efficient 13.6% swinging strike rate, and eight or more strikeouts in 60% of his starts.
While his command has been a little inconsistent at times this season (10.0% walk rate), the veteran is rated as Sunday's clear top option at his position by almost ten points with a 41.5 fantasy projection and a 7.3 strikeout prediction versus six hitters with K-rates over 23.8%.
Freddy Peralta ($9,900)
At his second highest salary during June, Milwaukee right-hander will take the mound at home against a Pittsburgh Pirates' lineup with a .304 wOBA and a 23.4% K-rate after he produced a 4.31 xFIP and a 23.7% K-rate in his last eight starts.
As numberFire's fourth rated pitcher with a 30.2 FanDuel point projection and 5.45 expected strikeouts, Peralta has a underrated spot to exceed his expectations against six batters with strikeout percentages ranging from 20.4% to 30.3% and weighted on-base averages under .290.
Jesus Luzardo ($9,500)
In a matchup versus a Washington Nationals with a .274 wOBA and five batters with K-rates above 20.4%, Miami's left-hander ranks third overall with a 31.8 fantasy projection at his lowest salary this month.
When considering his recent 2.94 xFIP and 29.2% K-rate in his last three appearances and today's third highest strikeout expectation at 6.05, there are plenty reasons to believe Luzardo offers today's best combination of value and ceiling.
Stacks
Riding high off their ten run performance on Saturday afternoon, Atlanta's offense will attempt to surpass their slate-high 5.88 run expectation against Colorado's right-hander Chase Anderson.
Through six starts this season despite recording a 2.72 Earned Run Average, the veteran is due for a massive blow-up when evaluating his unsustainable 92.0% left-on base percentage, 4.59 xFIP, and.235 batting average on balls in play (.279 career average).
Ideal Atlanta stacks should contain their top right-handed bats to best attack his unique reverse splits (4.67 xFIP, 15.4% K-rate) including Ronald Acuna Jr. (.458 expected wOBA, 16.0% barrel rate), Austin Riley (9.2% barrel rate, .339 expected wOBA), Travis d'Arnaud (.362 expected wOBA, 9.3% barrel rate), Marcell Ozuna (.374 expected wOBA, 15.1% barrel rate), and Orlando Arcia (.344 expected wOBA, 7.9% barrel rate).
In an undervalued spot versus Luis Ortiz, the Brewers should have plenty opportunities to produce runs against a low strikeout right-hander with an ugly 5.24 xFIP.
With an obvious inability to get outs versus left-handed bats and lack of command (11.3% walk percentage), Ortiz's troubles play right into the strength of Milwaukee's batting order including Christian Yelich (10.4% barrel rate, .370 expected wOBA), Jesse Winker (.355 career expected wOBA, 7.7% barrel rate), Rowdy Tellez (9.8% barrel rate), and Raimel Tapia (5.7% barrel rate, 35.7% hard hit percentage) while
Matthew Liberatore will make his 13th career start versus an underrated New York Mets' team ranked second among Sunday's main slate with a 4.93 expected run total.
In his second season pitching in the Majors, the 23-year old has struggled to a 5.19 xFIP through 21.0 innings including a troublesome 16.3% strikeout percentage and a 10.2% walk rate.
To best attack his outstanding weakness against the right side of the plate (.403 expected wOBA, 5.17 xFIP), New York stacks should feature Pete Alonso (.405 expected wOBA, 16.9% barrel rate), Tommy Pham (.391 expected wOBA, 16.2% barrel rate), Francisco Alvarez (10.6% barrel rate), Francisco Lindor (.331 expected wOBA, 11.0% barrel rate), and Starling Marte (.267 expected average).