Monday's six-game slate comes with an obvious chalk pitcher and obvious chalk stack. Navigating around them is mostly impossible, but there are still other spots for upside.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
There's a pretty easy place to start here.
That's Spencer Strider ($11,300), who has been an undeniable figure in daily fantasy all season thanks to his gigantic 39.0% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, in some recent starts, Strider's historical issues with an elevated flyball rate (48.9% this season) and hard-hit rate allowed (39.0%) have got the best of him, but his matchup today helps considerably.
He'll draw a Twins lineup with a league-high 27.1% strikeout rate against righties. Considering he did bounce back in his last effort against the Phillies, there's a tangible floor of punchies that makes Strider the top guy on the slate by a mile.
Behind him, Luis Castillo ($10,600) has a floor that comes from his opponent. Washington has just an 86 wRC+ and .127 isolated power (ISO) against righties, but they don't strike out much (18.5% rate). Castillo's 15.2% swinging-strike rate might bring some whiffs out of them, but the Nats have only ceded double-digit punchouts to a starter once this year.
Strider's presence in an elite matchup does hamper the alternatives quite a bit. Sonny Gray, entering with seven straight starts under 30 FanDuel points, has to deal with the potent sticks on the Braves' side of that one, and Chicago's Dylan Cease -- though turning the corner himself -- also has a brute with Angels on the road.
They're also above $9,000. Opposing Cease, you could justify Reid Detmers ($8,500) at home against Cease's White Sox. Detmers' 28.2% strikeout rate is massive for someone in this tier, and the Pale Hose are a pretty bland matchup for southpaws, holding a 23.2% strikeout rate (12th-highest) and .717 OPS (12th-lowest) in the split.
Finally, Justin Verlander ($8,100) has been in poor form this year, but his velocity is back within shouting distance of his 2022 mark, so it could turn at any moment. His 44.9% hard-hit rate allowed is definitely concerning, and the K juice hasn't been there (20.1% strikeout rate), but today's matchup could change his fortunes.
Milwaukee has a bottom-five mark against righties in wRC+ (87) and strikeout rate (24.1%), so this could be a get-right spot all week for the Mets' right-hand-dominant rotation. There's dodgy weather to note here, though.
Hitting Breakdown
In cash games, there are two standout spots today well above the rest.
The Texas Rangers -- solely due to weather issues -- sit at the top of today's list with a 5.28 implied team total. They'll draw Matt Boyd and the Detroit Tigers on the road. Behind a 4.22 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), Boyd hasn't been awful, but he's still ceding way too many flyballs (43.0% rate) and homers (1.28 HR/9) when drawing Texas in their building.
Righties have a wOBA that is 101 percentage points higher than lefties against Boyd, so it's a day to bump up Adolis Garcia ($3,900), Marcus Semien ($3,800), and Josh Jung ($3,400) relative to their teammates. Jonah Heim ($3,200) will also work as a switch hitter.
If not for weather issues, I'd put the Baltimore Orioles at the top spot, though. Brandon Williamson is running out of positive points for the Cincinnati Reds, amassing a 5.17 SIERA, 17.0% strikeout rate, and 1.96 HR/9 to this stage. Cincinnati's bullpen is also wearing their recent shootouts with a 5.19 xFIP this month.
Williamson has actually allowed more hard contact to lefties (47.6% rate), but all nine Orioles could be righties tonight, and he's not great there, either. It's easy to like Anthony Santander ($3,200), Austin Hays ($3,000), and Aaron Hicks ($2,400) with ISOs north of .200 in the split and salaries that fit Strider well.
In tournaments, the Reds might actually be sneakier with higher salaries and a 4.69 implied team total as the 'dog. They'll get to attack low-whiff lefty Cole Irvin, who is a sinkerballer with just a 30.3% rate of grounders. Yikes. Baltimore's bullpen has also faded to a 4.24 xFIP in June (11th-worst in MLB).
If you can squeeze him in, Elly De La Cruz ($4,700) is always capable of something magical, but Matt McLain ($3,600), Jonathan India ($3,400), Spencer Steer ($3,200), and Kevin Newman ($2,700) are more likely options with one of the aces in mind.
The disappointing Seattle Mariners' offense could gain momentum tonight against Trevor Williams (4.81 SIERA) and a Washington bullpen that's struggled all season. Their 4.71 implied team total is pretty sizable given the reality of their home ballpark. Underperforming names like Jarred Kelenic ($3,000), Teoscar Hernandez ($3,000), and Ty France ($2,900) fit ideally with Strider.
Lastly, if you want to get super different around the Braves' ace and another high-salaried stack, Detroit could be a razor-sharp tournament target. With an implied team total inching toward four runs, Andrew Heaney is still struggling with gopher balls (1.49 HR/9).
Detroit has individual sticks like Javier Baez ($2,700), Spencer Torkelson ($2,600), Zack Short ($2,400), and Andy Ibanez ($2,100) who all have ISOs north of .160.