MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 6/27/23: 3 Contrarian Angles on a Loaded Slate
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves
Over 9.0 (-105)
The further you dig into the pitching duel in Atlanta, the more underwhelmed you become.
I like Minnesota's Joe Ryan and thought I might take a stab at Twins ML (+134) tonight, but his profile reveals more and more concerns when looking at batted balls. He's allowed an extremely high 48.2% flyball rate and an elevated 40.2% hard-hit rate allowed entering a lion's den.
The Bravos have a scorching .921 OPS against right-handed pitching this month, which is the best mark in baseball. Their park isn't bad for hitters in general, either.
The reason I like -- but now don't love -- the Twins is Bryce Elder's overvalued profile. Elder's 2.40 ERA is brought back to Earth by a 3.87 expected ERA (xERA), and he's a better potential target for the Twinkies than Spencer Strider was. His 10.8% swinging-strike rate isn't even close to Strider's when Minnesota strikes out at the highest rate in baseball against righties (27.1%).
In the end, the over is probably the better side when Ryan has his own shortcomings, but Elder hasn't been nearly as strong as the betting activity on this game would suggest.
Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals ML (-104)
Since Framber Valdez has been one of the best hurlers in baseball, this moneyline seems to make no sense, but it's a really close matchup.
Valdez's 2.27 ERA might be a touch overrated when he's got a 3.77 xERA behind it. Valdez's 21.8% flyball rate all but negates the home-run risk, but he still has a sizable 44.8% hard-hit rate allowed (19th percentile in MLB), so it's possible to do some damage.
Jordan Montgomery has been within a stone's throw of Valdez if you believe his xERA (3.95). Specifically, he's been sharper at home with a 3.78 xFIP, and his 35.8% hard-hit rate allowed overall is actually significantly less worrisome.
The Astros have a .746 OPS against lefties, and the Cardinals sit at .727. These are pretty close clubs until you get to the performance of their bullpens, which undid Houston on Sunday night.
This month, the Astros' 4.70 reliever xFIP has lagged significantly behind St. Louis' (4.01) as they've worn some of the inconsistencies of their young rotation. That could be a key advantage for the home side that isn't getting much love on FanDuel Sportsbook.
New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics
Athletics ML (+116)
Bookmakers are rightfully reluctant to make the Athletics a favorite...well...ever. They should be favored here.
Their best pitcher, Paul Blackburn, will toe the slab at home against a Yankees lineup that's been missing Aaron Judge and general hope and/or happiness for the month of June. New York's 68 wRC+ in June against righties is the worst mark in baseball outside of Pittsburgh.
Blackburn, a 2022 All-Star, has picked up where he left off with a 3.26 xERA and 25.6% strikeout rate since returning in May. The Yankees' starter, Jhony Brito, has had a much tougher road.
Brito had a 5.40 xERA and just a 16.7% strikeout rate, and his 11.1% barrel rate allowed is massive. It might be a bit surprising to note the A's -- thanks to the return of Seth Brown -- hasn't been too bad against righties this month (96 wRC+). They've at least been significantly better than New York.
Oakland's bullpen stinks, so I wouldn't blame anyone for going Athletics First 5 Innings ML (-110) instead, but there's a bit more juice to trust them to come through.
