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| Team | Opp SP | Opp | O/U | Moneyline | Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | Jesus Luzardo | MIA | 8 | 240 | 3.08 |
| CHW | Bailey Ober | MIN | 8 | 126 | 3.7 |
| KC | Luis Severino | NYY | 9 | 166 | 3.86 |
| BAL | Taj Bradley | TB | 8.5 | 126 | 3.93 |
| CLE | Aaron Nola | PHI | 8.5 | 118 | 4 |
| WSH | Scott Alexander | SF | 8.5 | -102 | 4.18 |
| MIL | Bryce Elder | ATL | 9.5 | 146 | 4.22 |
| MIN | Lucas Giolito | CHW | 8 | -148 | 4.3 |
| SF | MacKenzie Gore | WSH | 8.5 | -116 | 4.32 |
| CHC | Jordan Montgomery | STL | 9.5 | 118 | 4.47 |
| PHI | Xzavion Curry | CLE | 8.5 | -138 | 4.5 |
| TB | Tyler Wells | BAL | 8.5 | -148 | 4.57 |
| TEX | Emmet Sheehan | LAD | 10 | 106 | 4.84 |
| MIA | Ty Blach | COL | 8 | -295 | 4.92 |
| STL | Jameson Taillon | CHC | 9.5 | -138 | 5.03 |
| NYY | Jordan Lyles | KC | 9 | -198 | 5.14 |
| LAD | Martin Perez | TEX | 10 | -124 | 5.16 |
| ATL | Julio Teheran | MIL | 9.5 | -174 | 5.28 |
| ARI | Luke Weaver | CIN | 11 | -104 | 5.45 |
| CIN | Jose Ruiz | ARI | 11 | -112 | 5.55 |
Pitchers
Jesus Luzardo ($10,000)
After a 2.9% salary decrease to his lowest point this month, Luzardo is ranked as numberFire's top pitcher with a 38.0 FanDuel point projection against a Colorado Rockies' team with a .314 weighted on base average, a 20.8% strikeout rate, and a 5.3% barrel percentage.
While the 25-year old struggled in his last start, the Marlins' emerging southpaw has displayed solid consistency in his last nine outings, producing a 3.12 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP), a 14.5% swinging strike percentage, and eight or more strikeouts in 66% of these appearances.
With an effective 28.3% K-rate ranked second among today's slate, Luzardo has a favorable opportunity to reach his slate-high 6.83 strikeout expectation against five Colorado batters with K-rates over 27.7%.
Aaron Nola ($9,600)
At his highest salary in July after a 44.0 FanDuel point performance, Nola will face a pesky Cleveland Guardians' lineup with a low 15.8% strikeout percentage and a .318 wOBA against right-handers.
Although his matchup is not exactly ideal, Philadelphia's stud right-hander still deserves heavy consideration when observing his recent form including a 3.13 xFIP and a 29.5% K-rate in his last nine starts and today's second highest projection at 35.9 expected FanDuel points.
Taj Bradley ($8,000)
At a salary ranked ninth among today's pitchers, Tampa Bay's rookie is second on Sunday in value with a 3.86 rating and a 30.9 fantasy projection despite a recent 9.5% increase.
While some may be concerned about Bradley's current 5.29 earned run average, the 22-year old is due for a change in performance when analyzing other metrics including a 3.31 xFIP, 3.39 Skilled Interactive Earned Run Average, and an outstanding 30.6% strikeout rate.
Stacks
In a matchup versus opener Jose Ruiz and a bullpen ranked 12th with a 4.18 xFIP, the Reds' offense stands as an important decision on Sunday with a slate-high 5.55 expected run total.
Since Arizona will likely employ several pitchers against Cincinnati, ideal stacks can contain any of their best hitters with a main focus on Matt McLain (.345 expected wOBA, 11.8% barrel rate), Jake Fraley (7.4% barrel rate, .345 expected wOBA), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (.364 expected wOBA, .544 expected slugging percentage), Jonathan India (.339 expected wOBA, 7.7% barrel rate), and Spencer Steer (.334 expected wOBA, 6.1% barrel rate).
Despite yesterday's disappointing two run performance, the Diamondbacks remain a strong stack with a 5.45 expected run total against their old teammate Luke Weaver.
To best attack Weaver's inability to get outs versus left-handed bats (5.27 xFIP, 15.9% K-rate, 9.1% walk rate), potential Arizona combinations should group together Ketel Marte (.353 expected wOBA, 9.3% barrel rate), Corbin Carroll (8.7% barrel rate, .344 expected wOBA), and Alek Thomas (.250 expected average, 6.0% barrel rate) while Christian Walker (.340 expected wOBA, 10.5% barrel rate), Evan Longoria (.363 expected wOBA, 13.0% barrel rate), and Lourdes Gurriel (8.4% barrel rate) rate well enough their power to be mixed in.
Julio Teheran will make his tenth Major League start at home in a very challenging matchup against an Atlanta offense ranked third overall with a 5.28 expected run total.
Through his most recent 40.2 innings, the 32-year old right-hander has accounted fo below-average production, recording a 4.72 xFIP, 18.1% K-rate, and a 8.1% opposing barrel rate while also allowing a 5.39 xFIP this season to the opposing side of the plate.
With his main weakness in mind, Matt Olson (18.8% barrel rate, .392 expected wOBA), Ozzie Albies (.330 expected wOBA, 8.3% barrel rate), Eddie Rosario (10.7% barrel rate), and Michael Harris II (9.4% barrel rate, .331 expected wOBA) are top targets among Atlanta's elite lineup.
In an underrated spot against veteran Jordan Lyles, the Yankees contain an appealing 5.13 expected run total against a low-strikeout right-hander who often struggles against both sides of the plate (5.26 xFIP versus LHH, 5.42 xFIP versus RHH) while also allowing a 10.3% barrel rate.
Ideal New York groupings can involve their best power bats from either side including Jake Bauers (21.1% barrel rate, .333 expected wOBA), Giancarlo Stanton (15,8% barrel rate, .338 expected wOBA), Gleyber Torres (.350 expected wOBA, 8.0% barrel rate), Billy McKinney (.334 expected wOBA, 13.1% barrel rate), and Harrison Bader (7.5% barrel rate).