Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Michael Harris II To Hit a Home Run (+700)
The Atlanta Braves have a ton of power in their lineup, and with a 5.60 implied run total, they are a great team to target for props tonight.
There are a lot of great hitters we could consider from the Braves on any slate, but tonight, we are going to Michael Harris II. He has solid numbers this season versus righties with a 108 wRC+, .335 wOBA, .183 ISO, 36.7% hard-contact rate, and 31.2% fly-ball rate. Ideally, that fly-ball rate would be a bit higher, but he has great numbers elsewhere.
Harris comes in riding a nine-game hitting streak and is absolutely locked in at the plate. He has no homers over this nine-game stretch, but he's tearing the laces off the ball right now. Over this stretch, Harris has recorded a max exit velocity of 102 mph or higher in seven different games. To say he is hitting the ball hard right now would be an understatement.
Tonight, he'll be up against Adrian Houser, who is allowing a .361 wOBA, .452 SLG, 5.79 xFIP, 1.65 HR/9, 43.4% fly-ball rate, and 36.1% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters. With the way Harris is hitting the ball right now, this is an ideal matchup to put one over the wall.
Given all of that, I'll also add Harris To Record an RBI (+175).
Mookie Betts To Record an RBI (+125)
Let's not overthink things and keep it simple with one of the best hitters in the league, Mookie Betts.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a slate-high 5.66 implied run total and are expected to plate plenty of runs tonight, pointing us in a great direction for some props.
They are taking on Brandon Williamson, a lefty pitcher who has struggled this season versus righties with a .337 wOBA, .480 SLG, 5.24 xFIP, 1.96 HR/9, and 45.3% fly-ball rate. Given the number of righties in the Dodgers' lineup, this could be a rough outing for Williamson.
Betts is an elite hitter, and if I get a plus money prop for him, I'm going to take it every time. Mookie comes in with a 179 wRC+, .436 wOBA, .407 ISO, 57.9% fly-ball rate, and 47.4% hard-contact rate versus lefty pitches this season. I'm keeping it simple with Mookie's RBI prop tonight.
Mitch Keller Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)
When it comes to a strikeout prop tonight, under 5.5 for Mitch Keller is the spot I'm looking at.
Keller got off to a blistering start this season but has slowly been cooling off since then. On the year, he has a 25.4% strikeout rate and 8.9% swinging-strike rate, which are simply okay.
Lately, we've seen those numbers drop for Keller, combined with the fact he's been struggling with home runs, too. Over the last five games, Keller posted a strikeout rate of 20.8% or lower in three of those games, along with a swinging-strike rate of 6.1% or lower three times. Whatever feel for the ball Keller had early in the season, he's seemingly lost it.
We also have to factor in that there could be some rain in Pittsburgh tonight. If the game starts for a few innings and then moves into a rain delay, Keller might not return to the mound after an extended delay. We see that happen all the time for starting pitchers in MLB.
Also, the matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies isn't overwhelmingly amazing for strikeouts. They come in with a 23.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is 13th in the league, or just 0.6 percentage points worse than the league average. This is a middle-of-the-road matchup for Keller, who hasn't been at the top of his game lately.