MLB
Will Jimmy Paredes' Production Continue?
Profiling the success of O's Slugger Jimmy Paredes

FanGraphs.com) in order to see what pitches he's hitting well, and which offerings may present him some trouble in the coming future.

For some background on this statistic, zero is average, positive produces value, and negative provides for below league average value. No surprise here, but Parades is hitting the fastball well, posting 3.0 fastball runs above average.

With regard to the breaking ball, he's posted positive values across the board, with 3.6 slider runs above average and a 1.4 curveball runs above average. Given historical context, it's possible that Paredes could post positive value with the respective breaking pitches as he has had success with the offerings previously.

A pitch that Paredes has struggled with during his big league stint has been the changeup, with a career total of -6.2 changeup runs above average, and this will likely be a cause for struggle moving forward.

In summary, he'll likely still hit the fastball well, performance against the slider will regress to a healthy degree, the change-up will be the bane of his existence, and he should remain stagnant or slightly improve his performance against the curveball. This, of course, all depends on how pitchers choose to attack him.

Some Regression Due

Lastly, we can take a look at Paredes' plate discipline, contact and swing percentages. Other than a sky-high BABIP, this is probably the best tool in forecasting regression.

FanGraphs defines Z-Swing% as the rate at which a batter swings at pitches inside the strike zone. His Z-swing% is in a much better place thus far this year, at a career high of 79.6%, up from 71.9% last year. By swinging at more pitches in the strike zone, he is selecting higher quality pitches, thus rendering his chances for a well hit ball greater. This would help explain his success thus far. Unless Paredes has made permanent changes to that swinging tendency, then we will see that rate fall closer to his career average and his batting average on balls in play will follow in trending south.

Final Word

Paredes' value doesn't come from him channeling the likes of George Herman Ruth, but from his super-utility versatility and the pop and speed that comes along with it. I say everything to say this: The Paredes parade will not continue, but this year may turn out to be a bit of a revelation for the 26 year old. The Orioles have a good, versatile piece that they should be able to plug and play if his stick continues to perform above career average.

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