By now, you're probably familiar with FanGraphs, hitters are making contact on 90.9% of Keuchel’s offerings in the strike zone, which to my surprise, ranks only 13th in baseball. This means that Keuchel is really generating his swings-and-misses on pitches outside the zone. His 64.0% O-Swing%, or contact on pitches outside the strike zone, is third-best of pitchers in the top 30 of Z-Contact%, behind only He told FanGraphs’ David Laurila that he’ll “take [his] odds of them hitting the ball to somebody†and that that “pitching to contact is about not being afraid.â€
“I’ll never try to miss a bat unless there’s a runner at third base and less than two out,†Keuchel told Laurila. “I will always try to pitch to contact, because I want to keep my pitch count low and go deep in the game. I’ll take strikeouts when I get them, but I’m not looking to miss bats.â€
This is refreshing. So many pitchers are blowing their arms out from overuse or overexertion, but it looks like Keuchel has managed his success while a) going deeper into games than others and b) minimizing his risk of injury.
Home Dominance
Pay attention, DFS players. Keuchel has been dominant at home this year, with his May 15th matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays being the only time he has allowed more than two runs at home. He allowed four runs in sixth innings to the best lefty-mashing lineup in the league, so that isn’t too bad in context, either.
However, he hasn’t been the same on the road, allowing a wOBA 66 points higher. In his nine starts outside Minute Maid Park, he has allowed three or more runs five times. Still good, just not as good.
When Not in the Windup, His Performance Suffers
Like many other starters, Keuchel is best out of the windup, allowing a .223 wOBA with no runners on base. With runners on, that number balloons to .284. It's a bit of an underrated aspect of pitching; having to pitch out of the windup and stretch effectively to start. Keuchel's discrepancy between the two states is certainly not the largest, but is not the smallest.
I'm a little intrigued to find out whether Keuchel’s profile as a heavy ground-baller is responsible, or if he just pitches better out of the windup and without a runner to worry about. But that is for another time. Watch the All-Star Game, and enjoy Keuchel pitching on a national stage for an inning or two.