Opening Day starter Justin Verlander winds up and deals to the number one fantasy catcher, Joe Mauer. With his picture-perfect stroke, Mauer swings and nails a liner to right-center field and drives in a run, just as he did in once per every 6.3 at-bats last season. The Minnesota fans go wild, and Mauer is off to yet another high-offense season.
What, you thought this was a throwback from 2009? Welcome back to the world of Mumford and Sons and Google Glass, my friend: Joe Mauer is once again the best fantasy catching prospect around.
Despite holding an Average Draft Position (ADP) as the fifth-best catcher in most drafts, you'll want to shoot him up your own personal draft board. And Buster Posey, meanwhile, should take a hard fall down.
This is a look at the top catchers available in Fantasy Baseball this year, doing it as only numberFire can: by the stats.
Frequently Asked Questions
Before we get into the meat of the list, I asked Chief Analyst Keith Goldner to break down the rankings and exactly what you should know about these numbers.
1. What type of scoring is this list based on?
The rankings are based on a category 12-team league. Categories are 5x5: SB, HR, Runs, RBI, Avg and W, K, SV, ERA, WHIP.
2. What exactly does the nF score measure, and how does that help my fantasy team?
The numberFire score takes a player's contributions across all categories versus a replacement level player that you could find on free agents. After summing the total contribution, each player's rating is then adjusted for his position eligibility based on the value of each position throughout the league due to position scarcity. For example, a catcher and outfielder with the same numbers will rank the catcher as the higher player due to the fact that it is a weak position.
3. Position scarcity? But the top catcher is at No. 47 and the top shortstop at No. 35! Should I really wait that long to grab those positions?
Simply put, yes.
4. Where do the projections come from, and why should I trust them more than anyone else?
The projections come from the same place that all our projections come from. First, we evaluate all players and teams using our advanced metrics. Then, we find the most comparable players playing on the most comparable teams historically, weighting each comparison according to that similarity. We then take those comparable players' historical stat lines as the building blocks for the projections.
With that out of the way, let's get to the list, based on our MLB Draft Kit!
Top Ten Catchers for 2013
1. ESPN's Park Factors, the Cell allowed the fourth-most home runs last season. But look at No. 7 on that list; A.J.'s new gig in Texas won't be much worse for hitting round-trippers.
9. Alex Avila - Detroit Tigers
| Overall | ADP | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OPS | nF Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #219 | 236.19 | 554 | 68 | 21 | 76 | 2 | 0.259 | 0.832 | 1.32 |
Regression to the mean works two ways. It means that players who had an extraordinary season, like Buster Posey, are likely to come back down to earth. But it also means that a player who finished 12th in the 2011 AL MVP voting will be likely to return to form after a down 2012. Ladies and gentlemen, get reacquainted with Alex Avila.
Avila's main fantasy concerns in 2012 were simple at-bats (he only played in 116 games) and a substantial decrease in power. Going from 19 home runs in 2011 to nine home runs in 2012 has to mean something, right?
Nope. In fact, he actually hit more balls to the outfield; only three percent of his fly balls were on the infield as compared to six percent in 2011. It's just that the ball didn't travel as well as normal: only 6.6 percent of his fly balls went for home runs, as compared to 9.5 percent in 2011 and a 8.5 percent career average. Expect the young hitter to get back to average or perhaps surpass it this season, and he could surprise with some late-round power and RBI totals at a position where both of those are at a premium.
10. Salvador Perez - Kansas City Royals
| Overall | ADP | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OPS | nF Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #235 | 136.83 | 488 | 53 | 15 | 65 | 2 | 0.293 | 0.795 | 1.02 |
22 years old, playing in a burgeoning lineup, and he hit .301 in about half of the season last year. I think I just heard Eric Karabell gasp from here. A high-upside, must-risk candidate? Perhaps... but also a candidate for a quick trip to the waiver wire if he doesn't pan out.
The problem with Perez is sample size; sure, it would be nice to base everything off of his 305 plate appearances, 11 home runs, and .301 batting average last season, but it will be tough to maintain that pace for an entire season against pitchers who will learn his tendencies. In addition, there are plenty of red flags that indicate his production will go down, including a low 3.9 percent walk rate and an increase in ground-ball to fly-ball ratio between 2010 and 2011.
Honestly, I like him as an upside play more than Miguel Montero this year for where he's going in terms of average draft position. But even the 11th round might be a tiny bit early for a guy who doesn't have a statistical basis to continue his production.