After taking a look at the MLB Draft Kit and average draft positions taken from FFToolbox.com.
Frequently Asked Questions
Before we get into the meat of the list, I asked Chief Analyst Keith Goldner to break down the rankings and exactly what you should know about these numbers.
1. What type of scoring is this list based on?
The rankings are based on a category 12-team league. Categories are 5x5: SB, HR, Runs, RBI, Avg and W, K, SV, ERA, WHIP.
2. What exactly does the nF score measure, and how does that help my fantasy team?
The numberFire score takes a player's contributions across all categories versus a replacement level player that you could find on free agents. After summing the total contribution, each player's rating is then adjusted for his position eligibility based on the value of each position throughout the league due to position scarcity. For example, a catcher and outfielder with the same numbers will rank the catcher as the higher player due to the fact that it is a weak position.
3. Position scarcity? But the top catcher is at No. 47 and the top shortstop at No. 35! Should I really wait that long to grab those positions?
Simply put, yes.
4. Where do the projections come from, and why should I trust them more than anyone else?
The projections come from the same place that all our projections come from. First, we evaluate all players and teams using our advanced metrics. Then, we find the most comparable players playing on the most comparable teams historically, weighting each comparison according to that similarity. We then take those comparable players' historical stat lines as the building blocks for the projections.
With that out of the way, let's get to the list.
Top Ten First Basemen for 2013
1. too much better than the Angels' home park at allowing home runs last season, but the ballpark (or AL pitching) does seem to have hurt him.
What I'm not as worried about, though, is his lower on-base percentage from last season. If there's one thing that you could count on from Pujols in St. Louis, it's that he wouldn't miss; his 11.3 percent strikeout rate from last season was his worst since his 2001 rookie season. The walks weren't much better; his 7.8 percent walk rate was the worst of his career.
Am I expecting a return to peak form? Not at this point. But I am expecting a regression to the mean, which for Pujols, is a very solid mean. Strikeouts and walks historically don't vary as wildly when players switch teams; that has more to do with personal eye. It's much easier to dismiss those numbers as outliers than his power stats.
2. No. 1 home run park in 2012 to the No. 17 park, and you can do it without giving up too much value. It's called: don't actually swing at everything in the area code of the strike zone. Novel concept, huh?
It might be heresy (and hilarious) to think of Prince Fielder as a singles hitter (beat out that grounder, Prince!), but for the purposes of fantasy last season, his BA and OBP stats were as important as his HR and RBI stats. Fielder's home run metrics took a similar dip as Pujols': his 4.4 percent home run rate and his 11.4 percent of fly balls turning into home runs were his lowest percentages since his rookie year. He countered that, though, with a career-low 12.2 percent strikeout rate and a 12.3 percent walk rate that was in line with his career average. Fielder finished last season with his second straight 0.99 K:BB ratio, his best ever.
That's why, even with "only" 33 home runs, we still have Prince Fielder in the top five instead of falling out of the first round, as others do. Will his power return to Milwaukee form? Probably not. Can he make up for it in other ways? Absolutely.
3. baseball-reference is Mike Trout. Meanwhile, using our data, his top comparable is 2010 Kevin Youkilis. That may say something about the expectations people have for Craig (Trout-like) against the level he's actually playing at right now (Youkilis-like).
In his first full season in St. Louis, Craig performed admirably enough. A .307 batting average and 22 home runs is nothing to sneeze at, I suppose. But I'd caution against getting too hyped for Craig's ceiling.
With his sad 7.2 percent walk rate, Craig's seventh-place NL batting average finish falls out of the top 15 for on-base percentage. His home run rate actually went down from his limited 2011 time, from 5.2 percent to 4.9 percent. And while his strikeouts also decreased to 17.3 percent, that number is still higher than the previous four players on this list. The scariest number for me, though, may be 11: that's the percentage of his fly balls that don't even make it out of the infield.
10. Paul Goldschmidt - Arizona Diamondbacks
| Overall | ADP | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OPS | nF Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #64 | 21.02 | 596 | 78 | 24 | 79 | 8 | 0.272 | 0.851 | 5.03 |
I want to like Paul Goldschmidt. He was born in Wilmington, Delaware, after all; I have to stick with my Delaware boys. But a second or third round selection on the basis of that unknown "potential"? I'll pass with ease, thank you.
Here's the truth about Goldschmidt entering this season. His 3.4 percent home run rate was the lowest of anyone on this top ten other than Adrian Gonzalez last year (who has shown his can hit for power in the MLB). His 22.2 percent strikeout rate is the highest of anyone on this top ten. Even at a 10.2 percent walk rate, his 2.17 K:BB ratio was horrendous. And of his fly balls hit, 9.2 percent went for home runs while eight percent were pop-ups on the infield.
This is who I'm trusting my fantasy team to? Let's say, as we have here, that he improves by 15-20 percent in his power, walk, and at-bat categories this season, while sacrificing a bit of average for power. That's not unreasonable, and in fact, the Diamondbacks would be happy, right? Well, for fantasy purposes, it would still only place him around a sixth or seventh-round selection.
And if you're enamored by potential over the value of statistical analysis, then why are you looking for the stats answer anyway? Just let the owner of "geezers" Teixiera or Konerko walk on by.